Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Observed Trends and Teleconnections of the Siberian High: A Recently Declining Center of Action

Fotis Panagiotopoulos Department of Geography, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

Search for other papers by Fotis Panagiotopoulos in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Maria Shahgedanova Department of Geography, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

Search for other papers by Maria Shahgedanova in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Abdelwaheb Hannachi Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

Search for other papers by Abdelwaheb Hannachi in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
, and
David B. Stephenson Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

Search for other papers by David B. Stephenson in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
01 May 2005
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3352.1
Page(s):
1411–1422
Restricted access

Abstract

This study investigates variability in the intensity of the wintertime Siberian high (SH) by defining a robust SH index (SHI) and correlating it with selected meteorological fields and teleconnection indices. A dramatic trend of –2.5 hPa decade−1 has been found in the SHI between 1978 and 2001 with unprecedented (since 1871) low values of the SHI. The weakening of the SH has been confirmed by analyzing different historical gridded analyses and individual station observations of sea level pressure (SLP) and excluding possible effects from the conversion of surface pressure to SLP.

SHI correlation maps with various meteorological fields show that SH impacts on circulation and temperature patterns extend far outside the SH source area extending from the Arctic to the tropical Pacific. Advection of warm air from eastern Europe has been identified as the main mechanism causing milder than normal conditions over the Kara and Laptev Seas in association with a strong SH. Despite the strong impacts of the variability in the SH on climatic variability across the Northern Hemisphere, correlations between the SHI and the main teleconnection indices of the Northern Hemisphere are weak. Regression analysis has shown that teleconnection indices are not able to reproduce the interannual variability and trends in the SH. The inclusion of regional surface temperature in the regression model provides closer agreement between the original and reconstructed SHI.

Corresponding author address: Fotis Panagiotopoulos, Dept. of Geography, University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading RG6 6AB, United Kingdom. Email: f.panagiotopoulos@reading.ac.uk

Abstract

This study investigates variability in the intensity of the wintertime Siberian high (SH) by defining a robust SH index (SHI) and correlating it with selected meteorological fields and teleconnection indices. A dramatic trend of –2.5 hPa decade−1 has been found in the SHI between 1978 and 2001 with unprecedented (since 1871) low values of the SHI. The weakening of the SH has been confirmed by analyzing different historical gridded analyses and individual station observations of sea level pressure (SLP) and excluding possible effects from the conversion of surface pressure to SLP.

SHI correlation maps with various meteorological fields show that SH impacts on circulation and temperature patterns extend far outside the SH source area extending from the Arctic to the tropical Pacific. Advection of warm air from eastern Europe has been identified as the main mechanism causing milder than normal conditions over the Kara and Laptev Seas in association with a strong SH. Despite the strong impacts of the variability in the SH on climatic variability across the Northern Hemisphere, correlations between the SHI and the main teleconnection indices of the Northern Hemisphere are weak. Regression analysis has shown that teleconnection indices are not able to reproduce the interannual variability and trends in the SH. The inclusion of regional surface temperature in the regression model provides closer agreement between the original and reconstructed SHI.

Corresponding author address: Fotis Panagiotopoulos, Dept. of Geography, University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading RG6 6AB, United Kingdom. Email: f.panagiotopoulos@reading.ac.uk

Save
Cover Journal of Climate
Journal of Climate

  • Allan, R., J. Lindesay, and D. E. Parker, 1996: El Nino Southern Oscillation and Climatic Variability. CSIRO, 416 pp.

  • Box, G. E. P., and G. M. Jenkins, 1976: Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day, 575 pp.

  • Cheang, B-K., 1987: Short- and long-range monsoon prediction in Southeast Asia. Monsoons, J. S. Fein and P. L. Stephens, Eds., John Wiley, 579–606.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Clark, M. P., M. C. Serreze, and D. A. Robinson, 1999: Atmospheric controls on Eurasian snow extent. Int. J. Climatol., 19 , 27–40.

