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Trends in Block-Seasonal Extreme Rainfall over the Iberian Peninsula in the Second Half of the Twentieth Century

JoséAgustín GarcíaDepartamento de Física, Universidad de Extremadura, Badajoz, Spain

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María Cruz GallegoDepartamento de Física, Universidad de Extremadura, Badajoz, Spain

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Antonio SerranoDepartamento de Física, Universidad de Extremadura, Badajoz, Spain

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JoséManuel VaqueroDepartamento de Física, Universidad de Extremadura, Badajoz, Spain

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Abstract

In this study trends in extreme rainfall over the Iberian Peninsula at a daily scale in the second half of the twentieth century have been detected and analyzed. For this goal 35 stations evenly distributed over the region of study covering the period 1958–97 have been studied. Two different approaches have been used. The first one consists of the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and the Sen method. The second approach is based on the statistical theory of extreme values, involving time-dependent parameters in order to be able to reflect possible temporal changes in the frequency distribution. Results from both methods agree, confirming the reliability of the analysis. Negative trends are found for the west and southwest of the Iberian Peninsula in spring and winter. In autumn a spatial dipolar pattern appears, but trends are not so evident.

Corresponding author address: J. A. García, Departamento de Física, Universidad de Extremadura, 06071 Badajoz, Spain. Email: agustin@unex.es

Abstract

In this study trends in extreme rainfall over the Iberian Peninsula at a daily scale in the second half of the twentieth century have been detected and analyzed. For this goal 35 stations evenly distributed over the region of study covering the period 1958–97 have been studied. Two different approaches have been used. The first one consists of the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and the Sen method. The second approach is based on the statistical theory of extreme values, involving time-dependent parameters in order to be able to reflect possible temporal changes in the frequency distribution. Results from both methods agree, confirming the reliability of the analysis. Negative trends are found for the west and southwest of the Iberian Peninsula in spring and winter. In autumn a spatial dipolar pattern appears, but trends are not so evident.

Corresponding author address: J. A. García, Departamento de Física, Universidad de Extremadura, 06071 Badajoz, Spain. Email: agustin@unex.es

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