The Role of the Western Arabian Sea Upwelling in Indian Monsoon Rainfall Variability

Takeshi Izumo Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan, and Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentation et Approches Numériques, IPSL, Paris, France

Search for other papers by Takeshi Izumo in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Clémentde Boyer Montégut Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan

Search for other papers by Clémentde Boyer Montégut in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Jing-Jia Luo Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan

Search for other papers by Jing-Jia Luo in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Swadhin K. Behera Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan

Search for other papers by Swadhin K. Behera in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Sébastien Masson Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentation et Approches Numériques, IPSL, Paris, France

Search for other papers by Sébastien Masson in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
Toshio Yamagata Department of Earth and Planetary Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, and Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan

Search for other papers by Toshio Yamagata in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall has complex, regionally heterogeneous, interannual variations with huge socioeconomic impacts, but the underlying mechanisms remain uncertain. The upwelling along the Somalia and Oman coasts starts in late spring, peaks during the summer monsoon, and strongly cools the sea surface temperature (SST) in the western Arabian Sea. They restrict the westward extent of the Indian Ocean warm pool, which is the main moisture source for the monsoon rainfall. Thus, variations of the Somalia–Oman upwelling can have significant impacts on the moisture transport toward India. Here the authors use both observations and an advanced coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model to show that a decrease in upwelling strengthens monsoon rainfall along the west coast of India by increasing the SST along the Somalia–Oman coasts, and thus local evaporation and water vapor transport toward the Indian Western Ghats (mountains). Further observational analysis reveals that such decreases in upwelling are caused by anomalously weak southwesterly winds in late spring over the Arabian Sea that are due to warm SST/increased precipitation anomalies over the Seychelles–Chagos thermocline ridge of the southwestern Indian Ocean (and vice versa for years with strong upwelling/weak west Indian summer monsoon rainfall). The latter SST/precipitation anomalies are often related to El Niño conditions and the strength of the Indonesian–Australian monsoon during the previous winter. This sheds new light on the ability to forecast the poorly predicted Indian monsoon rainfall on a regional scale, helped by a proper ocean observing/forecasting system in the western tropical Indian Ocean.

Corresponding author address: Takeshi Izumo, Climate Variations Research Program, FRCGC, JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan. Email: izumo@jamstec.go.jp

Abstract

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall has complex, regionally heterogeneous, interannual variations with huge socioeconomic impacts, but the underlying mechanisms remain uncertain. The upwelling along the Somalia and Oman coasts starts in late spring, peaks during the summer monsoon, and strongly cools the sea surface temperature (SST) in the western Arabian Sea. They restrict the westward extent of the Indian Ocean warm pool, which is the main moisture source for the monsoon rainfall. Thus, variations of the Somalia–Oman upwelling can have significant impacts on the moisture transport toward India. Here the authors use both observations and an advanced coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model to show that a decrease in upwelling strengthens monsoon rainfall along the west coast of India by increasing the SST along the Somalia–Oman coasts, and thus local evaporation and water vapor transport toward the Indian Western Ghats (mountains). Further observational analysis reveals that such decreases in upwelling are caused by anomalously weak southwesterly winds in late spring over the Arabian Sea that are due to warm SST/increased precipitation anomalies over the Seychelles–Chagos thermocline ridge of the southwestern Indian Ocean (and vice versa for years with strong upwelling/weak west Indian summer monsoon rainfall). The latter SST/precipitation anomalies are often related to El Niño conditions and the strength of the Indonesian–Australian monsoon during the previous winter. This sheds new light on the ability to forecast the poorly predicted Indian monsoon rainfall on a regional scale, helped by a proper ocean observing/forecasting system in the western tropical Indian Ocean.