  • Cohen, J., and D. Entekhabi, 1999: Eurasian snow cover variability and Northern Hemisphere climate predictability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26 , 345–348.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Deser, C., J. E. Walsh, and M. S. Timlin, 2000: Arctic sea ice variability in the context of recent atmospheric circulation trends. J. Climate, 13 , 617–633.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gillett, N. P., F. W. Zwiers, A. J. Weaver, and P. A. Stott, 2003: Detection of human influence on sea-level pressure. Nature, 422 , 292–294.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Henderson, R., 1916: Note on graduation by adjusted average. Trans. Amer. Soc. Actuar., 17 , 43–48.

  • Houghton, J. T., Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C. A. Johnson, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge University Press, 881 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Jhun, J. G., and E. J. Lee, 2004: A new East Asian winter monsoon index and associated characteristics of the winter monsoon. J. Climate, 17 , 711–726.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Jones, P. D., 1987: The early twentieth century Arctic High—Fact or fiction? Climate Dyn., 1 , 63–75.

  • Jones, P. D., M. New, D. E. Parker, S. Martin, and I. G. Rigor, 1999: Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years. Rev. Geophys., 37 , 173–199.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Junge, M. M., and D. B. Stephenson, 2003: Mediated and direct effects of the North Atlantic Ocean on winter temperatures in northwest Europe. Int. J. Climatol., 23 , 245–261.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kenny, P., and J. Durbin, 1982: Local trend estimation and seasonal adjustment of economic and social time series. J. Roy. Stat. Soc., 145A , 1–41.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lydolf, P. E., 1977: Climates of the Soviet Union. Elsevier, 443 pp.

  • Manabe, S., and R. J. Stouffer, 1994: Multiple-century response of a coupled ocean–atmosphere model to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide. J. Climate, 7 , 5–23.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mokhov, I. I., and V. K. Petukhov, 1999: Atmospheric centers of action and tendencies of their change. Izv. Acad. Sci. USSR, Atmos. Oceanic Phys., 36 , 292–299.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Panagiotopoulos, F., M. Shahgedanova, and D. B. Stephenson, 2002: A review of Northern Hemisphere winter-time teleconnection patterns. J. Phys. IV, 12 , 1027–1047.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Przybylak, R., 2000: Temporal and spatial variation of surface air temperature over the period of instrumental observations in the Arctic. Int.J. Climatol., 20 , 587–614.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rogers, J. C., 1997: North Atlantic storm track variability and its association to the North Atlantic Oscillation and climate variability of northern Europe. J. Climate, 10 , 1635–1647.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Sahsamanoglou, H. S., T. J. Makrogiannis, and P. P. Kallimopoulos, 1991: Some aspects of the basic characteristics of the Siberian anticyclone. Int. J. Climatol., 11 , 827–839.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Shahgedanova, M., and M. Kuznetsov, 2002: The Arctic environments. The Physical Geography of Northern Eurasia, M. Shahgedanova, Ed., Oxford University Press, 70–102.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Stephenson, D. B., V. Pavan, and R. Bojariu, 2000: Is the North Atlantic Oscillation a random walk? Int. J. Climatol., 20 , 1–18.

  • Stephenson, D. B., H. Wanner, S. Brönnimann, and J. Luterbacher, 2002: The history of scientific research on the North Atlantic Oscillation. The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climate Significance and Environmental Impact, Geophys. Monogr., No. 134, Amer. Geophys. Union, 37–50.

  • Thompson, D. W. J., and J. M. Wallace, 1998: The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25 , 1297–1300.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Trenberth, K. E., and D. A. Paolino, 1980: The Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure data set: Trends, errors, and discontinuities. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108 , 855–872.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Zwiers, F. W., and H. von Storch, 1995: Taking serial correlation into account in tests of the mean. J. Climate, 8 , 336–351.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 1777 763 46
PDF Downloads 1165 302 34