Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Global Monsoon, El Niño, and Their Interannual Linkage Simulated by MIROC5 and the CMIP3 CGCMs

Hyung-Jin Kim Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan

Search for other papers by Hyung-Jin Kim in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Kumiko Takata Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan

Search for other papers by Kumiko Takata in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Bin Wang International Pacific Research Center, and Department of Meteorology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

Search for other papers by Bin Wang in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Masahiro Watanabe Atmospheric and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan

Search for other papers by Masahiro Watanabe in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Masahide Kimoto Atmospheric and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan

Search for other papers by Masahide Kimoto in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Tokuta Yokohata Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki, Japan

Search for other papers by Tokuta Yokohata in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
, and
Tetsuzo Yasunari Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, and Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan

Search for other papers by Tetsuzo Yasunari in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
01 Nov 2011
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4132.1
Page(s):
5604–5618
Restricted access

Abstract

This study evaluates the capability of coupled global climate models (CGCMs) in simulating the prime examples of the forced response (global monsoon) and internal feedback process (El Niño). Emphases are also placed on the fidelity of the year-to-year variability of global monsoon precipitation that is coordinated by the interannual sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuation over the tropics. The latest version of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 5 (MIROC5) with advanced physical schemes is compared with the two previous versions (MIROC3.2, high- and medium-resolution versions) and with the 20 CGCMs participating in the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The climatological annual mean and cycles of precipitation and 850-hPa winds, the key components to demarcate the global monsoon domain, are reproduced better in MIROC5 than in MIROC3 versions. As a consequence, the former considerably outperforms the latter and is generally superior to the CMIP3 CGCMs in replicating the intensity and domain of global monsoon precipitation and circulations. These results highlight the importance of the improved physical parameterization in a model. Analyses of the monthly Niño-3 index suggest that the amplitude and periodicity of El Niño are simulated better in MIROC5 than in the MIROC3 versions. Yet the reality of nonlinear ENSO dynamics measured indirectly by the SST asymmetricity over the equatorial Pacific is unsatisfactory in the MIROC family as well as in the majority of the CMIP3 models. The maximum covariance analysis shows that a significant fraction of the interannual global monsoon rainfall variability is in concert with El Niño. The multimodel results reveal that such coupling is robust across the current CGCMs. More importantly, the fidelity of the global monsoon precipitation significantly relies on the realism of tropical SST. Comparison among the MIROC models suggests that improved El Niño is likely attributable to the more realistic Bjerknes feedback loop, which results from the intensified convective activity over the equatorial central Pacific Ocean.

Corresponding author address: Hyung-Jin Kim, Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan. E-mail: hyungjin@jamstec.go.jp

Abstract

This study evaluates the capability of coupled global climate models (CGCMs) in simulating the prime examples of the forced response (global monsoon) and internal feedback process (El Niño). Emphases are also placed on the fidelity of the year-to-year variability of global monsoon precipitation that is coordinated by the interannual sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuation over the tropics. The latest version of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 5 (MIROC5) with advanced physical schemes is compared with the two previous versions (MIROC3.2, high- and medium-resolution versions) and with the 20 CGCMs participating in the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The climatological annual mean and cycles of precipitation and 850-hPa winds, the key components to demarcate the global monsoon domain, are reproduced better in MIROC5 than in MIROC3 versions. As a consequence, the former considerably outperforms the latter and is generally superior to the CMIP3 CGCMs in replicating the intensity and domain of global monsoon precipitation and circulations. These results highlight the importance of the improved physical parameterization in a model. Analyses of the monthly Niño-3 index suggest that the amplitude and periodicity of El Niño are simulated better in MIROC5 than in the MIROC3 versions. Yet the reality of nonlinear ENSO dynamics measured indirectly by the SST asymmetricity over the equatorial Pacific is unsatisfactory in the MIROC family as well as in the majority of the CMIP3 models. The maximum covariance analysis shows that a significant fraction of the interannual global monsoon rainfall variability is in concert with El Niño. The multimodel results reveal that such coupling is robust across the current CGCMs. More importantly, the fidelity of the global monsoon precipitation significantly relies on the realism of tropical SST. Comparison among the MIROC models suggests that improved El Niño is likely attributable to the more realistic Bjerknes feedback loop, which results from the intensified convective activity over the equatorial central Pacific Ocean.

