Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

A Coupled Decadal Prediction of the Dynamic State of the Kuroshio Extension System

Bo Qiu Department of Oceanography, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

Search for other papers by Bo Qiu in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Shuiming Chen Department of Oceanography, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

Search for other papers by Shuiming Chen in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Niklas Schneider Department of Oceanography, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

Search for other papers by Niklas Schneider in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
, and
Bunmei Taguchi Earth Simulator Center, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan

Search for other papers by Bunmei Taguchi in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
15 Feb 2014
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00318.1
Page(s):
1751–1764
Restricted access

Abstract

Being the extension of a wind-driven western boundary current, the Kuroshio Extension (KE) has long been recognized as a turbulent current system rich in large-amplitude meanders and energetic pinched-off eddies. An important feature emerging from recent satellite altimeter measurements and eddy-resolving ocean model simulations is that the KE system exhibits well-defined decadal modulations between a stable and an unstable dynamic state. Here the authors show that the decadally modulating KE dynamic state can be effectively defined by the sea surface height (SSH) anomalies in the 31°–36°N, 140°–165°E region. By utilizing the SSH-based KE index from 1977 to 2012, they demonstrate that the time-varying KE dynamic state can be predicted at lead times of up to ~6 yr. This long-term predictability rests on two dynamic processes: 1) the oceanic adjustment is via baroclinic Rossby waves that carry interior wind-forced anomalies westward into the KE region and 2) the low-frequency KE variability influences the extratropical storm tracks and surface wind stress curl field across the North Pacific basin. By shifting poleward (equatorward) the storm tracks and the large-scale wind stress curl pattern during its stable (unstable) dynamic state, the KE variability induces a delayed negative feedback that can enhance the predictable SSH variance on the decadal time scales.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Bo Qiu, Department of Oceanography, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, 1000 Pope Road, Honolulu, HI 96822. E-mail: bo@soest.hawaii.edu

Abstract

Being the extension of a wind-driven western boundary current, the Kuroshio Extension (KE) has long been recognized as a turbulent current system rich in large-amplitude meanders and energetic pinched-off eddies. An important feature emerging from recent satellite altimeter measurements and eddy-resolving ocean model simulations is that the KE system exhibits well-defined decadal modulations between a stable and an unstable dynamic state. Here the authors show that the decadally modulating KE dynamic state can be effectively defined by the sea surface height (SSH) anomalies in the 31°–36°N, 140°–165°E region. By utilizing the SSH-based KE index from 1977 to 2012, they demonstrate that the time-varying KE dynamic state can be predicted at lead times of up to ~6 yr. This long-term predictability rests on two dynamic processes: 1) the oceanic adjustment is via baroclinic Rossby waves that carry interior wind-forced anomalies westward into the KE region and 2) the low-frequency KE variability influences the extratropical storm tracks and surface wind stress curl field across the North Pacific basin. By shifting poleward (equatorward) the storm tracks and the large-scale wind stress curl pattern during its stable (unstable) dynamic state, the KE variability induces a delayed negative feedback that can enhance the predictable SSH variance on the decadal time scales.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Bo Qiu, Department of Oceanography, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, 1000 Pope Road, Honolulu, HI 96822. E-mail: bo@soest.hawaii.edu
Save
Cover Journal of Climate
Journal of Climate

  • Alexander, M. A., I. Bladé, M. Newman, J. R. Lanzante, N.-C. Lau, and J. D. Scott, 2002: The atmospheric bridge: the influence of ENSO teleconnections on air–sea interaction over the global oceans. J. Climate, 15, 2205–2231.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Ceballos, L., E. Di Lorenzo, C. D. Hoyos, N. Schneider, and B. Taguchi, 2009: North Pacific Gyre Oscillation synchronizes climate variability in the eastern and western boundary current systems. J. Climate, 22, 5163–5174.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Deser, C., R. Thomas, and S. Peng, 2007: The transient atmospheric circulation response to North Atlantic SST and sea ice anomalies. J. Climate, 20, 4751–4767.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Ducet, N., P.-Y. Le Traon, and G. Reverdin, 2000: Global high-resolution mapping of ocean circulation from TOPEX/Poseidon and ERS-1 and -2. J. Geophys. Res., 105, 19 477–19 498.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Frankignoul, C., and N. Sennéchael, 2007: Observed influence of North Pacific SST anomalies on the atmospheric circulation. J. Climate, 20, 592–606.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Frankignoul, C., A. Czaja, and B. L’Heveder, 1998: Air–sea feedback in the North Atlantic and surface boundary conditions for ocean models. J. Climate, 11, 2310–2324.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Frankignoul, C., N. Sennéchael, Y.-O. Kwon, and M. A. Alexander, 2011: Influence of the meridional shifts of the Kuroshio and the Oyashio Extensions on the atmospheric circulation. J. Climate, 24, 762–777.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hoskins, B. J., and P. J. Valdes, 1990: On the existence of storm-tracks. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 1854–1864.

