• Achard, F., , H. D. Eva, , H-J. Stibig, , P. Mayaux, , J. Gallego, , T. Richards, , and J-P. Malingreau, 2002: Determination of deforestation rates of the world’s humid tropical forests. Science, 297 , 9991002.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Alvalá, R. C. S., and Coauthors, 2002: Intradiurnal and seasonal variability of soil temperature, heat flux, soil moisture content, and thermal properties under forest and pasture in Rondônia. J. Geophys. Res., 107 .8043, doi:10.1029/2001JD000599.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Avissar, R., , and R. A. Pielke, 1989: A parameterization of heterogeneous land surfaces for atmospheric numerical models and its impact on regional meteorology. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117 , 21132136.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Avissar, R., , and Y. Liu, 1996: A three-dimensional numerical study of shallow convective clouds and precipitation induced by land-surface forcing. J. Geophys. Res., 101 , 74997518.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Avissar, R., , and C. A. Nobre, 2002: Preface to special issue on the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA). J. Geophys. Res., 107 .8034, doi:10.1029/2002JD002507.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Avissar, R., , and D. Werth, 2005: Global hydroclimatological teleconnections resulting from tropical deforestation. J. Hydrometeor., 6 , 134145.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Avissar, R., , E. W. Eloranta, , K. Gurer, , and G. J. Tripoli, 1998: An evaluation of the large-eddy simulation option of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System in simulating a convective boundary layer: A FIFE case study. J. Atmos. Sci., 55 , 11091130.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Avissar, R., , P. L. Silva Dias, , M. A. F. Silva Dias, , and C. A. Nobre, 2002: The Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA): Insights and future research needs. J. Geophys. Res., 107 .8086, doi:10.1029/2002JD002704.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Baidya Roy, S., , and R. Avissar, 2002: Impact of land use/land cover change on regional hydrometeorology in Amazonia. J. Geophys. Res., 107 .8037, doi:10.1029/2000JD000266.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chagnon, F. J. F., , and R. L. Bras, 2005: Contemporary climate change in the Amazon. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32 .L13703, doi:10.1029/2005GL022722.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Charney, J., , W. J. Quirk, , S-H. Chow, , and J. Kornfield, 1977: A comparative study of the effects of albedo change on drought in semi-arid regions. J. Atmos. Sci., 34 , 13661385.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chen, C., , and W. R. Cotton, 1987: The physics of the marine stratocumulus-capped mixed layer. J. Atmos. Sci., 44 , 29512977.

  • Chen, F., , and R. Avissar, 1994: The impact of land-surface wetness heterogeneity on mesoscale heat fluxes. J. Appl. Meteor., 33 , 13231340.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cutrim, E., , D. W. Martin, , and R. Rabin, 1995: Enhancement of cumulus clouds over deforested lands in Amazonia. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76 , 18011805.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dawson, T. E., 1993: Hydraulic lift and water use by plants: Implications for water balance, performance and plant-plant interactions. Oecologia, 95 , 565574.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dickinson, R. E., , and A. Henderson-Sellers, 1988: Modelling tropical deforestation: A study of GCM land-surface parameterizations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 114 , 439462.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dickinson, R. E., , and P. Kenneday, 1992: Impacts on regional climate of Amazon deforestation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 19 , 19471950.

  • Durieux, L., , L. A. T. Machado, , and H. Laurent, 2003: The impact of deforestation on cloud cover over the Amazon arc of deforestation. Remote Sens. Environ., 86 , 132140.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Emanuel, K. A., 1994: Atmospheric Convection. Oxford University Press, 580 pp.

  • Gandu, A. W., , J. C. P. Cohen, , and J. R. S. de Souza, 2004: Simulation of deforestation in eastern Amazonia using a high-resolution model. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 78 , 123135.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Garreaud, R. D., , and J. M. Wallace, 1998: Summertime incursions of midlatitude air into subtropical and tropical South America. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126 , 27132733.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Garstang, M., , and D. R. Fitzjarrald, 1999: Observations of Surface to Atmosphere Interactions in the Tropics. Oxford University Press, 405 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gash, J. H. C., , and C. A. Nobre, 1997: Climatic effects of Amazonian deforestation: Some results from ABRACOS. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78 , 823830.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Greco, S., and Coauthors, 1990: Rainfall and surface kinematic conditions over central Amazonia during ABLE 2B. J. Geophys. Res., 95 , 1700117014.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hasler, N., , R. Avissar, , and G. E. Liston, 2005: Issues in simulating the annual precipitation of a semiarid region in central Spain. J. Hydrometeor., 6 , 409422.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Henderson-Sellers, A., , and V. Gornitz, 1984: Possible climatic impacts of land cover transformations, with particular emphasis on tropical deforestation. Climatic Change, 6 , 231257.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Henderson-Sellers, A., , R. E. Dickinson, , T. B. Durbidge, , P. J. Kennedy, , K. McGuffie, , and A. J. Pitman, 1993: Tropical deforestation: Modeling local- to regional-scale climate change. J. Geophys. Res., 98 , 72897315.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Huffman, G. J., , R. F. Adler, , B. Rudolf, , U. Schneider, , and P. R. Keehn, 1995: Global precipitation estimates based on a technique for combining satellite-based estimates, rain gauge analysis, and NWP model precipitation information. J. Climate, 8 , 12841295.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kain, J. S., 2004: The Kain–Fritsch convective parameterization: An update. J. Appl. Meteor., 43 , 170181.

  • Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77 , 437471.

  • Laurance, W. F., and Coauthors, 2004: Pervasive alteration of tree communities in undisturbed Amazonian forests. Nature, 428 , 171175.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Laurent, H., , L. A. T. Machado, , C. A. Morales, , and L. Durieux, 2002: Characteristics of the Amazonian mesoscale convective systems observed from satellite and radar during the WETAMC/LBA experiment. J. Geophys. Res., 107 .8054, doi:10.1029/2001JD000337.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lean, J., , and P. R. Rowntree, 1993: A GCM simulation of the impact of Amazonian deforestation on climate using an improved canopy representation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119 , 509530.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liston, G. E., , and R. A. Pielke, 2001: A climate version of the regional atmospheric modeling system. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 68 , 155173.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liu, Y., , and R. Avissar, 1996: Sensitivity of shallow convective precipitation induced by land surface heterogeneities to dynamical and cloud microphysical parameters. J. Geophys. Res., 101 , 74777498.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Matthews, E., 1983: Global vegetation and land use: New high-resolution data bases for climate studies. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 22 , 474487.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mellor, G. L., , and T. Yamada, 1974: A hierarchy of turbulence closure models for planetary boundary layers. J. Atmos. Sci., 31 , 17911806.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Meyers, M. P., , R. L. Walko, , J. Y. Harrington, , and W. R. Cotton, 1997: New RAMS cloud microphysics parameterization. Part II: The two-moment scheme. Atmos. Res., 45 , 339.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Molinari, J., , and M. Dudek, 1992: Parameterization of convective precipitation in mesoscale numerical models: A critical review. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120 , 326344.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Moorcroft, P. R., , G. C. Hurtt, , and S. W. Pacala, 2001: A method for scaling vegetation dynamics: The ecosystem demography model (ED). Ecol. Monogr., 71 , 557585.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nepstad, D. C., and Coauthors, 1994: The role of deep roots in the hydrological and carbon cycles of Amazonian forests and pastures. Nature, 372 , 666669.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • New, M., , M. Hulme, , and P. Jones, 1999: Representing twentieth-century space–time climate variability. Part I: Development of a 1961–90 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. J. Climate, 12 , 829856.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nobre, C. A., , P. J. Sellers, , and J. Shukla, 1991: Amazonian deforestation and regional climate change. J. Climate, 4 , 957988.

  • Nobre, P., , and J. Shukla, 1996: Variations of sea surface temperature, wind stress, and rainfall over the tropical Atlantic and South America. J. Climate, 9 , 24642479.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Oyama, M. D., , and C. A. Nobre, 2003: A new climate-vegetation equilibrium state for Tropical South America. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30 .2199, doi:10.1029/2003GL018600.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pielke, R. E., and Coauthors, 1992: A comprehensive meteorological modeling system—RAMS. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 49 , 6991.

  • Ramos da Silva, R., , and R. Avissar, 2006: The hydrometeorology of a deforested region of the Amazon basin. J. Hydrometeor., 7 , 10281042.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Reynolds, R. W., , N. A. Rayner, , T. M. Smith, , D. C. Stokes, , and W. Q. Wang, 2002: An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J. Climate, 15 , 16091625.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Richey, J. E., , C. Nobre, , and C. Deser, 1989: Amazon River discharge and climate variability: 1903 to 1985. Science, 246 , 101103.

  • Richey, J. E., , R. L. Victoria, , E. Salati, , and B. R. Forsberg, 1991: The biogeochemistry of a major river system: The Amazon case study. Biogeochemistry of Major World Rivers, E. T. Degens, S. Kempe, and J. E. Richey, Eds., John Wiley and Sons, 57–74.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rickenbach, T. M., 2004: Nocturnal cloud systems and the diurnal variation of clouds and rainfall in southwestern Amazonia. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131 , 12011219.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rosenzweig, C., , and F. Abramopoulos, 1997: Land-surface model development for the GISS GCM. J. Climate, 10 , 20402054.

  • Shukla, J., , C. Nobre, , and P. Sellers, 1990: Amazon deforestation and climate change. Science, 247 , 13221325.

