Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Does Knowing the Oceanic PDO Phase Help Predict the Atmospheric Anomalies in Subsequent Months?

Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, Maryland

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Hui Wang Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, Maryland, and Wyle Science, Technology, and Engineering Group, McLean, Virginia

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Wanqiu Wang Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, Maryland

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Yan Xue Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, Maryland

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Zeng-Zhen Hu Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, Maryland

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Print Publication:
15 Feb 2013
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00057.1
Page(s):
1268–1285
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Abstract

Based on analysis of a coupled model simulations with and without variability associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), it is demonstrated that knowing the current value of the ocean surface temperature–based index of the Pacific decadal oscillation (the OPDO index), and the corresponding atmospheric teleconnection pattern, does not add a predictive value for atmospheric anomalies in subsequent months. This is because although the OPDO index evolves on a slow time scale, it does not constrain the atmospheric variability in subsequent months, which retains its character of white noise stochastic variability and remains largely unpredictable. Further, the OPDO adds little to the atmospheric predictability originating from the tropical Pacific during ENSO years.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Arun Kumar, 5830 University Research Court, NCWCP, College Park, MD 20740. E-mail: arun.kumar@noaa.gov

Abstract

Based on analysis of a coupled model simulations with and without variability associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), it is demonstrated that knowing the current value of the ocean surface temperature–based index of the Pacific decadal oscillation (the OPDO index), and the corresponding atmospheric teleconnection pattern, does not add a predictive value for atmospheric anomalies in subsequent months. This is because although the OPDO index evolves on a slow time scale, it does not constrain the atmospheric variability in subsequent months, which retains its character of white noise stochastic variability and remains largely unpredictable. Further, the OPDO adds little to the atmospheric predictability originating from the tropical Pacific during ENSO years.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Arun Kumar, 5830 University Research Court, NCWCP, College Park, MD 20740. E-mail: arun.kumar@noaa.gov
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