• Barsugli, J. J., and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 2002: Global atmospheric sensitivity to tropical SST anomalies throughout the Indo-Pacific basin. J. Climate, 15 , 34273442.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Barsugli, J. J., S-I. Shin, and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 2006: Sensitivity of global warming to the pattern of tropical ocean warming. Climate Dyn., 27 , 483492.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chen, M., P. Xie, J. E. Janowiak, and P. A. Arkin, 2002: Global land precipitation: A 50-yr monthly analysis based on gauge observations. J. Hydrometeor., 3 , 249266.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cook, E. R., C. A. Woodhouse, C. M. Eakin, D. M. Meko, and D. W. Stahle, 2004: Long-Term Aridity Changes in the Western United States. Science, 306 , 10151018.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dai, A., K. E. Trenberth, and T. R. Karl, 1998: Global variations in droughts and wet spells. Geophys. Res. Lett., 17 , 33673370.

  • Dai, A., K. E. Trenberth, and T. Qian, 2004: A global dataset of Palmer drought severity index for 1870–2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. J. Hydrometeor., 5 , 11171130.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gu, C., 1989: RKPACK and its applications: Fitting smoothing spline models. Proceedings of the Statistical Computing Section, Alexandria, VA, American Statistical Association, 42–51.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hansen, J. E., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, M. Imhoff, W. Lawrence, D. Esterling, T. Peterson, and T. Karl, 2001: A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res., 106 , 2394723963.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hoerling, M., and A. Kumar, 2003: The perfect ocean for drought. Science, 299 , 691694.

  • Kiehl, J. T., J. J. Hack, G. B. Bonan, B. A. Bovile, D. A. Williamson, and P. J. Rasch, 1998: The National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model: CCM3. J. Climate, 11 , 11311149.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mitchell, T. D., and P. D. Jones, 2005: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int. J. Climatol., 25 , 693712.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Palmer, W. C., 1965: Meteorological drought. U.S. Department of Commerce Research Paper 45, 58 pp.

  • Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Powell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108 , 4407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Roeckner, E., and Coauthors, 2003: The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5. Part I: Model description. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Rep. 349, 127 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Roeckner, E., and Coauthors, 2006: Sensitivity of simulated climate to horizontal and vertical resolution in the ECHAM5 atmosphere model. J. Climate, 19 , 37713791.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rudolf, B., C. Beck, J. Grieser, and U. Schneider, 2005: Global precipitation analysis products. Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), DWD Publ., 1–8.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schubert, S. D., M. J. Suarez, P. J. Region, R. D. Koster, and J. T. Bacmeister, 2004: On the cause of the 1930s Dust Bowl. Science, 303 , 18551859.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schubert, S. D., and Coauthors, 2009: A U.S. CLIVAR project to assess and compare the responses of global climate models to drought-related SST forcing patterns: Overview and results. J. Climate, 22 , 52515272.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Seager, R., 2007: The turn of the century North American drought: Global context, dynamics, and past analogs. J. Climate, 20 , 55275552.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, C. Herweijer, N. Naik, and J. Velez, 2005: Modeling of tropical forcing of persistent droughts and pluvials over western North America: 1856–2000. J. Climate, 18 , 40654088.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Seager, R., N. Graham, C. Herweijer, A. L. Gordon, Y. Kushnir, and E. Cook, 2007: Blueprints for Medieval hydroclimate. Quat. Sci. Rev., 26 , 23222336.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shin, S., P. D. Sardeshmukh, R. S. Webb, R. J. Oglesby, and J. J. Barsugli, 2006: Understanding the mid-Holocene climate. J. Climate, 19 , 28012817.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Smith, T. M., and R. W. Reynolds, 2005: A global merged land–air–sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880–1997). J. Climate, 18 , 20212036.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, M. Marquis, K. Averyt, M. M. B. Tignor, H. L. Miller Jr., and Z. Chen, Eds. 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, 996 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ting, M., and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 1993: Factors determining the extratropical response to equatorial diabatic heating anomalies. J. Atmos. Sci., 50 , 907918.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ting, M., and H. Wang, 1997: Summertime U.S. precipitation variability and its relation to Pacific sea surface temperatures. J. Climate, 10 , 18531873.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Trenberth, K. E., A. Dai, R. M. Rasmussen, and D. B. Parsons, 2003: The changing character of precipitation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84 , 12051217.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, C., D. B. Enfield, S-K. Lee, and C. W. Landsea, 2006: Influences of the Atlantic warm pool on Western Hemisphere summer rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes. J. Climate, 19 , 30113028.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Webb, R. S., C. E. Rosenzwig, and E. R. Levine, 1993: Specifying land surface characteristics in general circulation models: Soil profile data set and derived water-holding capacities. Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 7 , 97108.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wells, N., S. Goddard, and M. J. Hayes, 2004: A self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index. J. Climate, 17 , 23352351.

  • Wilhite, D. A., 2000: Drought as a natural hazard: Concepts and definitions. Droughts: A Global Assessment, D. A. Wilhite, Ed., Routledge, 3–18.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 1 1 1
PDF Downloads 1 1 1

Optimal Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Forcing of North American Drought

View More View Less
  • 1 CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, University of Colorado, and NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado
  • | 2 NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado
Restricted access

Abstract

The optimal anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) pattern for forcing North American drought is identified through atmospheric general circulation model integrations in which the response of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) is determined for each of 43 prescribed localized SST anomaly “patches” in a regular array over the tropical oceans. The robustness and relevance of the optimal pattern are established through the consistency of results obtained using two different models, and also by the good correspondence of the projection time series of historical tropical SST anomaly fields on the optimal pattern with the time series of the simulated PDSI in separate model integrations with prescribed time-varying observed global SST fields for 1920–2005. It is noteworthy that this optimal drought forcing pattern differs markedly in the Pacific Ocean from the dominant SST pattern associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and also shows a large sensitivity of North American drought to Indian and Atlantic Ocean SSTs.

* Current affiliation: University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, Florida

Corresponding author address: Dr. Sang-Ik Shin, College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, 140 7th Ave. S., St. Petersburg, FL 33701. Email: sangikshin@marine.usf.edu

Abstract

The optimal anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) pattern for forcing North American drought is identified through atmospheric general circulation model integrations in which the response of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) is determined for each of 43 prescribed localized SST anomaly “patches” in a regular array over the tropical oceans. The robustness and relevance of the optimal pattern are established through the consistency of results obtained using two different models, and also by the good correspondence of the projection time series of historical tropical SST anomaly fields on the optimal pattern with the time series of the simulated PDSI in separate model integrations with prescribed time-varying observed global SST fields for 1920–2005. It is noteworthy that this optimal drought forcing pattern differs markedly in the Pacific Ocean from the dominant SST pattern associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and also shows a large sensitivity of North American drought to Indian and Atlantic Ocean SSTs.

* Current affiliation: University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, Florida

Corresponding author address: Dr. Sang-Ik Shin, College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, 140 7th Ave. S., St. Petersburg, FL 33701. Email: sangikshin@marine.usf.edu

Save