Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

The Madden–Julian Oscillation and the Relative Value of Deterministic Forecasts of Extreme Precipitation in the Contiguous United States

Charles Jones Earth Research Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California

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Leila M. V. Carvalho Earth Research Institute, and Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California

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Jon Gottschalck NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, Maryland

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Wayne Higgins NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, Maryland

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Print Publication:
15 May 2011
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI-D-10-05002.1
Page(s):
2421–2428
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Abstract

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability that impacts weather and climate. Forecast skill of extreme precipitation in the contiguous United States (CONUS) during winter is higher when the MJO is active and has enhanced convection over the Western Hemisphere, Africa, and/or the western Indian Ocean. This study applies a simple decision model to examine the relationships between the MJO and the relative value of deterministic forecasts of extreme precipitation. Value in the forecasts is significantly higher and extends to longer leads (2 weeks) during active MJO.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Charles Jones, Earth Research Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106. E-mail: cjones@eri.ucsb.edu

Abstract

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability that impacts weather and climate. Forecast skill of extreme precipitation in the contiguous United States (CONUS) during winter is higher when the MJO is active and has enhanced convection over the Western Hemisphere, Africa, and/or the western Indian Ocean. This study applies a simple decision model to examine the relationships between the MJO and the relative value of deterministic forecasts of extreme precipitation. Value in the forecasts is significantly higher and extends to longer leads (2 weeks) during active MJO.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Charles Jones, Earth Research Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106. E-mail: cjones@eri.ucsb.edu
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