Editorial Type:
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Article Type:
Research Article

Tropical Biases in CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble: The Excessive Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue and Double ITCZ Problems

Gen Li State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China, and International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, and Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California

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Shang-Ping Xie Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, and International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, Shandong, China

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Print Publication:
15 Feb 2014
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00337.1
Page(s):
1765–1780
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Abstract

Errors of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) limit their utility for climate prediction and projection. Origins of and feedback for tropical biases are investigated in the historical climate simulations of 18 CGCMs from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), together with the available Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. Based on an intermodel empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of tropical Pacific precipitation, the excessive equatorial Pacific cold tongue and double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) stand out as the most prominent errors of the current generation of CGCMs. The comparison of CMIP–AMIP pairs enables us to identify whether a given type of errors originates from atmospheric models. The equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias is associated with deficient precipitation and surface easterly wind biases in the western half of the basin in CGCMs, but these errors are absent in atmosphere-only models, indicating that the errors arise from the interaction with the ocean via Bjerknes feedback. For the double ITCZ problem, excessive precipitation south of the equator correlates well with excessive downward solar radiation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitudes, an error traced back to atmospheric model simulations of cloud during austral spring and summer. This extratropical forcing of the ITCZ displacements is mediated by tropical ocean–atmosphere interaction and is consistent with recent studies of ocean–atmospheric energy transport balance.

International Pacific Research Center Publication Number 1036 and School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology Publication Number 9060.

Corresponding author address: Gen Li, State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, 164 West Xingang Road, Guangzhou 510301, China. E-mail: ligen@scsio.ac.cn

Abstract

Errors of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) limit their utility for climate prediction and projection. Origins of and feedback for tropical biases are investigated in the historical climate simulations of 18 CGCMs from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), together with the available Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. Based on an intermodel empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of tropical Pacific precipitation, the excessive equatorial Pacific cold tongue and double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) stand out as the most prominent errors of the current generation of CGCMs. The comparison of CMIP–AMIP pairs enables us to identify whether a given type of errors originates from atmospheric models. The equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias is associated with deficient precipitation and surface easterly wind biases in the western half of the basin in CGCMs, but these errors are absent in atmosphere-only models, indicating that the errors arise from the interaction with the ocean via Bjerknes feedback. For the double ITCZ problem, excessive precipitation south of the equator correlates well with excessive downward solar radiation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitudes, an error traced back to atmospheric model simulations of cloud during austral spring and summer. This extratropical forcing of the ITCZ displacements is mediated by tropical ocean–atmosphere interaction and is consistent with recent studies of ocean–atmospheric energy transport balance.

International Pacific Research Center Publication Number 1036 and School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology Publication Number 9060.

Corresponding author address: Gen Li, State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, 164 West Xingang Road, Guangzhou 510301, China. E-mail: ligen@scsio.ac.cn
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