Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

An Analysis of ENSO Prediction Skill in the CFS Retrospective Forecasts

Renguang Wu Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, Maryland

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Ben P. Kirtman Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, and Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, Maryland

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Huug van den Dool Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Camp Springs, Maryland

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Print Publication:
01 Apr 2009
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2565.1
Page(s):
1801–1818
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Abstract

The present study documents the so-called spring prediction and persistence barriers in association with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) retrospective forecasts. It is found that the spring prediction and persistence barriers in the eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) are preceded by a boreal winter barrier in the western equatorial Pacific zonal wind stress. The time of the persistence barrier is closely related to the time of the ENSO phase transition, but may differ from the time of the lowest variance. The seasonal change of the signal-to-noise ratio cannot explain the persistence barrier. While the noise may lead to a drop of skill around boreal spring in the western equatorial Pacific zonal wind stress, its impacts on the skill of eastern equatorial Pacific SST is small. The equatorial Pacific zonal winds display an excessive response to ENSO-related SST anomalies, which leads to a longer persistence in the equatorial Pacific thermocline depth anomalies and a delayed transition of the eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomalies. This provides an interpretation for the prediction skill drop in boreal spring in the eastern equatorial Pacific SST. The results suggest that improving the atmospheric model wind response to SST anomalies may reduce the spring prediction barrier.

Corresponding author address: Renguang Wu, COLA, IGES, 4041 Powder Mill Rd., Suite 302, Calverton, MD 20705. Email: renguang@cola.iges.org

Abstract

The present study documents the so-called spring prediction and persistence barriers in association with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) retrospective forecasts. It is found that the spring prediction and persistence barriers in the eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) are preceded by a boreal winter barrier in the western equatorial Pacific zonal wind stress. The time of the persistence barrier is closely related to the time of the ENSO phase transition, but may differ from the time of the lowest variance. The seasonal change of the signal-to-noise ratio cannot explain the persistence barrier. While the noise may lead to a drop of skill around boreal spring in the western equatorial Pacific zonal wind stress, its impacts on the skill of eastern equatorial Pacific SST is small. The equatorial Pacific zonal winds display an excessive response to ENSO-related SST anomalies, which leads to a longer persistence in the equatorial Pacific thermocline depth anomalies and a delayed transition of the eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomalies. This provides an interpretation for the prediction skill drop in boreal spring in the eastern equatorial Pacific SST. The results suggest that improving the atmospheric model wind response to SST anomalies may reduce the spring prediction barrier.

Corresponding author address: Renguang Wu, COLA, IGES, 4041 Powder Mill Rd., Suite 302, Calverton, MD 20705. Email: renguang@cola.iges.org

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