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Process-Oriented Diagnosis of East Pacific Warm Pool Intraseasonal Variability

Eric D. Maloney Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado

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Xianan Jiang Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California

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Shang-Ping Xie Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California

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James J. Benedict Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California

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Print Publication:
15 Aug 2014
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00053.1
Page(s):
6305–6324
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Abstract

June–October east Pacific warm pool intraseasonal variability (ISV) is assessed in eight atmospheric general circulation simulations. Complex empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to document the leading mode of 30–90-day precipitation variability in the models and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission observations. The models exhibit a large spread in amplitude of the leading mode about the observed amplitude. Little relationship is demonstrated between the amplitude of the leading mode and the ability of models to simulate observed north-northeastward propagation.

Several process-oriented diagnostics are explored that attempt to distinguish why some models produce superior ISV. A diagnostic based on the difference in 500–850-hPa averaged relative humidity between the top 5% and the bottom 10% of precipitation events exhibits a significant correlation with leading mode amplitude. Diagnostics based on the vertically integrated moist entropy budget also demonstrate success at discriminating models with strong and weak variability. In particular, the vertical component of gross moist stability exhibits a correlation with amplitude of −0.9, suggesting that models in which convection and associated divergent circulations are less efficient at discharging moisture from the column are better able to sustain strong ISV.

Several other diagnostics are tested that show no significant relationship with leading mode amplitude, including the warm pool mean surface zonal wind, the strength of surface flux feedbacks, and 500–850-hPa averaged relative humidity for the top 1% of rainfall events. Vertical zonal wind shear and 850-hPa zonal wind do not appear to be good predictors of model success at simulating the observed northward propagation pattern.

Corresponding author address: Eric D. Maloney, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, 1371 Campus Delivery, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1371. E-mail: emaloney@atmos.colostate.edu

Abstract

June–October east Pacific warm pool intraseasonal variability (ISV) is assessed in eight atmospheric general circulation simulations. Complex empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to document the leading mode of 30–90-day precipitation variability in the models and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission observations. The models exhibit a large spread in amplitude of the leading mode about the observed amplitude. Little relationship is demonstrated between the amplitude of the leading mode and the ability of models to simulate observed north-northeastward propagation.

Several process-oriented diagnostics are explored that attempt to distinguish why some models produce superior ISV. A diagnostic based on the difference in 500–850-hPa averaged relative humidity between the top 5% and the bottom 10% of precipitation events exhibits a significant correlation with leading mode amplitude. Diagnostics based on the vertically integrated moist entropy budget also demonstrate success at discriminating models with strong and weak variability. In particular, the vertical component of gross moist stability exhibits a correlation with amplitude of −0.9, suggesting that models in which convection and associated divergent circulations are less efficient at discharging moisture from the column are better able to sustain strong ISV.

Several other diagnostics are tested that show no significant relationship with leading mode amplitude, including the warm pool mean surface zonal wind, the strength of surface flux feedbacks, and 500–850-hPa averaged relative humidity for the top 1% of rainfall events. Vertical zonal wind shear and 850-hPa zonal wind do not appear to be good predictors of model success at simulating the observed northward propagation pattern.

Corresponding author address: Eric D. Maloney, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, 1371 Campus Delivery, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1371. E-mail: emaloney@atmos.colostate.edu
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