Corresponding author address: Takeshi Izumo, Climate Variations Research Program, FRCGC, JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan. Email: izumo@jamstec.go.jp

Save
  • Alory, G., S. Wijffels, and G. Meyers, 2007: Observed temperature trends in the Indian Ocean over 1960–1999 and associated mechanisms. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34 .L02606, doi:10.1029/2006GL028044.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Annamalai, H., and R. Murtugudde, 2004: Role of the Indian Ocean in regional climate variability. Earth’s Climate: The Ocean–Atmosphere Interaction, Geophys. Monogr., Vol. 147, Amer. Geophys. Union, 213–246.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Annamalai, H., and P. Liu, 2005: Response of the Asian summer monsoon to changes in El Niño properties. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131 , 805831.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Annamalai, H., and K. R. Sperber, 2005: Regional heat sources and the active and break phases of boreal summer intraseasonal (30–50 day) variability. J. Atmos. Sci., 62 , 27262748.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Annamalai, H., P. Liu, and S. P. Xie, 2005: Southwest Indian Ocean SST variability: Its local effect and remote influence on Asian monsoons. J. Climate, 18 , 41504167.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Annamalai, H., K. Hamilton, and K. R. Sperber, 2007: South Asian summer monsoon and its relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 simulation. J. Climate, 20 , 10711092.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Arpe, K., L. Dümenil, and M. A. Giorgetta, 1998: Variability of the Indian monsoon in the ECHAM3 model: Sensitivity to sea surface temperature, soil moisture, and the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation. J. Climate, 11 , 18371858.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ashok, K., Z. Y. Guan, and T. Yamagata, 2001: Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28 , 44994502.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Behera, S. K., J-J. Luo, S. Masson, S. A. Rao, H. Sakuma, and T. Yamagata, 2006: A GCM study on the interaction between IOD and ENSO. J. Climate, 19 , 16881705.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brock, J., and C. McClain, 1992: Interannual variability in phytoplankton blooms observed in the northwestern Arabian Sea during the southwest monsoon. J. Geophys. Res., 97 , C1. 733750.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cadet, D. L., and S. Greco, 1987: Water-vapor transport over the Indian Ocean during the 1979 summer monsoon. Part I. Water vapor fluxes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115 , 653663.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chang, C-P., and T. Li, 2000: A theory of the tropical tropospheric biennial oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci., 57 , 22092224.

  • Charney, J. G., and A. Eliassen, 1964: On the growth of the hurricane depression. J. Atmos. Sci., 21 , 6875.

  • Chen, M. Y., P. P. Xie, J. E. Janowiak, and P. Arkin, 2002: Global land precipitation: A 50-yr monthly analysis based on gauge observations. J. Hydrometeor., 3 , 249266.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • de Boyer Montégut, C., G. Madec, A. S. Fischer, A. Lazar, and D. Iudicone, 2004: Mixed layer depth over the global ocean: An examination of profile data and a profile-based climatology. J. Geophys. Res., 109 .C12003, doi:10.1029/2004JC002378.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • de Boyer Montégut, C., J. Vialard, S. S. Shenoi, D. Shankar, F. Durand, C. Ethé, and G. Madec, 2007: Simulated seasonal and interannual variability of mixed layer heat budget in the northern Indian Ocean. J. Climate, 20 , 32493268.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Duvel, J-P., H. Bellenger, C. Basdevant, G. Reverdin, A. Vargas, and J. Vialard, 2008: The Aeroclipper: A new device to explore convective systems and cyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Findlater, J., 1969: A major low-level air current near the Indian Ocean during the northern summer. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 95 , 362380.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fischer, A. S., R. A. Weller, D. L. Rudnick, C. C. Eriksen, C. M. Lee, K. H. Brink, C. A. Fox, and R. R. Leben, 2002: Mesoscale eddies, coastal upwelling, and the upper-ocean heat budget in the Arabian Sea. Deep-Sea Res. II, 49 , 22312264.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gadgil, S., M. Rajeevan, and R. Nanjundiah, 2005: Monsoon prediction—Why yet another failure? Curr. Sci., 88 , 13891400.

  • Gill, A. E., 1980: Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 106 , 447462.