  • Silva Dias, M. A., , and P. Regnier, 1996: Simulation of mesoscale circulations in a deforested area of Rondonia in the dry season. Amazonian Deforestation and Climate, J. H. C. Gash et al., Eds., John Wiley and Sons, 531–547.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Silva Dias, M. A., and Coauthors, 2002: A case study of convective organization into precipitating lines in the Southwest Amazon during the WETAMC and TRMM-LBA. J. Geophys. Res., 107 .8078, doi:10.129/2001JD000375.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Soares-Filho, B., , A. Alencar, , D. Nepstad, , G. Cerqueira, , M. del Carmen Vera Diaz, , S. Rivero, , L. Solórzano, , and E. Voll, 2004: Simulating the response of land-cover changes to road paving and governance along a major Amazon highway: The Santarém-Cuiabá corridor. Global Change Biol., 10 , 745764.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Souza, E. P., , N. O. Rennó, , and M. A. F. Silva Dias, 2000: Convective circulations induced by surface heterogeneities. J. Atmos. Sci., 57 , 29152922.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Takle, E. S., and Coauthors, 1999: Project to Intercompare Regional Climate Simulations (PIRCS): Description and initial results. J. Geophys. Res., 104 , 1944319462.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Voldoire, A., , and E. J. F. Royer, 2004: Tropical deforestation and climate variability. Climate Dyn., 22 , 857874.

  • Vital, H., , and K. Stattegger, 2000: Sediment dynamics in the lowermost Amazon. J. Coastal Res., 16 , 316328.

  • Walko, R. L., , W. R. Cotton, , M. P. Meyers, , and J. Y. Harrington, 1995: New RAMS cloud microphysics parameterization. Part I: The single-moment scheme. Atmos. Res., 38 , 2962.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Walko, R. L., and Coauthors, 2000: Coupled atmosphere–biophysics–hydrology models for environmental modeling. J. Appl. Meteor., 39 , 931944.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, J. F., , R. L. Bras, , and E. A. B. Eltahir, 2000: The impact of observed deforestation on the mesoscale distribution of rainfall and clouds in Amazonia. J. Hydrometeor., 1 , 267286.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Werth, D., , and R. Avissar, 2002: The local and global effects of Amazon deforestation. J. Geophys. Res., 107 .8087, doi:10.1029/2001JD000717.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Werth, D., , and R. Avissar, 2005a: The local and global effects of Southeast Asian deforestation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32 .L20702, doi:10.1029/2005GL022970.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Werth, D., , and R. Avissar, 2005b: The local and global effects of African deforestation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32 .L12704, doi:10.1029/2005GL022969.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zheng, X. Y., , and E. A. B. Eltahir, 1997: The response to deforestation and desertification in a model of West African monsoons. Geophys. Res. Lett., 24 , 155158.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zheng, X. Y., , and E. A. B. Eltahir, 1998: The role of vegetation in the dynamics of West African monsoons. J. Climate, 11 , 20782096.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 110 110 36
PDF Downloads 59 59 22

Regional Impacts of Future Land-Cover Changes on the Amazon Basin Wet-Season Climate

View More View Less
  • 1 Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
© Get Permissions
Restricted access

Abstract

State-of-the-art socioeconomic scenarios of land-cover change in the Amazon basin for the years 2030 and 2050 are used together with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to simulate the hydrometeorological changes caused by deforestation in that region under diverse climatological conditions that include both El Niño and La Niña events. The basin-averaged rainfall progressively decreases with the increase of deforestation from 2000 to 2030, 2050, and so on, to total deforestation by the end of the twenty-first century. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of rainfall is significantly affected by both the land-cover type and topography. While the massively deforested region experiences an important decrease of precipitation, the areas at the edge of that region and at elevated regions receive more rainfall. Propagating squall lines over the massively deforested region dissipate before reaching the western part of the basin, causing a significant decrease of rainfall that could result in a catastrophic collapse of the ecosystem in that region. The basin experiences much stronger precipitation changes during El Niño events as deforestation increases. During these periods, deforestation in the western part of the basin induces a very significant decrease of precipitation. During wet years, however, deforestation has a minor overall impact on the basin climatology.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Roni Avissar, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, P.O. Box 90287, Durham, NC 27708-0287. Email: avissar@duke.edu

Abstract

State-of-the-art socioeconomic scenarios of land-cover change in the Amazon basin for the years 2030 and 2050 are used together with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to simulate the hydrometeorological changes caused by deforestation in that region under diverse climatological conditions that include both El Niño and La Niña events. The basin-averaged rainfall progressively decreases with the increase of deforestation from 2000 to 2030, 2050, and so on, to total deforestation by the end of the twenty-first century. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of rainfall is significantly affected by both the land-cover type and topography. While the massively deforested region experiences an important decrease of precipitation, the areas at the edge of that region and at elevated regions receive more rainfall. Propagating squall lines over the massively deforested region dissipate before reaching the western part of the basin, causing a significant decrease of rainfall that could result in a catastrophic collapse of the ecosystem in that region. The basin experiences much stronger precipitation changes during El Niño events as deforestation increases. During these periods, deforestation in the western part of the basin induces a very significant decrease of precipitation. During wet years, however, deforestation has a minor overall impact on the basin climatology.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Roni Avissar, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, P.O. Box 90287, Durham, NC 27708-0287. Email: avissar@duke.edu

Save