Peaks-over-Threshold Study of Trends in Extreme Rainfall over the Iberian Peninsula

Francisco Javier Acero Departamento de Física, Universidad de Extremadura, Badajoz, Spain

Search for other papers by Francisco Javier Acero in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
José Agustín García Departamento de Física, Universidad de Extremadura, Badajoz, Spain

Search for other papers by José Agustín García in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
María Cruz Gallego Departamento de Física, Universidad de Extremadura, Badajoz, Spain

Search for other papers by María Cruz Gallego in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

We are aware of a technical issue preventing figures and tables from showing in some newly published articles in the full-text HTML view.
While we are resolving the problem, please use the online PDF version of these articles to view figures and tables.

Abstract

A peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach is used to study trends in extreme rainfall over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) at a daily scale. Records from 52 observatories regularly distributed over Iberia with no missing data were available for the common period from 1958 to 2004. The POT approach was used because it is particularly effective at extracting information concerning true extreme events. A generalized Pareto distribution fit was made to the data involving time-dependent parameters to account for possible temporal changes in the frequency distribution. These parameters were analyzed for trends in the return-level period, of importance for engineering purposes. A time-varying threshold was defined and an automatic declustering scheme was used to select independent extreme events exceeding the threshold. The results indicate a high variability of extreme events over the coastline of the IP, greater over the Mediterranean coast than over the Atlantic coast. The calculation of the trends for the 2-yr return level yielded a large proportion of negative trends for all three seasons considered: 58% for winter, 63% for spring, and 69% for autumn. The parametric approach also revealed an increase in the area with a positive trend of the 20-yr return level relative to the 2-yr return period, especially in autumn in the east of the IP.

Corresponding author address: F. J. Acero, Departamento de Física, Universidad de Extremadura, 06071 Badajoz, Spain. Email: fjacero@unex.es

Abstract

A peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach is used to study trends in extreme rainfall over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) at a daily scale. Records from 52 observatories regularly distributed over Iberia with no missing data were available for the common period from 1958 to 2004. The POT approach was used because it is particularly effective at extracting information concerning true extreme events. A generalized Pareto distribution fit was made to the data involving time-dependent parameters to account for possible temporal changes in the frequency distribution. These parameters were analyzed for trends in the return-level period, of importance for engineering purposes. A time-varying threshold was defined and an automatic declustering scheme was used to select independent extreme events exceeding the threshold. The results indicate a high variability of extreme events over the coastline of the IP, greater over the Mediterranean coast than over the Atlantic coast. The calculation of the trends for the 2-yr return level yielded a large proportion of negative trends for all three seasons considered: 58% for winter, 63% for spring, and 69% for autumn. The parametric approach also revealed an increase in the area with a positive trend of the 20-yr return level relative to the 2-yr return period, especially in autumn in the east of the IP.

Corresponding author address: F. J. Acero, Departamento de Física, Universidad de Extremadura, 06071 Badajoz, Spain. Email: fjacero@unex.es

Save
  • Barredo, J. I., A. de Roo, and C. Lavalle, 2007: Flood risk mapping at European scale. Water Sci. Technol., 56 , 1117.

  • Beguería, S., and S. M. Vicente-Serrano, 2006: Mapping the hazard of extreme rainfall by peaks over threshold extreme value analysis and spatial regresion techniques. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 45 , 108124.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Beguería, S., S. M. Vicente-Serrano, J. I. López-Moreno, and J. M. García-Ruiz, 2009: Annual and seasonal mapping of peak intensity, magnitude and duration of extreme precipitation events across a climatic gradient, northeast Spain. Int. J. Climatol., 29 , 17591779.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Caires, S., and X. L. Wang, 2006: Projection and analysis of extreme wave climate. J. Climate, 19 , 55815605.

  • Coelho, C. A. S., C. A. T. Ferro, D. B. Stephenson, and D. J. Steinskog, 2008: Methods for exploring spatial and temporal variability of extreme events in climate data. J. Climate, 21 , 20702092.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Coles, S., 2001: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values. Springer-Verlag, 208 pp.