  • Goes, J. I., P. G. Thoppil, H. R. Gomes, and J. T. Fasullo, 2005: Warming of the Eurasian landmass is making the Arabian Sea more productive. Science, 308 , 545548.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hahn, D. G., and J. Shukla, 1976: An apparent relationship between Eurasian snow cover and Indian monsoon rainfall. J. Atmos. Sci., 33 , 24612462.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Halpern, D., and P. M. Woiceshyn, 2001: Somali jet in the Arabian Sea, El Niño, and India rainfall. J. Climate, 14 , 434441.

  • Hermes, J. C., and C. J. C. Reason, 2008: Annual cycle of the South Indian Ocean (Seychelles-Chagos) thermocline ridge in a regional ocean model. J. Geophys. Res., 113 .C04035, doi:10.1029/2007JC004363.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Holton, J. R., 1992: An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology. 3rd ed. Academic Press, 511 pp.

  • Huang, B., and J. L. Kinter, 2002: Interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 107 .3199, doi:10.1029/2001JC001278.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 2007a: Mechanisms for the interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Part I: The role of remote forcing from the tropical Pacific. J. Climate, 20 , 29172936.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 2007b: Mechanisms for the interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Part II: Regional processes. J. Climate, 20 , 29372960.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Joseph, P. V., 1990: Monsoon variability in relation to equatorial trough activity over India and west Pacific Oceans. Mausam, 41 , 291296.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Joseph, P. V., J. K. Eischeid, and R. J. Pyle, 1994: Interannual variability of the onset of the Indian summer monsoon and its association with atmospheric features, El Niño and sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 7 , 81105.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77 , 437471.

  • Kistler, R., and Coauthors, 2001: The NCEP–NCAR 50-Year Reanalysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82 , 247267.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kitoh, A., 2007: Variability of Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship in a 1000-year MRI-CGCM2.2 simulation. Nat. Hazards, 42 , 261272.

  • Krishna Kumar, K., B. Rajagopalan, and M. Cane, 1999: On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science, 284 , 21562159.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Krishna Kumar, K., B. Rajagopalan, M. Hoerling, G. Bates, and M. Cane, 2006: Unraveling the mystery of Indian monsoon failure during El Niño. Science, 314 , 115119.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lawrence, D. M., and P. J. Webster, 2001: Interannual variations of the intraseasonal oscillation in the South Asian summer monsoon region. J. Climate, 14 , 29102922.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lee, T., 2004: Decadal weakening of the shallow overturning circulation in the south Indian Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31 .L18305, doi:10.1029/2004GL020884.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lévy, M., D. Shankar, J-M. André, S. S. C. Shenoi, F. Durand, and C. de Boyer Montégut, 2007: Basin-wide seasonal evolution of the Indian Ocean’s phytoplankton blooms. J. Geophys. Res., 112 .C12014, doi:10.1029/2007JC004090.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Li, T., C-W. Tham, and C-P. Chang, 2001: A coupled air–sea–monsoon oscillator for the tropospheric biennial oscillation. J. Climate, 14 , 752764.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Loschnigg, J., and P. J. Webster, 2000: A coupled ocean–atmosphere system of SST modulation for the Indian Ocean. J. Climate, 13 , 33423360.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Loschnigg, J., G. A. Meehl, P. J. Webster, J. M. Arblaster, and G. P. Compo, 2003: The Asian monsoon, the tropospheric biennial oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole in the NCAR CSM. J. Climate, 16 , 16171642.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Luo, J-J., S. Masson, S. K. Behera, P. Delecluse, S. Gualdi, A. Navarra, and T. Yamagata, 2003: South Pacific origin of the decadal ENSO-like variation as simulated by a coupled GCM. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30 .2250, doi:10.1029/2003GL018649.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Luo, J-J., S. Masson, S. K. Behera, S. Shingu, and T. Yamagata, 2005a: Seasonal climate predictability in a coupled OAGCM using a different approach for ensemble forecasts. J. Climate, 18 , 44744497.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Luo, J-J., S. Masson, E. Roeckner, G. Madec, and T. Yamagata, 2005b: Reducing climatology bias in an ocean–atmosphere CGCM with improved coupling physics. J. Climate, 18 , 23442360.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Luo, J-J., S. Masson, S. K. Behera, and T. Yamagata, 2007: Experimental forecasts of Indian Ocean Dipole using a coupled OAGCM. J. Climate, 20 , 21782190.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Luo, J-J., S. Masson, S. K. Behera, and T. Yamagata, 2008: Extended ENSO predictions using a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere model. J. Climate, 21 , 8493.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Madden, R. A., and P. R. Julian, 1972: Description of global-scale circulation cells in the tropics with a 40-50 day period. J. Atmos. Sci., 29 , 11091123.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Madec, G., P. Delecluse, M. Imbard, and C. Levy, 1998: OPA 8.1 ocean general circulation model reference manual. Notes du pôle de modélisation de l’IPSL 11, 91 pp. [Available online at http://www.lodyc.jussieu.fr/NEMO/general/manual/Doc_OPA8.1.pdf.].

