Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

The Influence of Large-Scale Climate Variability on Winter Maximum Daily Precipitation over North America

Xuebin Zhang Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

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Jiafeng Wang Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

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Francis W. Zwiers Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

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Pavel Ya Groisman UCAR Project Scientist at National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina

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Print Publication:
01 Jun 2010
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3249.1
Page(s):
2902–2915
Restricted access

Abstract

The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is fitted to winter season daily maximum precipitation over North America, with indices representing El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as predictors. It was found that ENSO and PDO have spatially consistent and statistically significant influences on extreme precipitation, while the influence of NAO is regional and is not field significant. The spatial pattern of extreme precipitation response to large-scale climate variability is similar to that of total precipitation but somewhat weaker in terms of statistical significance. An El Niño condition or high phase of PDO corresponds to a substantially increased likelihood of extreme precipitation over a vast region of southern North America but a decreased likelihood of extreme precipitation in the north, especially in the Great Plains and Canadian prairies and the Great Lakes/Ohio River valley.

* UCAR Visiting Scientist, Boulder, Colorado

Corresponding author address: Dr. Xuebin Zhang, Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, ON M3H 5T4, Canada. Email: xuebin.zhang@ec.gc.ca

Abstract

The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is fitted to winter season daily maximum precipitation over North America, with indices representing El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as predictors. It was found that ENSO and PDO have spatially consistent and statistically significant influences on extreme precipitation, while the influence of NAO is regional and is not field significant. The spatial pattern of extreme precipitation response to large-scale climate variability is similar to that of total precipitation but somewhat weaker in terms of statistical significance. An El Niño condition or high phase of PDO corresponds to a substantially increased likelihood of extreme precipitation over a vast region of southern North America but a decreased likelihood of extreme precipitation in the north, especially in the Great Plains and Canadian prairies and the Great Lakes/Ohio River valley.

* UCAR Visiting Scientist, Boulder, Colorado

Corresponding author address: Dr. Xuebin Zhang, Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, ON M3H 5T4, Canada. Email: xuebin.zhang@ec.gc.ca

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