  • Joyce, T. M., Y.-O. Kwon, and L. Yu, 2009: On the relationship between synoptic wintertime atmospheric variability and path shifts in the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio Extension. J. Climate, 22, 3177–3192.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kelly, K. A., L. Thompson, W. Cheng, and E. J. Metzger, 2007: Evaluation of HYCOM in the Kuroshio Extension region using new metrics. J. Geophys. Res., 112, C01004, doi:10.1029/2006JC003614.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kelly, K. A., R. J. Small, R. M. Samelson, B. Qiu, T. M. Joyce, Y.-O. Kwon, and M. F. Cronin, 2010: Western boundary currents and frontal air–sea interaction: Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Extension. J. Climate, 23, 5644–5667.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kistler, R., and Coauthors, 2001: The NCEP–NCAR 50-Year Reanalysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 247–267.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kwon, Y.-O., and C. Deser, 2007: North Pacific decadal variability in the Community Climate System Model version 2. J. Climate, 20, 2416–2433.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kwon, Y.-O., and T. M. Joyce, 2013: Northern Hemisphere winter atmospheric transient eddy heat fluxes and the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension variability. J. Climate, 26, 9839–9859.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kwon, Y.-O., M. A. Alenxader, N. A. Bond, C. Frankignoul, H. Nakamura, B. Qiu, and L. Thompson, 2010: Role of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio–Oyashio systems in large-scale atmosphere–ocean interaction: A review. J. Climate, 23, 3249–3281.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Latif, M., and T. P. Barnett, 1994: Causes of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America. Science, 266, 634–637.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lorenz, E. N., 1973: On the existence of extended range predictability. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 543–546.

  • Mantua, N. J., S. R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis, 1997: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 1069–1079.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Miller, A. J., D. R. Cayan, and W. B. White, 1998: A westward-intensified decadal change in the North Pacific thermocline and gyre-scale circulation. J. Climate, 11, 3112–3127.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Miller, A. J., F. Chai, S. Chiba, J. R. Moisan, and D. J. Neilson, 2004: Decadal-scale climate and ecosystem interactions in the North Pacific Ocean. J. Oceanogr., 60, 163–188.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Minobe, S., A. Kuwano-Yoshida, N. Komori, S.-P. Xie, and R. J. Small, 2008: Influence of the Gulf Stream on the troposphere. Nature, 452, 206–209.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mizuno, K., and W. B. White, 1983: Annual and interannual variability in the Kuroshio Current system. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 13, 1847–1867.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Nakamura, H., T. Izumi, and T. Sampe, 2002: Interannual and decadal modulations recently observed in the Pacific storm track activity and East Asian winter monsoon. J. Climate, 15, 1855–1874.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Nakamura, H., T. Sampe, Y. Tanimoto, and A. Shimpo, 2004: Observed associations among storm tracks, jet streams and midlatitude oceanic fronts. Earth’s Climate: The Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, Geophys. Monogr., Vol. 147, Amer. Geophys. Union, 329–346.

