Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Regionalization of Climate Change Simulations over the Eastern Mediterranean

Bariş Önol Aeronautics and Astronautics Faculty, Meteorological Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey

Search for other papers by Bariş Önol in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
and
Fredrick H. M. Semazzi Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina

Search for other papers by Fredrick H. M. Semazzi in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
15 Apr 2009
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI1807.1
Page(s):
1944–1961
Restricted access

Abstract

In this study, the potential role of global warming in modulating the future climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region has been investigated. The primary vehicle of this investigation is the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (ICTP-RegCM3), which was used to downscale the present and future climate scenario simulations generated by the NASA’s finite-volume GCM (fvGCM). The present-day (1961–90; RF) simulations and the future climate change projections (2071–2100; A2) are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. During the Northern Hemispheric winter season, the general increase in precipitation over the northern sector of the EM region is present both in the fvGCM and RegCM3 model simulations. The regional model simulations reveal a significant increase (10%–50%) in winter precipitation over the Carpathian Mountains and along the east coast of the Black Sea, over the Kackar Mountains, and over the Caucasus Mountains. The large decrease in precipitation over the southeastern Turkey region that recharges the Euphrates and Tigris River basins could become a major source of concern for the countries downstream of this region. The model results also indicate that the autumn rains, which are primarily confined over Turkey for the current climate, will expand into Syria and Iraq in the future, which is consistent with the corresponding changes in the circulation pattern. The climate change over EM tends to manifest itself in terms of the modulation of North Atlantic Oscillation. During summer, temperature increase is as large as 7°C over the Balkan countries while changes for the rest of the region are in the range of 3°–4°C. Overall the temperature increase in summer is much greater than the corresponding changes during winter. Presentation of the climate change projections in terms of individual country averages is highly advantageous for the practical interpretation of the results. The consistence of the country averages for the RF RegCM3 projections with the corresponding averaged station data is compelling evidence of the added value of regional climate model downscaling.

Corresponding author address: Bariş Önol, ITU Aeronautics and Astronautics Faculty, Meteorological Engineering, Maslak, 34469 Istanbul, Turkey. Email: onolba@itu.edu.tr

Abstract

In this study, the potential role of global warming in modulating the future climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region has been investigated. The primary vehicle of this investigation is the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (ICTP-RegCM3), which was used to downscale the present and future climate scenario simulations generated by the NASA’s finite-volume GCM (fvGCM). The present-day (1961–90; RF) simulations and the future climate change projections (2071–2100; A2) are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. During the Northern Hemispheric winter season, the general increase in precipitation over the northern sector of the EM region is present both in the fvGCM and RegCM3 model simulations. The regional model simulations reveal a significant increase (10%–50%) in winter precipitation over the Carpathian Mountains and along the east coast of the Black Sea, over the Kackar Mountains, and over the Caucasus Mountains. The large decrease in precipitation over the southeastern Turkey region that recharges the Euphrates and Tigris River basins could become a major source of concern for the countries downstream of this region. The model results also indicate that the autumn rains, which are primarily confined over Turkey for the current climate, will expand into Syria and Iraq in the future, which is consistent with the corresponding changes in the circulation pattern. The climate change over EM tends to manifest itself in terms of the modulation of North Atlantic Oscillation. During summer, temperature increase is as large as 7°C over the Balkan countries while changes for the rest of the region are in the range of 3°–4°C. Overall the temperature increase in summer is much greater than the corresponding changes during winter. Presentation of the climate change projections in terms of individual country averages is highly advantageous for the practical interpretation of the results. The consistence of the country averages for the RF RegCM3 projections with the corresponding averaged station data is compelling evidence of the added value of regional climate model downscaling.

Corresponding author address: Bariş Önol, ITU Aeronautics and Astronautics Faculty, Meteorological Engineering, Maslak, 34469 Istanbul, Turkey. Email: onolba@itu.edu.tr

Save
Cover Journal of Climate
Journal of Climate

  • Alpert, P., I. Osetinsky, B. Zivb, and H. Shafir, 2004: Semi-objective classification for daily synoptic systems: Application to the eastern Mediterranean climate change. Int. J. Climatol., 24 , 1001–1011.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Arakawa, A., and W. H. Schubert, 1974: Interaction of a cumulus cloud ensemble with the large-scale environment, part I. J. Atmos. Sci., 31 , 674–701.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chen, M., D. Pollard, and E. J. Barron, 2003: Comparison of future climate change over North America simulated by two regional models. J. Geophys. Res., 108 , 4348. doi:10.1029/2002JD002738.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Christensen, J. H., and O. B. Christensen, 2007: A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate by the end of this century. Climatic Change, 81 , 7–30.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Christensen, J. H., T. R. Carter, and F. Giorgi, 2002: PRUDENCE employs new methods to assess European climate change. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 83 , 147.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Christensen, J. H., T. R. Carter, M. Rummukainen, and M. Amanatidis, 2007: Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: The PRUDENCE project. Climatic Change, 81 , 1–6.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Coppola, E., and F. Giorgi, 2005: Climate change in tropical regions from high-resolution time-slice AGCM experiments. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131 , 3123–3145.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Déqué, M., and Coauthors, 2007: An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: Assessing uncertainties in model projections. Climatic Change, 81 , 53–70.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dickinson, R. E., A. Henderson-Sellers, and P. J. Kennedy, 1993: Biosphere–Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) version 1E as coupled to the NCAR Community Climate Model. NCAR Tech. Rep. NCAR/TN-387+STR, 72 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Diffenbaugh, N. S., J. S. Pal, R. J. Trapp, and F. Giorgi, 2005: Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 102 , 15774–15778.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Duffy, P. B., and Coauthors, 2006: Simulations of present and future climates in the western United States with four nested regional climate models. J. Climate, 19 , 873–895.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Eshel, G., and B. F. Farrell, 2000: Mechanisms of eastern Mediterranean rainfall variability. J. Atmos. Sci., 57 , 3219–3232.

