Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

The Response of Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover to a Changing Climate

Ross D. Brown Climate Research Division, Environment Canada at Ouranos Inc., Montréal, Québec, Canada

Search for other papers by Ross D. Brown in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
and
Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group, CSES, JISAO, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

Search for other papers by Philip W. Mote in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
15 Apr 2009
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2665.1
Page(s):
2124–2145
Restricted access

Abstract

A snowpack model sensitivity study, observed changes of snow cover in the NOAA satellite dataset, and snow cover simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel dataset are used to provide new insights into the climate response of Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover. Under conditions of warming and increasing precipitation that characterizes both observed and projected climate change over much of the NH land area with seasonal snow cover, the sensitivity analysis indicated snow cover duration (SCD) was the snow cover variable exhibiting the strongest climate sensitivity, with sensitivity varying with climate regime and elevation. The highest snow cover–climate sensitivity was found in maritime climates with extensive winter snowfall—for example, the coastal mountains of western North America (NA). Analysis of trends in snow cover duration during the 1966–2007 period of NOAA data showed the largest decreases were concentrated in a zone where seasonal mean air temperatures were in the range of −5° to +5°C that extended around the midlatitudinal coastal margins of the continents. These findings were echoed by the climate models that showed earlier and more widespread decreases in SCD than annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWEmax), with the zone of earliest significant decrease located over the maritime margins of NA and western Europe. The lowest SCD–climate sensitivity was observed in continental interior climates with relatively cold and dry winters, where precipitation plays a greater role in snow cover variability. The sensitivity analysis suggested a potentially complex elevation response of SCD and SWEmax to increasing temperature and precipitation in mountain regions as a result of nonlinear interactions between the duration of the snow season and snow accumulation rates.

Corresponding author address: Ross Brown, Environment Canada at Ouranos Inc., 550 Sherbrooke St. West, 19th Fl., Montréal QC H3A 1B9, Canada. Email: ross.brown@ec.gc.ca

Abstract

A snowpack model sensitivity study, observed changes of snow cover in the NOAA satellite dataset, and snow cover simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel dataset are used to provide new insights into the climate response of Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover. Under conditions of warming and increasing precipitation that characterizes both observed and projected climate change over much of the NH land area with seasonal snow cover, the sensitivity analysis indicated snow cover duration (SCD) was the snow cover variable exhibiting the strongest climate sensitivity, with sensitivity varying with climate regime and elevation. The highest snow cover–climate sensitivity was found in maritime climates with extensive winter snowfall—for example, the coastal mountains of western North America (NA). Analysis of trends in snow cover duration during the 1966–2007 period of NOAA data showed the largest decreases were concentrated in a zone where seasonal mean air temperatures were in the range of −5° to +5°C that extended around the midlatitudinal coastal margins of the continents. These findings were echoed by the climate models that showed earlier and more widespread decreases in SCD than annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWEmax), with the zone of earliest significant decrease located over the maritime margins of NA and western Europe. The lowest SCD–climate sensitivity was observed in continental interior climates with relatively cold and dry winters, where precipitation plays a greater role in snow cover variability. The sensitivity analysis suggested a potentially complex elevation response of SCD and SWEmax to increasing temperature and precipitation in mountain regions as a result of nonlinear interactions between the duration of the snow season and snow accumulation rates.

Corresponding author address: Ross Brown, Environment Canada at Ouranos Inc., 550 Sherbrooke St. West, 19th Fl., Montréal QC H3A 1B9, Canada. Email: ross.brown@ec.gc.ca

Save
Cover Journal of Climate
Journal of Climate

  • Anderson, E. A., 1973: National Weather Service River Forecast System—Snow accumulation and ablation model. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS Hydro-17, 217 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bales, R. C., N. P. Molotch, T. H. Painter, M. D. Dettinger, R. Rice, and J. Dozier, 2006: Mountain hydrology of the western United States. Water Resour. Res., 42 , W08432. doi:10.1029/2005WR004387.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Barnett, T. P., and Coauthors, 2008: Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States. Science, 319 , 1080–1083. doi:10.1126/science.1152538.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Barry, R. G., 1984: Possible CO2-induced warming effects on the cryosphere. Climatic Changes on a Yearly to Millennial Basis, N.-A. Mörner and W. Karlén, Eds., D. Reidel, 571–604.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bégin, Y., 2000: Reconstruction of subarctic lake levels over past centuries using tree rings. J. Cold Reg. Eng., 14 , 192–212.

