The Different Impact of Positive-Neutral and Negative-Neutral ENSO Regimes on Australian Tropical Cyclones

Savin S. Chand Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

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Kevin J. Tory Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

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John L. McBride Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

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Matthew C. Wheeler Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

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Richard A. Dare Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

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Kevin J. E. Walsh School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia

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Abstract

The number of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Australian region exhibits a large variation between different ENSO regimes. While the difference in TC numbers and spatial distribution of genesis locations between the canonical El Niño and La Niña regimes is well known, the authors demonstrate that a statistically significant difference in TC numbers also exists between the recently identified negative-neutral and positive-neutral regimes. Compared to the negative-neutral and La Niña regimes, significantly fewer TCs form in the Australian region during the positive-neutral regime, particularly in the eastern subregion. This difference is attributed to concomitant changes in various large-scale environmental conditions such as sea level pressure, relative vorticity, vertical motion, and sea surface temperature.

Current affiliation: School of Science, Information Technology and Engineering, University of Ballarat, Ballarat, Victoria, Australia.

Corresponding author address: Savin S. Chand, School of Science, Information Technology and Engineering, University of Ballarat, P.O. Box 663, Ballarat, VIC 3353, Australia. E-mail: s.chand@ballart.edu.au

Abstract

The number of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Australian region exhibits a large variation between different ENSO regimes. While the difference in TC numbers and spatial distribution of genesis locations between the canonical El Niño and La Niña regimes is well known, the authors demonstrate that a statistically significant difference in TC numbers also exists between the recently identified negative-neutral and positive-neutral regimes. Compared to the negative-neutral and La Niña regimes, significantly fewer TCs form in the Australian region during the positive-neutral regime, particularly in the eastern subregion. This difference is attributed to concomitant changes in various large-scale environmental conditions such as sea level pressure, relative vorticity, vertical motion, and sea surface temperature.

Current affiliation: School of Science, Information Technology and Engineering, University of Ballarat, Ballarat, Victoria, Australia.

Corresponding author address: Savin S. Chand, School of Science, Information Technology and Engineering, University of Ballarat, P.O. Box 663, Ballarat, VIC 3353, Australia. E-mail: s.chand@ballart.edu.au
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