Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

The Value of High-Resolution Met Office Regional Climate Models in the Simulation of Multihourly Precipitation Extremes

Steven C. Chan School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom

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Elizabeth J. Kendon Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom

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Hayley J. Fowler School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom

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Stephen Blenkinsop School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom

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Nigel M. Roberts Met Office Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

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Christopher A. T. Ferro College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom

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Print Publication:
15 Aug 2014
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00723.1
Page(s):
6155–6174
Restricted access

Abstract

Extreme value theory is used as a diagnostic for two high-resolution (12-km parameterized convection and 1.5-km explicit convection) Met Office regional climate model (RCM) simulations. On subdaily time scales, the 12-km simulation has weaker June–August (JJA) short-return-period return levels than the 1.5-km RCM, yet the 12-km RCM has overly large high return levels. Comparisons with observations indicate that the 1.5-km RCM is more successful than the 12-km RCM in representing (multi)hourly JJA very extreme events. As accumulation periods increase toward daily time scales, the erroneous 12-km precipitation extremes become more comparable with the observations and the 1.5-km RCM. The 12-km RCM fails to capture the observed low sensitivity of the growth rate to accumulation period changes, which is successfully captured by the 1.5-km RCM. Both simulations have comparable December–February (DJF) extremes, but the DJF extremes are generally weaker than in JJA at daily or shorter time scales. Case studies indicate that “gridpoint storms” are one of the causes of unrealistic very extreme events in the 12-km RCM. Caution is needed in interpreting the realism of 12-km RCM JJA extremes, including short-return-period events, which have return values closer to observations. There is clear evidence that the 1.5-km RCM has a higher degree of realism than the 12-km RCM in the simulation of JJA extremes.

Denotes Open Access content.

Visiting scientist at the Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom.

Corresponding author address: Steven Chan, Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom. E-mail: steven.chan@metoffice.gov.uk

Abstract

Extreme value theory is used as a diagnostic for two high-resolution (12-km parameterized convection and 1.5-km explicit convection) Met Office regional climate model (RCM) simulations. On subdaily time scales, the 12-km simulation has weaker June–August (JJA) short-return-period return levels than the 1.5-km RCM, yet the 12-km RCM has overly large high return levels. Comparisons with observations indicate that the 1.5-km RCM is more successful than the 12-km RCM in representing (multi)hourly JJA very extreme events. As accumulation periods increase toward daily time scales, the erroneous 12-km precipitation extremes become more comparable with the observations and the 1.5-km RCM. The 12-km RCM fails to capture the observed low sensitivity of the growth rate to accumulation period changes, which is successfully captured by the 1.5-km RCM. Both simulations have comparable December–February (DJF) extremes, but the DJF extremes are generally weaker than in JJA at daily or shorter time scales. Case studies indicate that “gridpoint storms” are one of the causes of unrealistic very extreme events in the 12-km RCM. Caution is needed in interpreting the realism of 12-km RCM JJA extremes, including short-return-period events, which have return values closer to observations. There is clear evidence that the 1.5-km RCM has a higher degree of realism than the 12-km RCM in the simulation of JJA extremes.

Denotes Open Access content.

Visiting scientist at the Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom.

Corresponding author address: Steven Chan, Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom. E-mail: steven.chan@metoffice.gov.uk
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