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Uncertainties in CMIP5 Climate Projections due to Carbon Cycle Feedbacks

Pierre Friedlingstein * College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom

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Malte Meinshausen Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany, and School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

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Vivek K. Arora Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada

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Chris D. Jones Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom

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Alessandro Anav * College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom

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Spencer K. Liddicoat Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom

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Reto Knutti Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

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Print Publication:
15 Jan 2014
Collections:
C4MIP
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00579.1
Page(s):
511–526
Restricted access

Abstract

In the context of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, most climate simulations use prescribed atmospheric CO2 concentration and therefore do not interactively include the effect of carbon cycle feedbacks. However, the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario has additionally been run by earth system models with prescribed CO2 emissions. This paper analyzes the climate projections of 11 earth system models (ESMs) that performed both emission-driven and concentration-driven RCP8.5 simulations. When forced by RCP8.5 CO2 emissions, models simulate a large spread in atmospheric CO2; the simulated 2100 concentrations range between 795 and 1145 ppm. Seven out of the 11 ESMs simulate a larger CO2 (on average by 44 ppm, 985 ± 97 ppm by 2100) and hence higher radiative forcing (by 0.25 W m−2) when driven by CO2 emissions than for the concentration-driven scenarios (941 ppm). However, most of these models already overestimate the present-day CO2, with the present-day biases reasonably well correlated with future atmospheric concentrations’ departure from the prescribed concentration. The uncertainty in CO2 projections is mainly attributable to uncertainties in the response of the land carbon cycle. As a result of simulated higher CO2 concentrations than in the concentration-driven simulations, temperature projections are generally higher when ESMs are driven with CO2 emissions. Global surface temperature change by 2100 (relative to present day) increased by 3.9° ± 0.9°C for the emission-driven simulations compared to 3.7° ± 0.7°C in the concentration-driven simulations. Although the lower ends are comparable in both sets of simulations, the highest climate projections are significantly warmer in the emission-driven simulations because of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks.

Corresponding author address: Pierre Friedlingstein, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter EX4 4QF, United Kingdom. E-mail: p.friedlingstein@exeter.ac.uk

This article is included in the (C4MIP) Climate–Carbon Interactions in the CMIP5 Earth System Models special collection.

Abstract

In the context of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, most climate simulations use prescribed atmospheric CO2 concentration and therefore do not interactively include the effect of carbon cycle feedbacks. However, the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario has additionally been run by earth system models with prescribed CO2 emissions. This paper analyzes the climate projections of 11 earth system models (ESMs) that performed both emission-driven and concentration-driven RCP8.5 simulations. When forced by RCP8.5 CO2 emissions, models simulate a large spread in atmospheric CO2; the simulated 2100 concentrations range between 795 and 1145 ppm. Seven out of the 11 ESMs simulate a larger CO2 (on average by 44 ppm, 985 ± 97 ppm by 2100) and hence higher radiative forcing (by 0.25 W m−2) when driven by CO2 emissions than for the concentration-driven scenarios (941 ppm). However, most of these models already overestimate the present-day CO2, with the present-day biases reasonably well correlated with future atmospheric concentrations’ departure from the prescribed concentration. The uncertainty in CO2 projections is mainly attributable to uncertainties in the response of the land carbon cycle. As a result of simulated higher CO2 concentrations than in the concentration-driven simulations, temperature projections are generally higher when ESMs are driven with CO2 emissions. Global surface temperature change by 2100 (relative to present day) increased by 3.9° ± 0.9°C for the emission-driven simulations compared to 3.7° ± 0.7°C in the concentration-driven simulations. Although the lower ends are comparable in both sets of simulations, the highest climate projections are significantly warmer in the emission-driven simulations because of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks.

Corresponding author address: Pierre Friedlingstein, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter EX4 4QF, United Kingdom. E-mail: p.friedlingstein@exeter.ac.uk

This article is included in the (C4MIP) Climate–Carbon Interactions in the CMIP5 Earth System Models special collection.

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