The Shape of Things to Come: Why Is Climate Change So Predictable?

Marcia B. Baker Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

Search for other papers by Marcia B. Baker in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
and
Gerard H. Roe Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

Search for other papers by Gerard H. Roe in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

We are aware of a technical issue preventing figures and tables from showing in some newly published articles in the full-text HTML view.
While we are resolving the problem, please use the online PDF version of these articles to view figures and tables.

Abstract

The framework of feedback analysis is used to explore the controls on the shape of the probability distribution of global mean surface temperature response to climate forcing. It is shown that ocean heat uptake, which delays and damps the temperature rise, can be represented as a transient negative feedback. This transient negative feedback causes the transient climate change to have a narrower probability distribution than that of the equilibrium climate response (the climate sensitivity). In this sense, climate change is much more predictable than climate sensitivity. The width of the distribution grows gradually over time, a consequence of which is that the larger the climate change being contemplated, the greater the uncertainty is about when that change will be realized. Another consequence of this slow growth is that further efforts to constrain climate sensitivity will be of very limited value for climate projections on societally relevant time scales. Finally, it is demonstrated that the effect on climate predictability of reducing uncertainty in the atmospheric feedbacks is greater than the effect of reducing uncertainty in ocean feedbacks by the same proportion. However, at least at the global scale, the total impact of uncertainty in climate feedbacks is dwarfed by the impact of uncertainty in climate forcing, which in turn is contingent on choices made about future anthropogenic emissions.

Corresponding author address: Marcia B. Baker, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, 070 Johnson Hall, Seattle, WA 98195. Email: mbbaker@u.washington.edu

Abstract

The framework of feedback analysis is used to explore the controls on the shape of the probability distribution of global mean surface temperature response to climate forcing. It is shown that ocean heat uptake, which delays and damps the temperature rise, can be represented as a transient negative feedback. This transient negative feedback causes the transient climate change to have a narrower probability distribution than that of the equilibrium climate response (the climate sensitivity). In this sense, climate change is much more predictable than climate sensitivity. The width of the distribution grows gradually over time, a consequence of which is that the larger the climate change being contemplated, the greater the uncertainty is about when that change will be realized. Another consequence of this slow growth is that further efforts to constrain climate sensitivity will be of very limited value for climate projections on societally relevant time scales. Finally, it is demonstrated that the effect on climate predictability of reducing uncertainty in the atmospheric feedbacks is greater than the effect of reducing uncertainty in ocean feedbacks by the same proportion. However, at least at the global scale, the total impact of uncertainty in climate feedbacks is dwarfed by the impact of uncertainty in climate forcing, which in turn is contingent on choices made about future anthropogenic emissions.

Corresponding author address: Marcia B. Baker, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, 070 Johnson Hall, Seattle, WA 98195. Email: mbbaker@u.washington.edu

Save
  • Allen, M. R., and D. J. Frame, 2007: Call off the quest. Science, 318 , 582–583.

  • Arhennius, S., 1896: On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground. Philos. Mag., 41 , 237–276.

  • Boer, G. J., and B. Yu, 2003: Climate sensitivity and climate state. Climate Dyn., 21 , 167–176.

  • Cess, R. D., 1975: Global climate change: An investigation of atmospheric feedback mechanisms. Tellus, 27 , 193–198.

  • Colman, R., 2003: A comparison of climate feedbacks in general circulation models. Climate Dyn., 20 , 865–873.

  • Colman, R., S. Power, and B. McAvaney, 1997: Non-linear climate feedback analysis in an atmospheric GCM. Climate Dyn., 13 , 717–731.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cox, P., and D. Stephenson, 2007: A changing climate for prediction. Science, 317 , 207–208.

