Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Oceanic Forcing of Antarctic Climate Change: A Study Using a Stretched-Grid Atmospheric General Circulation Model

Gerhard Krinner LGGE (CNRS and Université de Grenoble Alpes), Grenoble, France

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Chloé Largeron LGGE (CNRS and Université de Grenoble Alpes), Grenoble, France

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Martin Ménégoz LGGE (CNRS and Université de Grenoble Alpes), Grenoble, France

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Cécile Agosta LGGE (CNRS and Université de Grenoble Alpes), Grenoble, France, and Department of Geography, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium

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Claire Brutel-Vuilmet LGGE (CNRS and Université de Grenoble Alpes), Grenoble, France

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Print Publication:
01 Aug 2014
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00367.1
Page(s):
5786–5800
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Abstract

A variable-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is used for climate change projections over the Antarctic. The present-day simulation uses prescribed observed sea surface conditions, while a set of five simulations for the end of the twenty-first century (2070–99) under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario uses sea surface condition anomalies from selected coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Analysis of the results shows that the prescribed sea surface condition anomalies have a very strong influence on the simulated climate change on the Antarctic continent, largely dominating the direct effect of the prescribed greenhouse gas concentration changes in the AGCM simulations. Complementary simulations with idealized forcings confirm these results. An analysis of circulation changes using self-organizing maps shows that the simulated climate change on regional scales is not principally caused by shifts of the frequencies of the dominant circulation patterns, except for precipitation changes in some coastal regions. The study illustrates that in some respects the use of bias-corrected sea surface boundary conditions in climate projections with a variable-resolution atmospheric general circulation model has some distinct advantages over the use of limited-area atmospheric circulation models directly forced by generally biased coupled climate model output.

Corresponding author address: Gerhard Krinner, LGGE/CNRS, 54 rue Molière, BP 96, 38402 Saint Martin d’Hères CEDEX, France. E-mail: krinner@lgge.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr

Abstract

A variable-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is used for climate change projections over the Antarctic. The present-day simulation uses prescribed observed sea surface conditions, while a set of five simulations for the end of the twenty-first century (2070–99) under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario uses sea surface condition anomalies from selected coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Analysis of the results shows that the prescribed sea surface condition anomalies have a very strong influence on the simulated climate change on the Antarctic continent, largely dominating the direct effect of the prescribed greenhouse gas concentration changes in the AGCM simulations. Complementary simulations with idealized forcings confirm these results. An analysis of circulation changes using self-organizing maps shows that the simulated climate change on regional scales is not principally caused by shifts of the frequencies of the dominant circulation patterns, except for precipitation changes in some coastal regions. The study illustrates that in some respects the use of bias-corrected sea surface boundary conditions in climate projections with a variable-resolution atmospheric general circulation model has some distinct advantages over the use of limited-area atmospheric circulation models directly forced by generally biased coupled climate model output.

Corresponding author address: Gerhard Krinner, LGGE/CNRS, 54 rue Molière, BP 96, 38402 Saint Martin d’Hères CEDEX, France. E-mail: krinner@lgge.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr
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