  • Brasnett, B., 1999: A global analysis of snow depth for numerical weather prediction. J. Appl. Meteor., 38 , 726–740.

  • Brohan, P., J. J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S. F. B. Tett, and P. D. Jones, 2006: Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850. J. Geophys. Res., 111 , D12106. doi:10.1029/2005JD006548.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Brown, R. D., 2000: Northern Hemisphere snow cover variability and change, 1915–97. J. Climate, 13 , 2339–2355.

  • Brown, R. D., and R. O. Braaten, 1998: Spatial and temporal variability of Canadian monthly snow depths, 1946-1995. Atmos.–Ocean, 36 , 37–45.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Brown, R. D., and A. Frei, 2007: Comment on “Evaluation of surface albedo and snow cover in AR4 coupled models” by A. Roesch. J. Geophys. Res., 112 , D22102. doi:10.1029/2006JD008339.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Brown, R. D., and N. Petkova, 2007: Snow cover variability in Bulgarian mountainous regions, 1931-2000. Int. J. Climatol., 27 , 1215–1229.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Brown, R. D., B. Brasnett, and D. Robinson, 2003: Gridded North American monthly snow depth and snow water equivalent for GCM evaluation. Atmos.–Ocean, 41 , 1–14.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Brown, R. D., C. Derksen, and L. Wang, 2007: Assessment of spring snow cover duration variability over northern Canada from satellite datasets. Remote Sens. Environ., 111 , 367–381.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Changchun, X., C. Yaning, L. Weihong, C. Yapeng, and G. Hongtao, 2007: Potential impact of climate change on snow cover area in the Tarim River basin. Environ. Geol., 53 , 1465–1474.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Christensen, J. H., and Coauthors, 2007: Regional climate projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 847–940.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cui, X., B. Langmann, and H-F. Graf, 2007: Summer monsoonal rainfall simulation on the Tibetan Plateau with a regional climate model using a one-way double-nesting system. SOLA, 3 , 49–52. doi:10.2151/sola.2007-013.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Derksen, C., A. Walker, and B. Goodison, 2005: Evaluation of passive microwave snow water equivalent retrievals across the boreal forest/tundra transition of western Canada. Remote Sens. Environ., 96 , 315–327.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Derksen, C., R. Brown, and M. MacKay, 2007a: Mackenzie Basin snow cover: Variability and trends from conventional data, satellite remote sensing, and Canadian regional climate model simulations. Atmospheric Dynamics, M.-K. Woo, Ed., Vol. 1, Cold Region Atmospheric and Hydrologic Studies: The Mackenzie GEWEX Experience, Springer-Verlag, 213–240.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Derksen, C., A. Walker, and P. Toose, 2007b: Estimating snow water equivalent in northern regions from satellite passive microwave data. Atmospheric Dynamics, M.-K. Woo, Ed., Vol. 1, Cold Region Atmospheric and Hydrologic Studies: The Mackenzie GEWEX Experience. Springer-Verlag, 195–212.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Déry, S. J., and R. D. Brown, 2007: Recent Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent trends and implications for the snow-albedo feedback. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34 , L22504. doi:10.1029/2007GL031474.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Falarz, M., 2004: Variability and trends in the duration and depth of snow cover in Poland in the 20th century. Int. J. Climatol., 20 , 1723–1727.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Foster Jr., D. J., and R. D. Davy, 1988: Global snow depth climatology. USAF Environmental Technical Applications Center Rep. USAFETAC/TN-88/006, 48 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Foster, J., and Coauthors, 1996: Snow cover and snow mass intercomparisons of general circulation models and remotely sensed datasets. J. Climate, 9 , 409–426.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Frei, A., and D. A. Robinson, 1998: Evaluation of snow extent and its variability in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. J. Geophys. Res., 103 , 8859–8871.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Frei, A., and G. Gong, 2005: Decadal to century scale trends in North American snow extent in coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32 , L18502. doi:10.1029/2005GL023394.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Frei, A., J. A. Miller, and D. A. Robinson, 2003: Improved simulations of snow extent in the second phase of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-2). J. Geophys. Res., 108 , 4369. doi:10.1029/2002JD003030.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Frei, A., R. Brown, J. A. Miller, and D. A. Robinson, 2005: Snow mass over North America: Observations and results from the second phase of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-2). J. Hydrometeor., 6 , 681–695.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Fyfe, J. C., and G. M. Flato, 1999: Enhanced climate change and its detection over the Rocky Mountains. J. Climate, 12 , 230–243.