  • Masson, S., and Coauthors, 2005: Impact of barrier layer on winter-spring variability of the southeastern Arabian Sea. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32 .L07703, doi:10.1029/2004GL021980.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Masumoto, Y., and G. Meyers, 1998: Forced Rossby waves in the southern tropical Indian Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 103 , 2758927602.

  • Mathew, R., and Y. Tanimoto, 2007: Role of SST over the Indian Ocean in influencing the intraseasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 85 , 349358.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Matsuno, T., 1966: Quasi-geostrophic motions in the equatorial area. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 44 , 2543.

  • Meehl, G. A., and J. M. Arblaster, 2001: The tropospheric biennial oscillation and Indian monsoon rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28 , 17311734.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Meehl, G. A., and J. M. Arblaster, 2002a: The tropospheric biennial oscillation and Asian–Australian monsoon rainfall. J. Climate, 15 , 722744.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Meehl, G. A., and J. M. Arblaster, 2002b: Indian monsoon GCM sensitivity experiments testing tropospheric biennial oscillation transition conditions. J. Climate, 15 , 923944.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Meehl, G. A., J. M. Arblaster, and J. Loschnigg, 2003: Coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamical processes in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean regions and the TBO. J. Climate, 16 , 21382158.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Meehl, G. A., C. Covey, B. McAvaney, M. Latif, and R. J. Stouffer, 2005: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86 , 8993.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mooley, D. A., and B. Parthasarathy, 1984: Fluctuations in all-India summer monsoon rainfall during 1871-1978. Climatic Change, 6 , 287301.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mooley, D. A., and D. A. Paolino Jr., 1988: A predictive monsoon signal in the surface level thermal field over India. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116 , 339352.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mooley, D. A., B. Parthasarathy, and G. B. Pant, 1986: Relationships between Indian summer monsoon rainfall and location of the ridge at the 500-mb level along 75°E. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 25 , 633640.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Murtugudde, R., and A. J. Busalacchi, 1999: Interannual variability of the dynamics and thermodynamics of the tropical Indian Ocean. J. Climate, 12 , 23002326.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Murtugudde, R., J. P. McCreary, and A. J. Busalacchi, 2000: Oceanic processes associated with anomalous events in the Indian Ocean with relevance to 1997–1998. J. Geophys. Res., 105 , 32953306.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Murtugudde, R., R. Seager, and P. Thoppil, 2008: Arabian Sea response to monsoon variations. Paleooceanography, 22 .PA4217, doi:10.1029/2007PA001467.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ninomiya, K., and C. Kobayashi, 1999: Precipitation and moisture balance of the Asian summer monsoon in 1991 Part II: Moisture transport and moisture balance. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 77 , 7799.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nitta, T., and S. Yamada, 1989: Recent warming of tropical sea surface temperature and its relationship to the Northern Hemisphere circulation. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 67 , 375383.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ogasawara, N., A. Kitoh, T. Yasunari, and A. Noda, 1999: Tropospheric biennial oscillation of the ENSO-monsoon system in the MRI coupled GCM. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 77 , 12471270.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pant, G. B., and K. Rupa Kumar, 1997: Climates of South Asia. J. Wiley and Sons, 320 pp.

