Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Changing Frequency and Intensity of Rainfall Extremes over India from 1951 to 2003

Chandra Kiran B. Krishnamurthy School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, New York

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Upmanu Lall Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, New York

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Hyun-Han Kwon Water Resources Division, Korea Institute of Construction Technology, Gyeonggi-do, South Korea

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Print Publication:
15 Sep 2009
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2896.1
Page(s):
4737–4746
Restricted access

Abstract

Using a 1951–2003 gridded daily rainfall dataset for India, the authors assess trends in the intensity and frequency of exceedance of thresholds derived from the 90th and the 99th percentile of daily rainfall. A nonparametric method is used to test for monotonic trends at each location. A field significance test is also applied at the national level to assess whether the individual trends identified could occur by chance in an analysis of the large number of time series analyzed. Statistically significant increasing trends in extremes of rainfall are identified over many parts of India, consistent with the indications from climate change models and the hypothesis that the hydrological cycle will intensify as the planet warms. Specifically, for the exceedance of the 99th percentile of daily rainfall, all locations where a significant increasing trend in frequency of exceedance is identified also exhibit a significant trend in rainfall intensity. However, extreme precipitation frequency over many parts of India also appears to exhibit a decreasing trend, especially for the exceedance of the 90th percentile of daily rainfall. Predominantly increasing trends in the intensity of extreme rainfall are observed for both exceedance thresholds.

Corresponding author address: Chandra Kiran B. Krishnamurthy, Columbia University, 918 S.W. Mudd Building, Mail Code 4711, 500 W. 120th St., New York, NY 10027. Email: cb2322@columbia.edu

Abstract

Using a 1951–2003 gridded daily rainfall dataset for India, the authors assess trends in the intensity and frequency of exceedance of thresholds derived from the 90th and the 99th percentile of daily rainfall. A nonparametric method is used to test for monotonic trends at each location. A field significance test is also applied at the national level to assess whether the individual trends identified could occur by chance in an analysis of the large number of time series analyzed. Statistically significant increasing trends in extremes of rainfall are identified over many parts of India, consistent with the indications from climate change models and the hypothesis that the hydrological cycle will intensify as the planet warms. Specifically, for the exceedance of the 99th percentile of daily rainfall, all locations where a significant increasing trend in frequency of exceedance is identified also exhibit a significant trend in rainfall intensity. However, extreme precipitation frequency over many parts of India also appears to exhibit a decreasing trend, especially for the exceedance of the 90th percentile of daily rainfall. Predominantly increasing trends in the intensity of extreme rainfall are observed for both exceedance thresholds.

Corresponding author address: Chandra Kiran B. Krishnamurthy, Columbia University, 918 S.W. Mudd Building, Mail Code 4711, 500 W. 120th St., New York, NY 10027. Email: cb2322@columbia.edu

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