Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Extreme Cold Winter Temperatures in Europe under the Influence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Blocking

Jana Sillmann Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

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Mischa Croci-Maspoli Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland

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Malaak Kallache Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE-IPSL), Gif-sur-Yvette, and Climpact, Paris, France

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Richard W. Katz National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

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Print Publication:
15 Nov 2011
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4075.1
Page(s):
5899–5913
Restricted access

Abstract

North Atlantic atmospheric blocking conditions explain part of the winter climate variability in Europe, being associated with anomalous cold winter temperatures. In this study, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is fitted to monthly minima of European winter 6-hourly minimum temperatures from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM global climate model simulations and the ECMWF reanalysis product known as ERA-40, with an indicator for atmospheric blocking conditions being used as covariate. It is demonstrated that relating the location and scale parameter of the GEV distribution to atmospheric blocking improves the fit to extreme minimum temperatures in large areas of Europe. The climate model simulations agree reasonably with ERA-40 in the present climate (1961–2000). Under the influence of atmospheric blocking, a decrease in the 0.95th quantiles of extreme minimum temperatures can be distinguished. This cooling effect of atmospheric blocking is, however, diminished in future climate simulations because of a shift in blocking location, and thus reduces the chances of very cold winters in northeastern parts of Europe.

Current affiliation: Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

Corresponding author address: Jana Sillmann, Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, University of Victoria, P.O. Box 3065 STN CSC, Victoria, BC V8W 3V6, Canada. E-mail: jana.sillmann@ec.gc.ca

Abstract

North Atlantic atmospheric blocking conditions explain part of the winter climate variability in Europe, being associated with anomalous cold winter temperatures. In this study, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is fitted to monthly minima of European winter 6-hourly minimum temperatures from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM global climate model simulations and the ECMWF reanalysis product known as ERA-40, with an indicator for atmospheric blocking conditions being used as covariate. It is demonstrated that relating the location and scale parameter of the GEV distribution to atmospheric blocking improves the fit to extreme minimum temperatures in large areas of Europe. The climate model simulations agree reasonably with ERA-40 in the present climate (1961–2000). Under the influence of atmospheric blocking, a decrease in the 0.95th quantiles of extreme minimum temperatures can be distinguished. This cooling effect of atmospheric blocking is, however, diminished in future climate simulations because of a shift in blocking location, and thus reduces the chances of very cold winters in northeastern parts of Europe.

Current affiliation: Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

Corresponding author address: Jana Sillmann, Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, University of Victoria, P.O. Box 3065 STN CSC, Victoria, BC V8W 3V6, Canada. E-mail: jana.sillmann@ec.gc.ca
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