  • Nishikawa, H., I. Yasuda, and S. Itoh, 2011: Impact of winter-to-spring environmental variability along the Kuroshio jet on the recruitment of Japanese sardine. Fish. Oceanogr., 20, 570–582.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Nonaka, M., H. Nakamura, Y. Tanimoto, T. Kagimoto, and H. Dasaki, 2006: Decadal variability in the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension simulated in an eddy-resolving OGCM. J. Climate, 19, 1970–1989.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Nonaka, M., H. Sasaki, B. Taguchi, and H. Nakamura, 2012: Potential predictability of interannual variability in the Kuroshio Extension jet speed in an eddy-resolving OGCM. J. Climate, 25, 3645–3652.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Noto, M., and I. Yasuda, 1999: Population decline of the Japanese sardine, Sardinops melanostictus, in relation to sea surface temperature in the Kuroshio Extension. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci., 56, 973–983.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Oka, E., B. Qiu, S. Kouketsu, K. Uehara, and T. Suga, 2012: Decadal seesaw of the central and subtropical mode water formation associated with the Kuroshio Extension variability. J. Oceanogr., 68, 355–360.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Pierce, D. W., T. P. Barnett, N. Schneider, R. Saravanan, D. Dommenget, and M. Latif, 2001: The role of ocean dynamics in producing decadal climate variability in the North Pacific. Climate Dyn., 18, 51–70.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Qiu, B., 2000: Interannual variability of the Kuroshio Extension and its impact on the wintertime SST field. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 30, 1486–1502.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Qiu, B., 2002: Large-scale variability in the midlatitude subtropical and subpolar North Pacific Ocean: Observations and causes. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 32, 353–375.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Qiu, B., 2003: Kuroshio Extension variability and forcing of the Pacific decadal oscillations: Responses and potential feedback. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 33, 2465–2482.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2005: Variability of the Kuroshio Extension jet, recirculation gyre, and mesoscale eddies on decadal time scales. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 35, 2090–2103.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2006: Decadal variability in the formation of the North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water: Oceanic versus atmospheric control. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 36, 1365–1380.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2010: Eddy-mean flow interaction in the decadally modulating Kuroshio Extension system. Deep-Sea Res. II, 57, 1098–1110.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2011: Effect of decadal Kuroshio Extension jet and eddy variability on the modification of North Pacific Intermediate Water. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 41, 503–515.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Qiu, B., N. Schneider, and S. Chen, 2007: Coupled decadal variability in the North Pacific: An observationally constrained idealized model. J. Climate, 20, 3602–3620.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Sasaki, H., M. Nonaka, Y. Masumoto, Y. Sasai, H. Uehara, and H. Sakuma, 2008: An eddy-resolving hindcast simulation of the quasi-global ocean from 1950 to 2003 on the Earth Simulator. High Resolution Numerical Modelling of the Atmosphere and Ocean, W. Ohfuchi and K. Hamilton, Eds., Springer, 157–185.

  • Sasaki, Y. N., S. Minobe, and N. Schneider, 2013: Decadal response of the Kuroshio Extension jet to Rossby waves: Observation and thin-jet theory. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 43, 442–456.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Schneider, N., and A. J. Miller, 2001: Predicting western North Pacific Ocean climate. J. Climate, 14, 3997–4002.

  • Schneider, N., A. J. Miller, and D. W. Pierce, 2002: Anatomy of North Pacific decadal variability. J. Climate, 15, 586–605.

  • Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, N. H. Naik, M. A. Cane, and J. Miller, 2001: Wind-driven shifts in the latitude of the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension and generation of SST anomalies on decadal timescales. J. Climate, 14, 4249–4265.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Taguchi, B., S.-P. Xie, N. Schneider, M. Nonaka, H. Sasaki, and Y. Sasai, 2007: Decadal variability of the Kuroshio Extension: Observations and an eddy-resolving model hindcast. J. Climate, 20, 2357–2377.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Taguchi, B., H. Nakamura, M. Nonaka, and S. P. Xie, 2009: Influences of the Kuroshio/Oyashio Extensions on air–sea heat exchanges and storm-track activity as revealed in regional atmospheric model simulations for the 2003/04 cold season. J. Climate, 22, 6536–6560.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Taguchi, B., B. Qiu, M. Nonaka, H. Sasaki, S.-P. Xie, and N. Schneider, 2010: Decadal variability of the Kuroshio Extension: Mesoscale eddies and recirculation. Ocean Dyn., 60, 673–691.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Taguchi, B., H. Nakamura, M. Nonaka, N. Komori, A. Kuwano-Yoshida, K. Takaya, and A. Goto, 2012: Seasonal evolutions of atmospheric response to decadal SST anomalies in the North Pacific subarctic frontal zone: Observations and a coupled model simulation. J. Climate, 25, 111–139.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Teague, W. J., M. J. Carron, and P. J. Hogan, 1990: A comparison between the Generalized Digital Environmental Model and Levitus climatologies. J. Geophys. Res., 95, 7167–7183.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Tokinaga, H., Y. Tanimoto, S.-P. Xie, T. Sampe, H. Tomita, and H. Ichikawa, 2009: Ocean frontal effects on the vertical development on clouds over the western North Pacific: In situ and satellite observations. J. Climate, 22, 4241–4260.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Trenberth, K. E., and J. W. Hurrell, 1994: Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific. Climate Dyn., 9, 303–319.

  • Vivier, F., K. A. Kelly, and L. A. Thompson, 2002: Heat budget in the Kuroshio Extension region: 1993–99. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 32, 3436–3454.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Wu, L., Z. Liu, R. Jacob, D. Lee, and Y. Zhong, 2003: Pacific decadal variability: The tropical Pacific mode and the North Pacific mode. J. Climate, 16, 1101–1120.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Yu, L., and R. A. Weller, 2007: Objectively analyzed air–sea heat fluxes for the global ice-free oceans (1981–2005). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 527–539.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 2899 1265 111
PDF Downloads 2099 569 79