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Why Is ENSO Influencing Northwest India Winter Precipitation in Recent Decades?

R. K. Yadav Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India

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J. H. Yoo Earth System Physics Section, Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy

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F. Kucharski Earth System Physics Section, Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy

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M. A. Abid Global Change Impact Studies Centre, Islamabad, Pakistan

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Print Publication:
15 Apr 2010
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3202.1
Page(s):
1979–1993
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Abstract

This study examines decadal changes of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on the interannual variability of northwest India winter precipitation (NWIWP). The analysis is based on correlations and regressions performed using India Meteorological Department (IMD) records based on station data and reanalysis fields from 1950 to 2008. The authors find that the interannual variability of NWIWP is influenced by the ENSO phenomenon in the recent decades. This conclusion is supported by a consistency across the different observational datasets employed in this study and confirmed by numerical modeling. A physical mechanism for such an influence is proposed, by which western disturbances (WDs) are intensified over northwest India because of a baroclinic response due to Sverdrup balance related to large-scale sinking motion over the western Pacific during the warm phase of ENSO. This response causes an upper-level cyclonic circulation anomaly north of India and a low-level anticyclonic anomaly over southern and central India. The cyclonic circulation anomaly intensifies the WDs passing over northwest India.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Ramesh Kumar Yadav, Climatology and Hydrometeorology Division, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune 411 008, Maharashtra, India. Email: yadav@tropmet.res.in

Abstract

This study examines decadal changes of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on the interannual variability of northwest India winter precipitation (NWIWP). The analysis is based on correlations and regressions performed using India Meteorological Department (IMD) records based on station data and reanalysis fields from 1950 to 2008. The authors find that the interannual variability of NWIWP is influenced by the ENSO phenomenon in the recent decades. This conclusion is supported by a consistency across the different observational datasets employed in this study and confirmed by numerical modeling. A physical mechanism for such an influence is proposed, by which western disturbances (WDs) are intensified over northwest India because of a baroclinic response due to Sverdrup balance related to large-scale sinking motion over the western Pacific during the warm phase of ENSO. This response causes an upper-level cyclonic circulation anomaly north of India and a low-level anticyclonic anomaly over southern and central India. The cyclonic circulation anomaly intensifies the WDs passing over northwest India.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Ramesh Kumar Yadav, Climatology and Hydrometeorology Division, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune 411 008, Maharashtra, India. Email: yadav@tropmet.res.in

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