  • Parthasarathy, B., H. F. Diaz, and J. K. Eischeid, 1988: Prediction of all-India summer monsoon rainfall with regional and large-scale parameters. J. Geophys. Res., 93 , 53415350.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Parthasarathy, B., K. Rupa Kumar, and V. R. Deshpande, 1991a: Indian summer monsoon rainfall and 200 mb meridional wind index: Application for long-range prediction. Int. J. Climatol., 11 , 165176.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Parthasarathy, B., K. Rupa Kumar, and A. A. Munot, 1991b: Evidence of secular variations in Indian monsoon rainfall–circulation relationships. J. Climate, 4 , 927938.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Parthasarathy, B., K. Rupa Kumar, and A. A. Munot, 1992: Surface pressure and summer monsoon rainfall over India. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 9 , 359366.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Périgaud, C., and P. Delecluse, 1993: Interannual sea level variations in the tropical Indian Ocean from Geosat and shallow water simulations. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 23 , 19161934.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rao, K. G., and B. N. Goswami, 1988: Interannual variations of sea surface temperature over the Arabian Sea and the Indian monsoon: A new perspective. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116 , 558568.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rao, S. A., and S. K. Behera, 2005: Subsurface influence on SST in the tropical Indian Ocean: Structure and interannual variability. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 39 , 103135.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Reverdin, G., 1987: The upper equatorial Indian Ocean: The climatological seasonal cycle. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 17 , 903927.

  • Reverdin, G., D. Cadet, and D. Gutzler, 1986: Interannual displacements of convection and surface circulation over the equatorial Indian Ocean. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 112 , 4346.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Reynolds, R. W., N. A. Rayner, T. M. Smith, D. C. Stokes, and W. Wang, 2002: An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J. Climate, 15 , 16091625.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Roeckner, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie Rep. 218, 90 pp.

  • Saji, N. H., B. N. Goswami, P. N. Vinayachandran, and T. Yamagata, 1999: A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature, 401 , 360363.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schoenefeldt, R., and F. A. Schott, 2006: Decadal variability of the Indian Ocean cross-equatorial exchange in SODA. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33 .L08602, doi:10.1029/2006GL025891.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schott, F. A., and J. P. McCreary Jr., 2001: The monsoon circulation of the Indian Ocean. Prog. Oceanogr., 51 , 1123.

  • Schott, F. A., M. Dengler, and R. Schoenefeldt, 2002: The shallow overturning circulation of the Indian Ocean. Prog. Oceanogr., 53 , 57103.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schott, F. A., S-P. Xie, and J. P. McCreary Jr., 2008: Indian Ocean circulation and climate variability. Rev. Geophys., in press.

  • Shukla, J., 1975: Effect of Arabian sea-surface temperature anomaly on Indian summer monsoon: A numerical experiment with the GFDL model. J. Atmos. Sci., 32 , 503511.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shukla, J., 1987: Interannual variability of monsoons. Monsoons, J. S. Fein and P. L. Stephens, Eds., J. Wiley and Sons, 339–463.

  • Slingo, J., H. Spencer, B. Hoskins, P. Berrisford, and E. Black, 2004: The meteorology of the western Indian Ocean and the influence of the east African highlands. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, A363 , 2542.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Smith, T. M., and R. W. Reynolds, 2004: Improved extended reconstruction of SST, 1854–1997. J. Climate, 17 , 24662477.

  • Terray, P., 1995: Space–time structure of monsoon interannual variability. J. Climate, 8 , 25952619.