Corresponding author address: Hyung-Jin Kim, Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan. E-mail: hyungjin@jamstec.go.jp
Save
Cover Journal of Climate
Journal of Climate

  • AchutaRao, K. M., and K. R. Sperber, 2006: ENSO simulation in coupled ocean-atmosphere models: Are the current models better? Climate Dyn., 27, 1–15.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Adler, R. F., and Coauthors, 2003: The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979–present). J. Hydrometeor., 4, 1147–1167.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • An, S.-I., and F. F. Jin, 2004: Nonlinearity and asymmetry of ENSO. J. Climate, 17, 2399–2412.

  • An, S.-I., Y.-G. Ham, J.-S. Kug, F.-F. Jin, and I.-S. Kang, 2005: El Niño–La Niña asymmetry in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations. J. Climate, 18, 2617–2627.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Annamalai, H., K. Hamilton, and K. R. Sperber, 2007: South Asian summer monsoon and its relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 simulations. J. Climate, 20, 1071–1092.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bjerknes, J., 1969: Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 97, 163–172.

  • Bretherton, C. S., C. Smith, and J. M. Wallace, 1992: An intercomparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in climate data. J. Climate, 5, 541–560.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chang, C.-P., Z. Wang, J. McBride, and C.-H. Liu, 2005: Annual cycle of Southeast Asia–Maritime Continent rainfall and the asymmetric monsoon transition. J. Climate, 18, 287–301.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chen, M., P. Xie, J. E. Janowiak, and P. A. Arkin, 2002: Global land precipitation: A 50-yr monthly analysis based on gauge observations. J. Hydrometeor., 3, 249–266.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chikira, M., 2010: A cumulus parameterization with state-dependent entrainment rate. Part II: Impact on climatology in a general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 2194–2211.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chikira, M., and Sugiyama, M., 2010: A cumulus parameterization with state-dependent entrainment rate. Part I: Description and sensitivity to temperature and humidity profiles. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 2171–2193.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Collins, M., and Coauthors, 2010: The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño. Nat. Geosci., 3, 391–397.

  • Guilyardi, E., A. Wittenberg, A. Fedorov, M. Collins, C. Wang, A. Capotondi, G. J. van Oldenborgh, and T. Stockdale, 2009: Understanding El Niño in ocean–atmosphere general circulation models: Progress and challenges. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 325–340.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Jin, E. K., and Coauthors, 2008: Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean–atmosphere model. Climate Dyn., 31, 647–664.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Jin, F.-F., S.-I. An, A. Timmermann, and J. Zhao, 2003: Strong El Niño events and nonlinear dynamical heating. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1120, doi:10.1029/2002GL016356.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Joseph, R., and S. Nigam, 2006: ENSO evolution and teleconnections in IPCC’s twentieth-century climate simulations: Realistic representation? J. Climate, 19, 4360–4377.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kanamitsu, M., W. Ebisuzaki, J. Woollen, S.-K. Yang, J. J. Hnilo, M. Fiorino, and G. L. Potter, 2002: NCEP–DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 1631–1643.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kim, H.-J., B. Wang, and Q. Ding, 2008: The global monsoon variability simulated by CMIP3 coupled climate models. J. Climate, 21, 5271–5294.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Latif, M., and Coauthors, 2001: ENSIP: The El Niño Simulation Intercomparison Project. Climate Dyn., 18, 255–276.

  • Lau, K.-M., and S. Yang, 2003: Walker circulation. Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, J. R. Holton, J. A. Pyle, and J. A. Curry, Eds., Academic Press, 2505–2510.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lin, J.-L., 2007: Interdecadal variability of ENSO in 21 IPCC AR4 coupled GCMs. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L12702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028937.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mechoso, C. R., and Coauthors, 1995: The seasonal cycle over the tropical Pacific in coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 2825–2838.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Neelin, J. D., and Coauthors, 1992: Tropical air-sea interaction in general circulation models. Climate Dyn., 7, 73–104.