  • Davison, A. C., and R. L. Smith, 1990: Models for exceedances over high thresholds. J. Roy. Stat. Soc., 52B , 393442.

  • Egozcue, J. J., and C. Ramis, 2001: Bayesian hazard analysis of heavy precipitation in eastern Spain. Int. J. Climatol., 21 , 12631279.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Embrechts, P., C. Kluppelberg, and T. Mikosh, 1997: Modelling Extremal Events. Springer-Verlag, 366 pp.

  • Esteban-Parra, M. J., F. S. Rodrigo, and Y. Castro-Díez, 1998: Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation in Spain for the period 1880–1992. Int. J. Climatol., 18 , 15571574.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ferro, C. A. T., and J. Segers, 2003: Inference for clusters of extreme values. J. Roy. Stat. Soc., 65B , 545556.

  • Gallego, M. C., J. A. García, J. M. Vaquero, and V. L. Mateos, 2006: Changes in frequency and intensity of daily precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula. J. Geophys. Res., 111 , D24105. doi:10.1029/2006JD007280.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • García, J. A., A. Serrano, and M. C. Gallego, 2002: A spectral analysis of Iberian Peninsula monthly rainfall. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 71 , 7795.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • García, J. A., M. C. Gallego, A. Serrano, and J. M. Vaquero, 2007: Trends in block-seasonal extreme rainfall over the Iberian Peninsula in the second half of the twentieth century. J. Climate, 20 , 113120.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • González-Hidalgo, J. C., M. Brunetti, and M. de Luis, 2010: A new tool for monthly precipitation analysis in Spain: MOPREDAS database (monthly precipitation trends December 1945–November 2005). Int. J. Climatol., 32 .doi:10.1002/joc.2115.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Goodess, C. M., and P. D. Jones, 2002: Links between circulation and changes in the characteristics of Iberian rainfall. Int. J. Climatol., 22 , 15931615.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hsing, T., 1987: On the characterization of certain point processes. Stochastic Processes Appl., 26 , 297316.

  • Katz, R. W., M. B. Parlange, and P. Naveau, 2002: Statistics of extremes in hydrology. Adv. Water Resour., 25 , 12871304.

  • Kharin, V. V., and F. W. Zwiers, 2000: Changes in extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM. J. Climate, 13 , 37603788.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kharin, V. V., and F. W. Zwiers, 2005: Estimating extremes in transient climate change simulations. J. Climate, 18 , 11561173.

  • Kharin, V. V., F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, and G. C. Hegerl, 2007: Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations. J. Climate, 20 , 14191444.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kiktev, D., D. M. H. Sexton, L. Alexander, and C. K. Folland, 2003: Comparison of modeled and observed trends in indices of daily climate extremes. J. Climate, 16 , 35603571.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lana, X., C. Serra, and A. Burgueño, 2003: Trends affecting pluviometric indices at the Fabra Observatory (Barcelona, NE Spain) from 1917 to 1999. Int. J. Climatol., 23 , 315332.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lana, X., M. D. Martínez, C. Serra, and A. Burgueño, 2004: Spatial and temporal variability of the daily rainfall regime in Catalonia (Northeastern Spain), 1950–2000. Int. J. Climatol., 24 , 613641.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Leadbetter, M. R., I. Weissman, L. De Haan, and H. Rootzen, 1989: On clustering of high values in statistically stationary series. Centre for Stochastic Processes. Department of Statistics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Tech. Rep. 253.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lettenmaier, D. P., E. F. Wood, and J. R. Wallis, 1994: Hydroclimatological trends in the continental United States, 1948–88. J. Climate, 7 , 586607.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Linés-Escardó, A., 1970: The climate of the Iberian Peninsula. Climates of the Northern and Western Europe, C. C. Wallen, Ed., Elsevier, 195–239.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Llasat, M. C., and M. Puigcerver, 1997: Total rainfall and convective rainfall in Catalonia, Spain. Int. J. Climatol., 17 , 16831695.