  • Terray, P., and S. Dominiak, 2005: Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and El Niño–Southern Oscillation: A new perspective. J. Climate, 18 , 13511368.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Terray, P., F. Chauvin, and H. Douville, 2007: Impact of southeast Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies on monsoon-ENSO-dipole variability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Climate Dyn., 28 , 553580.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Valcke, S., L. Terray, and A. Piacentini, 2000: The OASIS coupler user guide version 2.4. CERFACE Tech. Rep. TR/CGMC/ 00-10, 85 pp.

  • Vecchi, G. A., and D. E. Harrison, 2004: Interannual Indian rainfall variability and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies. Earth’s Climate: The Ocean–Atmosphere Interaction, Geophys. Monogr., Vol. 147, Amer. Geophys. Union, 247–259.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Vialard, J., and Coauthors, 2008: Cirene: Air–sea interactions in the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge region. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Walker, G. T., 1924: Correlations in seasonal variations of weather, IX. A further study of world weather, World Weather II. Mem. India Meteor. Dep., 24 , 275332.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Washington, W. M., R. M. Chervin, and G. V. Rao, 1977: Effects of a variety of Indian Ocean surface temperature anomaly patterns on the summer monsoon circulation: Experiments with the NCAR general circulation model. Pure Appl. Geophys., 115 , 13351356.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Webster, P. J., V. Magaña, T. Palmer, J. Shukla, R. Tomas, M. Yanai, and T. Yasunari, 1998: Monsoon: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J. Geophys. Res., 103 , 1445114510.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Webster, P. J., A. M. Moore, J. P. Loschnigg, and R. R. Leben, 1999: Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997-98. Nature, 401 , 356360.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wiggert, J. D., R. G. Murtugudde, and C. R. McClain, 2002: Processes controlling interannual variations in wintertime, northeast monsoon: Primary productivity in the central Arabian Sea. Deep-Sea Res. II, 49 , 23192343.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, R., and B. P. Kirtman, 2005: Roles of Indian and Pacific Ocean air–sea coupling in tropical atmospheric variability. Climate Dyn., 25 , 155170.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Xie, P., and P. A. Arkin, 1996: Analyses of global monthly precipitation using gauge observations, satellite estimates and numerical model predictions. J. Climate, 9 , 840858.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Xie, S-P., H. Annamalai, F. Schott, and J. P. McCreary Jr., 2002: Origin and predictability of south Indian Ocean climate variability. J. Climate, 15 , 864874.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Xie, S-P., H. Xu, N. H. Saji, Y. Wang, and W. T. Liu, 2006: Role of narrow mountains in large-scale organization of Asian monsoon convection. J. Climate, 19 , 34203429.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yamagata, T., S. K. Behera, J-J. Luo, S. Masson, M. R. Jury, and S. A. Rao, 2004: Coupled ocean–atmosphere variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Earth’s Climate: The Ocean–Atmosphere Interaction, Geophys. Monogr., Vol. 147, Amer. Geophys. Union, 189–212.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yang, J., Q. Liu, S-P. Xie, Z. Liu, and L. Wu, 2007: Impact of the Indian Ocean SST basin mode on the Asian summer monson. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34 .L02708, doi:10.1029/2006GL028571.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yasunari, T., 1979: Cloudiness fluctuations associated with the northern hemisphere summer monsoon. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 57 , 227242.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yokoi, T., T. Tozuka, and T. Yamagata, 2008: Seasonal variation of the Seychelles dome. J. Climate, 21 , 37403754.

  • Yu, J-Y., and K. M. Lau, 2005: Contrasting Indian Ocean SST variability with and without ENSO influence: A coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM study. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 90 , 179191.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yu, J-Y., S. P. Weng, and J. D. Farrara, 2003: Ocean roles in the TBO transitions of the Indian–Australian monsoon system. J. Climate, 16 , 30723080.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 2470 866 48
PDF Downloads 1802 353 37