Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Century-Scale Intensity Modulation of Large-Scale Variability in Long Historical Temperature Records

Naiming Yuan Laboratory for Climate and Ocean–Atmospheric Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, School of Physics, Peking University, and Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing, China

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Zuntao Fu Laboratory for Climate and Ocean–Atmospheric Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China

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Print Publication:
15 Feb 2014
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00349.1
Page(s):
1742–1750
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Abstract

Large-scale variability in long historical temperature records around the North Atlantic Ocean is analyzed by means of power spectral density (PSD) analysis and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). It is found that the intensity of large-scale variability is changeable with time, and long memory analysis can be used to detect this possible intensity variation quantitatively. By estimating long-term memory (LTM) in subrecords of different time intervals, a century-scale variation of LTM is revealed, which further indicates a century-scale intensity modulation of the large-scale temperature variability. At the beginning of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, the large-scale variability is more apparent, whereas in the second half of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries the large-scale variability becomes less significant. Considering the importance of large-scale variability, the findings herein suggest a new perspective on the understanding of climatic change.

Corresponding author address: Zuntao Fu, Laboratory for Climate and Ocean–Atmosphere Studies, Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China. E-mail: fuzt@pku.edu.cn

Abstract

Large-scale variability in long historical temperature records around the North Atlantic Ocean is analyzed by means of power spectral density (PSD) analysis and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). It is found that the intensity of large-scale variability is changeable with time, and long memory analysis can be used to detect this possible intensity variation quantitatively. By estimating long-term memory (LTM) in subrecords of different time intervals, a century-scale variation of LTM is revealed, which further indicates a century-scale intensity modulation of the large-scale temperature variability. At the beginning of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, the large-scale variability is more apparent, whereas in the second half of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries the large-scale variability becomes less significant. Considering the importance of large-scale variability, the findings herein suggest a new perspective on the understanding of climatic change.

Corresponding author address: Zuntao Fu, Laboratory for Climate and Ocean–Atmosphere Studies, Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China. E-mail: fuzt@pku.edu.cn
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