  • Giorgi, F., J. W. Hurrell, M. R. Marinucci, and M. Beniston, 1997: Elevation signal in surface climate change: A model study. J. Climate, 10 , 288–296.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Goodison, B., and A. E. Walker, 1993: Data needs for detection of climate change: Some challenges. NOAA Glaciological Data Report GD-25, 241–253.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Groisman, P. Ya, T. R. Karl, and R. R. Heim Jr., 1993: Inferences of the North American snowfall and snow cover with recent global temperature changes. NOAA Glaciological Data Rep. GD-25, 44–51.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Groisman, P. Ya, T. R. Karl, and R. W. Knight, 1994: Observed impact of snow cover on the heat balance and the rise of continental spring temperatures. Science, 263 , 198–200.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hamlet, A. F., P. W. Mote, M. P. Clark, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2005: Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on snowpack trends in the western United States. J. Climate, 18 , 4545–4561.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hantel, M., and L-M. Hirtl-Wielke, 2007: Sensitivity of Alpine snow cover to European temperature. Int. J. Climatol., 27 , 1265–1275.

  • Hantel, M., M. Ehrendorfer, and A. Haslinger, 2000: Climate sensitivity of snow cover duration in Austria. Int. J. Climatol., 20 , 615–640.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hennessy, K., P. Whetton, I. Smith, J. Bathols, M. Hutchinson, and J. Sharples, 2003: The impact of climate change on snow conditions in mainland Australia. CSIRO Atmospheric Research, 47 pp. [Available online at http://www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/open/hennessy_2003a.pdf.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Howat, I. M., and S. Tulaczyk, 2005: Climate sensitivity of spring snowpack in the Sierra Nevada. J. Geophys. Res., 110 , F04021. doi:10.1029/2005JF000356.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hyvärinen, V., 2003: Trends and characteristics of hydrological time series in Finland. Nord. Hydrol., 34 , 71–90.

  • Ishizaka, M., 2004: Climatic response of snow depth to recent warmer winter seasons in heavy-snowfall areas in Japan. Ann. Glaciol., 38 , 299–304.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77 , 437–471.

  • Kitaev, L., E. Førland, V. Razuvaev, O. E. Tveito, and O. Krueger, 2005: Distribution of snow cover over northern Eurasia. Nord. Hydrol., 36 , 311–319.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Knowles, N., M. D. Dettinger, and D. R. Cayan, 2006: Trends in snowfall versus rainfall for the western United States. J. Climate, 19 , 4545–4554.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kuusisto, E., 1980: On the values and variability of degree-day melting factor in Finland. Nord. Hydrol., 11 , 235–242.