  • Forest, C. E., P. H. Stone, A. P. Sokolov, M. R. Allen, and M. D. Webster, 2002: Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations. Science, 295 , 113–117.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Forest, C. E., P. H. Stone, and A. P. Sokolov, 2006: Estimated PDFs of climate system properties including natural and anthropogenic forcings. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33 , L01705. doi:10.1029/2005GL023977.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Frame, D. J., B. B. B. Booth, J. A. Kettleborough, D. A. Stainforth, J. M. Gregory, M. Collins, and M. R. Allen, 2005: Constraining climate forecasts: The role of prior assumptions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32 , L09702. doi:10.1029/2004GL022241.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Frame, D. J., D. A. Stone, P. A. Stott, and M. R. Allen, 2006: Alternatives to stabilization scenarios. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33 , L14707. doi:10.1029/2006GL025801.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gregory, J. M., and P. M. Forster, 2008: Transient climate response estimated from radiative forcing and observed temperature change. J. Geophys. Res., 113 , D23105. doi:10.1029/2008JD010405.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hansen, J., A. Lacis, D. Rind, G. Russell, P. Stone, I. Fung, R. Ruedy, and J. Lerner, 1984: Climate sensitivity: Analysis of feedback mechanisms. Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity, Geophys. Monogr., Vol. 29, Amer. Geophys. Union, 130–163.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hansen, J., G. Russell, A. Lacis, I. Fung, D. Rind, and P. Stone, 1985: Climate response times: Dependence on climate sensitivity and ocean mixing. Science, 229 , 857–859.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hoffert, M. I., A. J. Callegari, and C-T. Hsieh, 1980: The role of deep sea heat storage in the secular response to climatic forcing. J. Geophys. Res., 85 , 6667–6679.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Knutti, R., T. F. Stocker, F. Joos, and G-K. Plattner, 2002: Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles. Nature, 416 , 719–723.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Knutti, R., T. F. Stocker, F. Joos, and G-K. Plattner, 2003: Probabilistic climate change projections using neural networks. Climate Dyn., 21 , 257–272.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Knutti, R., F. Joos, S. A. Müller, G-K. Plattner, and T. F. Stocker, 2005: Probabilistic climate change projections for CO2 stabilization profiles. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32 , L20707. doi:10.1029/2005GL023294.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lindzen, R. S., and C. Giannitsis, 1998: On the climatic implications of volcanic cooling. J. Geophys. Res., 103 , 5929–5941.

  • Manabe, S., and R. J. Stouffer, 1996: Low-frequency variability of surface air temperature in a 1000-year integration of a coupled atmosphere–ocean–land surface model. J. Climate, 9 , 376–393.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Maxwell, J. C., 1867: On governors. Proc. Roy. Soc., 16 , 270–283.

  • North, G. R., and J. A. Coakley Jr., 1979: Differences between seasonal and mean annual energy balance model calculations of climate and climate sensitivity. J. Atmos. Sci., 36 , 1189–1204.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ramaswamy, V., and Coauthors, 2001: Radiative forcing of climate change. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, J. T. Houghton et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 349–416.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Raper, S. C. B., J. M. Gregory, and T. J. Osborn, 2001: Use of an upwelling-diffusion energy balance climate model to simulate and diagnose A/OGCM results. Climate Dyn., 17 , 601–613.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Roe, G. H., 2009: Feedbacks, timescales, and seeing red. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 37 , 93–115.

  • Roe, G. H., and M. B. Baker, 2007: Why is climate sensitivity so unpredictable? Science, 318 , 629–632.

  • Schlesinger, M. E., 1985: Feedback analysis of results from energy balance and radiative-convective models. The Potential Climatic Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide, DOE/ER-0237, M. C. MacCracken and F. M. Luther, Eds., U.S. Department of Energy, 280–319.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Senior, C. A., and J. F. B. Mitchell, 2000: The time-dependence of climate sensitivity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27 , 2685–2688.

  • Soden, B. J., and I. M. Held, 2006: An assessment of climate feedbacks in coupled ocean–atmosphere models. J. Climate, 19 , 3354–3360.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, M. Marquis, K. Avery, M. M. B. Tignor, H. L. Miller Jr., and Z. Chen, Eds. 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, 996 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Torn, M. S., and J. Harte, 2006: Missing feedbacks, asymmetric uncertainties, and the underestimation of future warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33 , L10703. doi:10.1029/2005GL025540.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Watterson, I. G., 2000: Interpretation of simulated global warming using a simple model. J. Climate, 13 , 202–215.

  • Weitzman, M. L., 2009: On modeling and interpreting the economics of catastrophic climate change. Rev. Econ. Stat., 91 , 1–19.

  • Wigley, T. M. L., and M. E. Schlesinger, 1985: Analytical solution for the effect of increasing CO2 on global mean temperature. Nature, 315 , 649–652.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wigley, T. M. L., and S. C. B. Raper, 1990: On the natural variability of the climate system and detection of the greenhouse effect. Nature, 344 , 324–327.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wigley, T. M. L., and S. C. B. Raper, 2001: Interpretation of high projections for global-mean warming. Science, 293 , 451–454.

  • Wood, R. A., M. Vellinga, and R. Thorpe, 2003: Global warming and thermohaline circulation stability. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, 361A , 1961–1975.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 1266 477 167
PDF Downloads 648 102 13