  • Evans, J. P., R. B. Smith, and R. J. Oglesby, 2004: Middle East climate simulation and dominant precipitation processes. Int. J. Climatol., 24 , 1671–1694.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gao, X., and F. Giorgi, 2008: Increased aridity in the Mediterranean region under greenhouse gas forcing estimated from high resolution simulations with a regional climate model. Global Planet. Change, 62 , 195–209.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gao, X., J. S. Pal, and F. Giorgi, 2006: Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean region from a high resolution double nested RCM simulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33 , L03706. doi:10.1029/2005GL024954.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Giorgi, F., C. Shields, and G. T. Bates, 1994: Regional climate change scenario over the United States predicted with a nested regional climate model. J. Climate, 7 , 375–399.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Giorgi, F., L. O. Mearns, C. Shields, and L. McDaniel, 1998: Regional nested model simulations of present day and 2 × CO2 climate over the central plains of the U.S. Climatic Change, 40 , 457–493.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Giorgi, F., B. Xunquiang, and J. S. Pal, 2004a: Mean, interannual variability and trends in a regional climate change experiment over Europe. I: Present-day climate (1961–1990). Climate Dyn., 22 , 733–756.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Giorgi, F., B. Xunquiang, and J. S. Pal, 2004b: Mean interannual variability and trends in a regional climate change experiment over Europe. II: Climate change scenarios (2071–2100). Climate Dyn., 23 , 839–858.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Graham, L. P., 2004: Climate change effects on river flow to the Baltic Sea. Ambio, 33 , 235–241.

  • Grell, G. A., 1993: Prognostic evaluation of assumptions used by cumulus parameterizations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121 , 764–787.

  • Hewitt, C., 2005: The ENSEMBLES Project—Providing ensemble-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts. EGU Newsletter, No. 13, 22–25. [Available online at http://www.the-eggs.org/data/eggs_13.pdf.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hirakuchi, H., and F. Giorgi, 1995: Multi-year present and 2 × CO2 simulations of monsoon climate over Asia and Japan with a regional climate model nested in a general circulation model. J. Geophys. Res., 100 , 105–126.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Krichak, S. O., and P. Alpert, 2005: Decadal trends in the east Atlantic-west Russia pattern and Mediterranean precipitation. Int. J. Climatol., 82 , 27–39.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Krichak, S. O., M. Tsidulko, and P. Alpert, 2000: Monthly synoptic patterns associated with wet/dry conditions in the eastern Mediterranean. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 65 , 215–229.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Krichak, S. O., P. Alpert, K. Bassat, and P. Kunin, 2007: The surface climatology of the eastern Mediterranean region obtained in a three-member ensemble climate change simulation experiment. Adv. Geosci., 12 , 67–80.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Leung, L. R., Y. Qian, X. Bian, W. M. Washington, J. Han, and J. O. Roads, 2004: Mid-century ensemble regional climate change scenarios for the western United States. Climatic Change, 62 , 75–113.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lin, S-J., 2004: A “vertically Lagrangian” finite-volume dynamical core for global models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132 , 2293–2307.

  • McGregor, J. L., and K. Walsh, 1994: Climate change simulations of Tasmanian precipitation using multiple nesting. J. Geophys. Res., 99 , 20889–20905.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Pal, J. S., E. E. Small, and E. A. B. Eltahir, 2000: Simulation of regional-scale water and energy budgets: Representation of subgrid cloud and precipitation processes within RegCM. J. Geophys. Res., 105 , 29579–29594.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Pal, J. S., F. Giorgi, and X. Bi, 2004: Consistency of recent European summer precipitation trends and extremes with future regional climate projections. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31 , L13202. doi:10.1029/2004GL019836.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Pal, J. S., and Coauthors, 2007: Regional climate modeling for the developing world: The ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88 , 1395–1409.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Räisänen, J., and Coauthors, 2004: European climate in the late twenty-first century: Regional simulations with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios. Climate Dyn., 22 , 13–31.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Yin, J. H., 2005: A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32 , L18701. doi:10.1029/2005GL023684.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 1060 407 33
PDF Downloads 662 220 15