  • Kuusisto, E., 1984: Snow Accumulation and Snowmelt in Finland. No. 55, Publications of the Water Research Institute, National Board of Waters, Finland, 149 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Laternser, M., and M. Schneebeli, 2003: Long-term snow climate trends of the Swiss Alps (1931–99). Int. J. Climatol., 23 , 733–750.

  • Lavoie, C., and S. Payette, 1992: Black spruce growth as a record of a changing winter environment at treeline, Québec, Canada. Arct. Alp. Res., 25 , 40–49.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lemke, P., and Coauthors, 2007: Observations: Changes in snow, ice and frozen ground. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. S. Solomon et al., Eds, Cambridge University Press, 337–383.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Li, X., and Coauthors, 2008: Cryospheric change in China. Global Planet. Change, 62 , 210–218.

  • Liston, G. E., and M. Sturm, 1998: Global seasonal snow classification system. National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO, digital media. [Available online at http://www.nsidc.org/data/arcss045.html.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mandar, R., M. K. Browne, P. M. Berry, T. P. Dawson, and M. D. Morecroft, 2007: Projecting climate change impacts on mountain snow cover in central Scotland from historical patterns. Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res., 39 , 488–499.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Marshall, S. J., M. J. Sharp, D. O. Burgess, and F. S. Anslow, 2007: Near-surface-temperature lapse rates on the Prince of Wales Icefield, Ellesmere Island, Canada: Implications for regional downscaling of temperature. Int. J. Climatol., 27 , 385–398.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Masiokas, M. H., R. Villalba, B. H. Luckman, C. Le Quesne, and J. C. Aravena, 2006: Snowpack variations in the Central Andes of Argentina and Chile, 1951–2005: Large-scale atmospheric influences and implications for water resources in the region. J. Climate, 19 , 6334–6352.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mearns, L. O., M. Hulme, T. R. Carter, R. Leemans, M. Lal, and P. H. Whetton, 2001: Climate scenario development. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. J. T. Houghton et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 739–768.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Meehl, G. A., C. Covey, T. Delworth, M. Latif, B. McAvaney, J. F. B. Mitchell, R. J. Stouffer, and K. E. Taylor, 2007: The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: A new era in climate change research. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88 , 1383–1394.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Meteorological Service of Canada, 2000: Canadian Snow Data. CRYSYS Project, Climate Processes and Earth Observation Division, Meteorological Service of Canada, CD-ROM [Available online at http://ccin.ca.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Min, S-K., X. Zhang, and F. Zwiers, 2008: Human-induced Arctic moistening. Science, 320 , 518–520.

  • Mote, P. W., 2006: Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America. J. Climate, 19 , 6209–6220.

  • Mote, P. W., A. F. Hamlet, M. P. Clark, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2005: Declining mountain snowpack in western North America. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86 , 39–49.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Music, B., and D. Caya, 2007: Evaluation of the hydrological cycle over the Mississippi River basin as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). J. Hydrometeor., 8 , 969–988.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Nolin, A. W., and C. Daly, 2006: Mapping “at risk” snow in the Pacific Northwest. J. Hydrometeor., 7 , 1164–1171.

  • Payette, S., A. Delwaide, M. Caccianiga, and M. Beauchemin, 2004: Accelerated thawing of subarctic peatland permafrost over the last 50 years. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31 , 18208. doi:10.1029/2004GL020358.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Pomeroy, J. W., and D. M. Gray, 1995: Snowcover accumulation relocation and management. National Hydrology Research Institute Science Rep. 7, 144 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Popova, V., 2007: Winter snow depth variability over northern Eurasia in relation to recent atmospheric circulation changes. Int. J. Climatol., 27 , 1721–1733.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Qin, D., S. Liu, and P. Li, 2006: Snow cover distribution, variability, and response to climate change in western China. J. Climate, 19 , 1820–1833.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Qu, X., and A. Hall, 2007: Assessing snow albedo feedback in simulated climate change. J. Climate, 19 , 2617–2630.

