Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Modeling Obliquity and CO2 Effects on Southern Hemisphere Climate during the Past 408 ka

Axel Timmermann IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

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Tobias Friedrich IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

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Oliver Elison Timm IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

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Megumi O. Chikamoto IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

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Ayako Abe-Ouchi Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa Chiba, and RIGC/JAMSTEC, Yokohama Institute for Earth Sciences, Yokohama, Japan

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Andrey Ganopolski Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

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Print Publication:
01 Mar 2014
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00311.1
Page(s):
1863–1875
Restricted access

Abstract

The effect of obliquity and CO2 changes on Southern Hemispheric climate is studied with a series of numerical modeling experiments. Using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity Loch–VECODE–ECBilt–CLIO–Agism Model (LOVECLIM) and a coupled general circulation model [Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC)], it is shown in time-slice simulations that phases of low obliquity enhance the meridional extratropical temperature gradient, increase the atmospheric baroclinicity, and intensify the lower and middle troposphere Southern Hemisphere westerlies and storm tracks. Furthermore, a transient model simulation is conducted with LOVECLIM that covers the greenhouse gas, ice sheet, and orbital forcing history of the past 408 ka. This simulation reproduces reconstructed glacial–interglacial variations in temperature and sea ice qualitatively well and shows that the meridional heat transport associated with the orbitally paced modulation of middle troposphere westerlies and storm tracks partly offsets the effects of the direct shortwave obliquity forcing over Antarctica, thereby reinforcing the high correlation between CO2 radiative forcing and Antarctic temperature. The overall timing of temperature changes in Antarctica is hence determined by a balance of shortwave obliquity forcing, atmospheric heat transport changes, and greenhouse gas forcing. A shorter 130-ka transient model experiment with constant CO2 concentrations further demonstrates that surface Southern Hemisphere westerlies are primarily modulated by the obliquity cycle rather than by the CO2 radiative forcing.

Denotes Open Access content.

International Pacific Research Center Publication Number 1025 and School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology Contribution Number 9037.

Corresponding author address: Axel Timmermann, IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, 2525 Correa Road, Honolulu, HI 96822. E-mail: axel@hawaii.edu

Abstract

The effect of obliquity and CO2 changes on Southern Hemispheric climate is studied with a series of numerical modeling experiments. Using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity Loch–VECODE–ECBilt–CLIO–Agism Model (LOVECLIM) and a coupled general circulation model [Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC)], it is shown in time-slice simulations that phases of low obliquity enhance the meridional extratropical temperature gradient, increase the atmospheric baroclinicity, and intensify the lower and middle troposphere Southern Hemisphere westerlies and storm tracks. Furthermore, a transient model simulation is conducted with LOVECLIM that covers the greenhouse gas, ice sheet, and orbital forcing history of the past 408 ka. This simulation reproduces reconstructed glacial–interglacial variations in temperature and sea ice qualitatively well and shows that the meridional heat transport associated with the orbitally paced modulation of middle troposphere westerlies and storm tracks partly offsets the effects of the direct shortwave obliquity forcing over Antarctica, thereby reinforcing the high correlation between CO2 radiative forcing and Antarctic temperature. The overall timing of temperature changes in Antarctica is hence determined by a balance of shortwave obliquity forcing, atmospheric heat transport changes, and greenhouse gas forcing. A shorter 130-ka transient model experiment with constant CO2 concentrations further demonstrates that surface Southern Hemisphere westerlies are primarily modulated by the obliquity cycle rather than by the CO2 radiative forcing.

Denotes Open Access content.

International Pacific Research Center Publication Number 1025 and School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology Contribution Number 9037.

Corresponding author address: Axel Timmermann, IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, 2525 Correa Road, Honolulu, HI 96822. E-mail: axel@hawaii.edu
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