Is the Upper Ocean Warming? Comparisons of 50-Year Trends from Different Analyses

Mark Carson Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, and School of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

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D. E. Harrison Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, and School of Oceanography, University of Washington, and NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington

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Abstract

There is great interest in World Ocean temperature trends, yet the historical global ocean database has very uneven coverage in space and time. Previous work on 50-yr upper ocean temperature trends from the NOAA ocean data archive is extended here. Trends at depths from 50 to 1000 m are examined, based on observations gridded over larger regions than in the earlier study. Despite the use of larger grid boxes, most of the ocean does not have significant 50-yr trends at the 90% confidence level (CL). In fact only 30% of the ocean at 50 m has 90% CL trends, and the percentage decreases significantly with increasing depth. As noted in the previous study, there is much spatial structure in 50-yr trends, with areas of strong warming and strong cooling. These trend results are compared with trends calculated from data interpolated to standard levels and from a highly horizontally interpolated version of the dataset that has been used in previous heat content trend studies. The regional trend results can differ substantially, even in the areas with statistically significant trends. Trends based on the more interpolated analyses show more warming. Together with major temporal and spatial sampling limitations, the previously described strong interdecadal and spatial variability of trends makes it very difficult to formally estimate uncertainty in World Ocean averages, but these results suggest that upper ocean heat content integrals and integral trends may be substantially more uncertain than has yet been acknowledged. Further exploration of uncertainties is needed.

* Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory Publication Number 3073 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Contribution Number 1402

Corresponding author address: Mark Carson, School of Oceanography, University of Washington, Box 357940, Seattle, WA 98195-7940. Email: mark.carson@noaa.gov

Abstract

There is great interest in World Ocean temperature trends, yet the historical global ocean database has very uneven coverage in space and time. Previous work on 50-yr upper ocean temperature trends from the NOAA ocean data archive is extended here. Trends at depths from 50 to 1000 m are examined, based on observations gridded over larger regions than in the earlier study. Despite the use of larger grid boxes, most of the ocean does not have significant 50-yr trends at the 90% confidence level (CL). In fact only 30% of the ocean at 50 m has 90% CL trends, and the percentage decreases significantly with increasing depth. As noted in the previous study, there is much spatial structure in 50-yr trends, with areas of strong warming and strong cooling. These trend results are compared with trends calculated from data interpolated to standard levels and from a highly horizontally interpolated version of the dataset that has been used in previous heat content trend studies. The regional trend results can differ substantially, even in the areas with statistically significant trends. Trends based on the more interpolated analyses show more warming. Together with major temporal and spatial sampling limitations, the previously described strong interdecadal and spatial variability of trends makes it very difficult to formally estimate uncertainty in World Ocean averages, but these results suggest that upper ocean heat content integrals and integral trends may be substantially more uncertain than has yet been acknowledged. Further exploration of uncertainties is needed.

* Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory Publication Number 3073 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Contribution Number 1402

Corresponding author address: Mark Carson, School of Oceanography, University of Washington, Box 357940, Seattle, WA 98195-7940. Email: mark.carson@noaa.gov

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