Great Plains Precipitation and Its SST Links in Twentieth-Century Climate Simulations, and Twenty-First- and Twenty-Second-Century Climate Projections

Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, Maryland

Search for other papers by Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
and
Sumant Nigam Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, and Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, Maryland

Search for other papers by Sumant Nigam in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

The present work assesses spring and summer precipitation over North America as well as summer precipitation variability over the central United States and its SST links in simulations of the twentieth-century climate and projections of the twenty-first- and twenty-second-century climates for the A1B scenario.

The observed spatial structure of spring and summer precipitation poses a challenge for models, particularly over the western and central United States. Tendencies in spring precipitation in the twenty-first century agree with the observed ones at the end of the twentieth century over a wetter north-central and a drier southwestern United States, and a drier southeastern Mexico. Projected wetter springs over the Great Plains in the twenty-first and twenty-second centuries are associated with an increase in the number of extreme springs. In contrast, projected summer tendencies have demonstrated little consistency. The associated observed changes in SSTs bear the global warming footprint, which is not well captured in the twentieth-century climate simulations.

Precipitation variability over the Great Plains presents a coherent picture in spring but not in summer. Models project an increase in springtime precipitation variability owing to an increased number of extreme springs. The number of extreme droughty (pluvial) events during the spring–fall part of the year is under(over)estimated in the twentieth century without consistent projections.

Summer precipitation variability over the Great Plains is linked to SSTs over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, with no apparent ENSO link in spite of the exaggerated variability in the equatorial Pacific in climate simulations; this has been identified already in observations and atmospheric models forced with historical SSTs. This link is concealed due to the increased warming in the twenty-first century. Deficiencies in land surface–atmosphere interactions and global teleconnections in the climate models prevent them from a better portrayal of summer precipitation variability in the central United States.

Corresponding author address: Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, 3405 Computer and Space Sciences Bldg., University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD 20742-2425. Email: alfredo@atmos.umd.edu

This article included in the U.S. CLIVAR Drought special collection.

Abstract

The present work assesses spring and summer precipitation over North America as well as summer precipitation variability over the central United States and its SST links in simulations of the twentieth-century climate and projections of the twenty-first- and twenty-second-century climates for the A1B scenario.

The observed spatial structure of spring and summer precipitation poses a challenge for models, particularly over the western and central United States. Tendencies in spring precipitation in the twenty-first century agree with the observed ones at the end of the twentieth century over a wetter north-central and a drier southwestern United States, and a drier southeastern Mexico. Projected wetter springs over the Great Plains in the twenty-first and twenty-second centuries are associated with an increase in the number of extreme springs. In contrast, projected summer tendencies have demonstrated little consistency. The associated observed changes in SSTs bear the global warming footprint, which is not well captured in the twentieth-century climate simulations.

Precipitation variability over the Great Plains presents a coherent picture in spring but not in summer. Models project an increase in springtime precipitation variability owing to an increased number of extreme springs. The number of extreme droughty (pluvial) events during the spring–fall part of the year is under(over)estimated in the twentieth century without consistent projections.

Summer precipitation variability over the Great Plains is linked to SSTs over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, with no apparent ENSO link in spite of the exaggerated variability in the equatorial Pacific in climate simulations; this has been identified already in observations and atmospheric models forced with historical SSTs. This link is concealed due to the increased warming in the twenty-first century. Deficiencies in land surface–atmosphere interactions and global teleconnections in the climate models prevent them from a better portrayal of summer precipitation variability in the central United States.

Corresponding author address: Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, 3405 Computer and Space Sciences Bldg., University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD 20742-2425. Email: alfredo@atmos.umd.edu

This article included in the U.S. CLIVAR Drought special collection.

Save
  • Barlow, M., S. Nigam, and E. H. Berbery, 2001: ENSO, Pacific decadal variability, and U.S. summertime precipitation, drought, and streamflow. J. Climate, 14 , 21052128.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Barsugli, J. J., S-I. Shin, and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 2006: Sensitivity of global warming to the pattern of tropical ocean warming. Climate Dyn., 27 , 483492. doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0143-7.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Breugem, W-P., W. Hazeleger, and R. J. Haarsma, 2006: Multimodel study of tropical Atlantic variability and change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33 , L23706. doi:10.1029/2006GL027831.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Burke, E. J., S. J. Brown, and N. Christidis, 2006: Modeling the recent evolution of global drought projections for the twenty-first century with the Hadley Centre climate model. J. Hydrometeor., 7 , 11131125.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Collins, W. D. Coauthors 2006: The Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). J. Climate, 19 , 21222143.

