Article Type:
Research Article

A Comparison of Climate Prediction and Simulation over the Tropical Pacific

Vasubandhu Misra Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Inc., Calverton, Maryland

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L. Marx Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Inc., Calverton, Maryland

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M. Fennessy Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Inc., Calverton, Maryland

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B. Kirtman Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Inc., Calverton, Maryland

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J. L. Kinter III Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Inc., Calverton, Maryland

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Print Publication:
15 Jul 2008
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI1932.1
Page(s):
3601–3611
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Abstract

This study compares an ensemble of seasonal hindcasts with a multidecadal integration from the same global coupled climate model over the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is shown that the annual mean state of the SST and its variability are different over the tropical Pacific Ocean in the two operating modes of the model.

These differences are symptoms of an inherent difference in the physics of coupled air–sea interactions and upper ocean variability. It is argued that in the presence of large coupled model errors and in the absence of coupled data assimilation, the competing and at times additive influence of the initialization and model errors can change the behavior of the air–sea interaction physics and upper ocean dynamics.

Corresponding author address: Vasubandhu Misra, Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Inc., 4041 Powder Mill Road, Suite 302, Calverton, MD 20705. Email: misra@cola.iges.org

Abstract

This study compares an ensemble of seasonal hindcasts with a multidecadal integration from the same global coupled climate model over the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is shown that the annual mean state of the SST and its variability are different over the tropical Pacific Ocean in the two operating modes of the model.

These differences are symptoms of an inherent difference in the physics of coupled air–sea interactions and upper ocean variability. It is argued that in the presence of large coupled model errors and in the absence of coupled data assimilation, the competing and at times additive influence of the initialization and model errors can change the behavior of the air–sea interaction physics and upper ocean dynamics.

Corresponding author address: Vasubandhu Misra, Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Inc., 4041 Powder Mill Road, Suite 302, Calverton, MD 20705. Email: misra@cola.iges.org

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