  • Räisänen, J., 2007: Warmer climate: Less or more snow? Climate Dyn., 30 , 307–319. doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0289-y.

  • Ramsay, B., 1998: The interactive multisensor snow and ice mapping system. Hydrol. Processes, 12 , 1537–1546.

  • Randall, D. A., and Coauthors, 2007: Climate models and their evaluation. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 589–662.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rees, A., C. Derksen, M. English, A. Walker, and C. Duguay, 2006: Uncertainty in snow mass retrievals from satellite passive microwave data in lake-rich high-latitude environments. Hydrol. Processes, 20 , 1019–1022.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Regonda, S. K., B. Rajagopalan, M. Clark, and J. Pitlick, 2005: Seasonal cycle shifts in hydroclimatology over the western United States. J. Climate, 18 , 372–384.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Robinson, D. A., 1993: Monitoring Northern Hemisphere snow cover. NOAA Glaciological Data Rep. GD-25, 1–25.

  • Robinson, D. A., F. T. Keimig, and K. F. Dewey, 1991: Recent variations in Northern Hemisphere snow cover. Proc. 15th NOAA Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Asheville, NC, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 219–224.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Robinson, D. A., K. F. Dewey, and R. R. Heim, 1993: Global snow cover monitoring: An update. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74 , 1689–1696.

  • Roesch, A., 2006: Evaluation of surface albedo and snow cover in AR4 coupled climate models. J. Geophys. Res., 111 , D15111. doi:10.1029/2005JD006473.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Scherrer, S. C., C. Appenzeller, and M. Laternser, 2004: Trends in Swiss alpine snow days: The role of local- and large-scale climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31 , L13215. doi:10.1029/2004GL020255.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Sen, P. K., 1968: Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., 63 , 1379–1389.

  • Sturm, M., J. Holmgren, and G. E. Liston, 1995: A seasonal snow cover classification system for local to global applications. J. Climate, 8 , 1261–1283.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Vojtek, M., P. Faško, and P. Št’astný, 2003: Some selected snow climate trends in Slovakia with respect to altitude. Acta Meteor. Univ. Comenianae, 32 , 17–27.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Wang, L., M. Sharp, R. Brown, C. Derksen, and B. Rivard, 2005: Evaluation of spring snow covered area depletion in the Canadian Arctic from NOAA snow charts. Remote Sens. Environ., 95 , 453–463.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Yang, J., Y. Ding, S. Liu, and J-F. Liu, 2007: Variations of snow cover in the source regions of the Yangtse and Yellow Rivers in China between 1960 and 1999. J. Glaciol., 53 , 420–426.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Ye, H., 2001: Increases in snow season length due to earlier first snow and later last snow dates over north central and northwest Asia during 1937–94. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28 , 551–554.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Ye, H., H-R. Cho, and P. E. Gustafson, 1998: The changes in Russian winter snow accumulation during 1936–83 and its spatial patterns. J. Climate, 11 , 856–863.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Zhang, G-S., X-H. Shi, D-L. Li, Q-C. Wang, and S. Dai, 2006: Climate change in Tuotuohe area at the headwaters of Yangtze River. J. Glaciol. Geocryol., 28 , 678–685.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Zhang, X., L. A. Vincent, W. D. Hogg, and A. Niitsoo, 2000: Temperature and precipitation trends in Canada during the 20th century. Atmos.–Ocean, 38 , 395–429.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Zhang, X., F. W. Zwiers, G. C. Hegerl, F. H. Lambert, N. P. Gillet, S. Solomon, P. A. Stott, and T. Nozawa, 2007: Detection of human influences on twentieth-century precipitation trends. Nature, 448 , 461–465. doi:10.1038/nature06025.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Zhao, H., and G. W. K. Moore, 2006: Reduction in Himalayan snow accumulation and weakening of the trade winds over the Pacific since the 1840s. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33 , L17709. doi:10.1029/2006GL027339.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 6386 2195 508
PDF Downloads 3329 594 65