  • López, L., 1988: Grazalema (Cádiz): Un Claro Ejemplo de Precipitación Orográfica. Instituto Nacional de Meteorología, 60 pp.

  • López-Moreno, J. I., S. M. Vicente-Serrano, M. Angulo-Martínez, S. Beguería, and A. Kenawy, 2010: Trends in daily precipitation on the northeastern Iberian Peninsula, 1955–2006. Int. J. Climatol., 30 , 10261041.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Martín-Vide, J., 2004: Spatial distribution of a daily precipitation concentration index in Peninsular Spain. Int. J. Climatol., 24 , 959971.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mateos, V. L., J. A. García, A. Serrano, and M. C. Gallego, 2002: Transfer function modeling of the monthly accumulated rainfall series over the Iberian Peninsula. Atmósfera, 15 , 237256.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Naveau, P., M. Nogaj, C. Ammann, P. Yiou, D. Cooley, and V. Jomelli, 2005: Statistical methods for the analysis of climate extremes. C. R. Geosci., 337 , 10131022.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nogaj, M., P. Yiou, S. Parey, F. Malek, and P. Naveau, 2006: Amplitude and frequency of temperature extremes over the North Atlantic region. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33 , L10801. doi:10.1029/2005GL024251.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pachauri, R. K., and A. Reisinger, Eds. 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. IPCC, 104 pp.

  • Paredes, D., R. M. Trigo, R. García-Herrera, and I. Franco-Trigo, 2006: Understanding precipitation changes in Iberia in early spring: Weather typing and storm-tracking approaches. J. Hydrometeor., 7 , 101113.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • R Development Core Team 2006: R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. [Available online at http://www.R-project.org].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Re, M., and V. R. Barros, 2009: Extreme rainfalls in SE South America. Climatic Change, 96 , 119136.

  • Rodrigo, F. S., and R. M. Trigo, 2007: Trends in daily rainfall in the Iberian Peninsula from 1951 to 2002. Int. J. Climatol., 27 , 513529.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rodríguez-Puebla, C., A. H. Encinas, S. Nieto, and S. Alonso, 1998: A 30-year (1964–1994) daily rainfall data base for the Spanish Mediterranean regions. Int. J. Climatol., 18 , 541560.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Santos, J. A., J. Corte-Real, and S. M. Leite, 2005: Weather regimes and their connection to the winter rainfall in Portugal. Int. J. Climatol., 25 , 3350.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Serrano, A., J. A. García, V. L. Mateos, M. L. Cancillo, and J. Garrido, 1999a: Monthly modes of variation of precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula. J. Climate, 12 , 28942919.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Serrano, A., V. L. Mateos, and J. A. García, 1999b: Trend analysis of monthly precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula for the period 1921–1995. Phys. Chem. Earth, 24B , 8590.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Smith, R. L., 1999: Trends in rainfall extremes. University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 26 pp. [Available online at http://www.stat.unc.edu/postscript/rs/rx.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tomassini, L., and D. Jacob, 2009: Spatial analysis of trends in extreme precipitation events in high-resolution climate model results and observations for Germany. J. Geophys. Res., 114 , D12113. doi:10.1029/2008JD010652.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Trigo, R. M., and C. C. DaCamara, 2000: Circulation weather types and their impact on the precipitation regime in Portugal. Int. J. Climatol., 20 , 15591581.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Vitolo, R., P. M. Ruti, A. Dell’Aquila, M. Felici, V. Lucarini, and A. Speranza, 2009: Accessing extremes of mid-latitudinal wave activity: Methodology and application. Tellus, 61A , 3549.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, X. L., 2003: Detection of undocumented changepoints: A revision on the two-phase regression model. J. Climate, 16 , 33833385.

  • Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, 467 pp.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 2200 653 140
PDF Downloads 1653 389 36