  • Polito, P. S., O. T. Sato, and I. Wainer, 2008: Height variability from the MIROC–IPCC model for the 20th century compared to that of the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter. Ocean Modell., 24, 73–91.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Shiogama, H., A. Hasegawa, T. Nozawa, and S. Emori, 2008: Changes in mean and extreme precipitation in near-term predictions up to the year 2030. SOLA, 4, 17–20.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Smith, T. M., R. W. Reynolds, T. C. Peterson, and J. Lawrimore, 2008: Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land–ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006). J. Climate, 21, 2283–2296.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Sperber, K. R., and T. N., Palmer, 1996: Interannual tropical rainfall variability in general circulation model simulations associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. J. Climate, 9, 2727–2750.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Sperber, K. R., and Coauthors, 1999: Are revised models better models? A skill score assessment of regional interannual variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 1267–1270.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Sugiyama, M., H. Shiogamab, and S. Emori, 2010: Precipitation extreme changes exceeding moisture content increases in MIROC and IPCC climate models. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 571–575.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Tanaka, M., 1997: Interannual and interdecadal variations of the western North Pacific monsoon and the East Asian Baiu rainfall and their relationship to ENSO cycles. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 75, 1109–1123.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Trenberth, K. E., D. P. Stepaniak, and J. M. Caron, 2000: The global monsoon as seen through the divergent atmospheric circulation. J. Climate, 13, 3969–3993.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • van Oldenborgh, G. J., S. Y. Philip, and M. Collins, 2005: El Niño in a changing climate: A multi-model study. Ocean Sci., 1, 81–95.

  • Vecchi, G. A., and A. T. Wittenberg, 2010: El Niño and our future climate: Where do we stand? Wiley Interdiscip. Rev.: Climate Change, 1, 260–270.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Wang, B., and Q. Ding, 2006: Changes in global monsoon precipitation over the past 56 years. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L06711, doi:10.1029/2005GL025347.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Wang, B., and Q. Ding, 2008: Global monsoon: Dominant mode of annual variation in the tropics. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 44, 165–183.

  • Wang, B., H.-J. Kim, K. Kikuchi, and A. Kitoh, 2011a: Diagnostic metrics for evaluation of annual and diurnal cycles. Climate Dyn., 37, 941–955, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0877-0.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Wang, X., D. Wang, and W. Zhou, 2009: Decadal variability of twentieth-century El Niño and La Niña occurrence from observations and IPCC AR4 coupled models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L11701, doi:10.1029/2009GL037929.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Watanabe, M., and Coauthors, 2010: Improved climate simulation by MIROC5: Mean states, variability, and climate sensitivity. J. Climate, 23, 6312–6335.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Watanabe, M., M. Chikira, Y. Imada, and M. Kimoto, 2011: Convective control of ENSO simulated in MIROC. J. Climate, 24, 543–562.

  • White, H. G., 1980: Skewness, kurtosis and extreme values of Northern Hemisphere geopotential heights. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 1446–1455.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction. International Geophysics Series, Vol. 59, Academic Press, 467 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Wu, R., and B. Wang, 2000: Interannual variability of summer monsoon onset over the western North Pacific and the underlying processes. J. Climate, 13, 2483–2501.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Xie, P., and P. A. Arkin, 1997: Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2539–2558.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Yokohata, T., and Coauthors, 2007: Different transient climate responses of two versions of an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L02707, doi:10.1029/2006GL027966.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Yoshikawa, C., M. Kawamiya, T. Kato, Y. Yamanaka, and T. Matsuno, 2008: Geographical distribution of the feedback between future climate change and the carbon cycle. J. Geophys. Res., 113, G03002, doi:10.1029/2007JG000570.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 397 171 55
PDF Downloads 99 22 0