  • Cook, K. H., E. K. Vizy, Z. S. Launer, and C. M. Patricola, 2008: Springtime intensification of the Great Plains low-level jet and Midwest precipitation in GCM simulations of the twenty-first century. J. Climate, 21 , 63216340.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dai, A., K. E. Trenberth, and T. Qian, 2004: A global dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870–2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. J. Hydrometeor., 5 , 11171130.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Delworth, T. L. Coauthors 2006: GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics. J. Climate, 19 , 643674.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, and J. W. Hurrell, 2004: Pacific interdecadal climate variability: Linkages between the tropics and the North Pacific during boreal winter since 1900. J. Climate, 17 , 31093124.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Enfield, D. B., A. M. Mestas-Nuñez, and P. J. Trimble, 2001: The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28 , 20772080.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Furtado, J. C., E. Di Lorenzo, N. Schneider, J. E. Overland, and N. A. Bond, 2011: North Pacific decadal variability and climate change in the IPCC AR4 models. J. Climate, in press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gordon, C., C. Cooper, C. A. Senior, H. Banks, J. M. Gregory, T. C. Johns, J. F. B. Mitchell, and R. A. Wood, 2000: The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Climate Dyn., 16 , 147168.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Guan, B., and S. Nigam, 2008: Pacific sea surface temperatures in the twentieth century: An evolution-centric analysis of variability and trend. J. Climate, 21 , 27902809.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hoerling, M., and A. Kumar, 2003: The perfect ocean for drought. Science, 299 , 691694.

  • Joseph, R., and S. Nigam, 2006: ENSO evolution and teleconnections in IPCC’s twentieth-century climate simulations: Realistic representation? J. Climate, 19 , 43604377.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Marsland, S., H. Haak, J. Jungclaus, M. Latif, and F. Röske, 2003: The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates. Ocean Modell., 5 , 91127.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McCabe, G. J., M. A. Palecki, and J. L. Betancourt, 2004: Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 101 , 41364141.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McCabe, G. J., J. L. Betancourt, S. T. Gray, M. A. Palecki, and H. G. Hidalgo, 2008: Associations of multi-decadal sea-surface temperature variability with US drought. Quat. Int., 188 , 3140.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Meehl, G. A., C. Covey, T. Delworth, M. Latif, B. McAvaney, J. F. B. Mitchell, R. J. Stouffer, and K. E. Taylor, 2007: The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: A new era in climate change research. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88 , 13831394.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Merryfield, W. J., 2006: Changes to ENSO under CO2 doubling in a multimodel ensemble. J. Climate, 19 , 40094027.

  • Mitchell, T. D., 2005: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high resolution grids. Int. J. Climatol., 25 , 693712.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nakicenovic, N. Coauthors 2000: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. N. Nakicenovic and R. Swart, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 612 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nigam, S., and A. Ruiz-Barradas, 2006: Seasonal hydroclimate variability over North America in global and regional reanalysis and AMIP simulations: Varied representation. J. Climate, 19 , 815837.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pope, V. D., M. L. Gallani, P. R. Rowntree, and R. A. Stratton, 2000: The impact of new physical parameterizations in the Hadley Centre climate model–HadAM3. Climate Dyn., 16 , 123146.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108 , 4407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Roeckner, E. Coauthors 2003: The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5. Part I: Model description. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Rep. 349, 140 pp. [Available online at http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/fileadmin/publikationen/Reports/max_scirep_349.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ruiz-Barradas, A., and S. Nigam, 2005: Warm-season precipitation variability over the U.S. Great Plains in observations, NCEP and ERA-40 reanalyses, and NCAR and NASA atmospheric model simulations. J. Climate, 18 , 18081830.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ruiz-Barradas, A., and S. Nigam, 2006: IPCC’s twentieth-century climate simulations: Varied representations of North American hydroclimate variability. J. Climate, 19 , 40414058.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ruiz-Barradas, A., and S. Nigam, 2010: SST–North American hydroclimate links in AMIP simulations of the Drought Working Group models: A proxy for the idealized drought modeling experiments. J. Climate, 23 , 25852598.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schubert, S. D., M. J. Suarez, P. J. Pegion, R. D. Koster, and J. T. Bacmeister, 2004: Causes of long-term drought in the U.S. Great Plains. J. Climate, 17 , 485503.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schubert, S. D. Coauthors 2009: A U.S. CLIVAR project to assess and compare the responses of global climate models to drought-related SST forcing patterns: Overview and results. J. Climate, 22 , 52515272.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, C. Herweijer, N. Naik, and J. Velez, 2005: Modeling of tropical forcing of persistent droughts and pluvials over western North America: 1856–2000. J. Climate, 18 , 40654088.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller, Eds. 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, 996 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sutton, R. T., and D. L. R. Hodson, 2005: Atlantic Ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate. Science, 309 , 115118.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ting, M., and H. Wang, 1997: Summertime U.S. precipitation variability and its relation to Pacific sea surface temperature. J. Climate, 10 , 18531873.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • van Oldenborgh, G. J., S. Y. Philip, and M. Collins, 2005: El Niño in a changing climate: A multi-model study. Ocean Sci., 1 , 8195.

  • Wang, C., D. B. Enfield, S-K. Lee, and C. W. Landsea, 2006: Influences of the Atlantic warm pool on Western Hemisphere summer rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes. J. Climate, 19 , 30113028.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Weaver, S. J., and S. Nigam, 2008: Variability of the Great Plains low-level jet: Large-scale circulation context and hydroclimate impacts. J. Climate, 20 , 15321551.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 851 307 53
PDF Downloads 136 56 1