Changes in Moisture Flux over the Tibetan Plateau during 1979–2011 and Possible Mechanisms

Yanhong Gao Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China

Search for other papers by Yanhong Gao in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Lan Cuo Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environmental Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Search for other papers by Lan Cuo in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
Yongxin Zhang Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by Yongxin Zhang in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

Changes in moisture as represented by PE (precipitation − evapotranspiration) and the possible causes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during 1979–2011 are examined based on the Global Land Data Assimilation Systems (GLDAS) ensemble mean runoff and reanalyses. It is found that the TP is getting wetter as a whole but with large spatial variations. The climatologically humid southeastern TP is getting drier while the vast arid and semiarid northwestern TP is getting wetter. The Clausius–Clapeyron relation cannot be used to explain the changes in PE over the TP.

Through decomposing the changes in PE into three major components—dynamic, thermodynamic, and transient eddy components—it is noted that the dynamic component plays a key role in the changes of PE over the TP. The thermodynamic component contributes positively over the southern and central TP whereas the transient eddy component tends to reinforce (offset) the dynamic component over the southern and parts of the northern TP (central TP).

Seasonally, the dynamic component contributes substantially to changes in PE during the wet season, with small contributions from the thermodynamic and transient eddy components. Further analyses reveal the poleward shift of the East Asian westerly jet stream by 0.7° and poleward moisture transport as well as the intensification of the summer monsoon circulation due to global warming, which are shown to be responsible for the general wetting trend over the TP. It is further demonstrated that changes in local circulations that occur due to the differential heating of the TP and its surroundings are responsible for the spatially varying changes in moisture over the TP.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Yanhong Gao, 320 Donggang West Rd., Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China. E-mail: gaoyh@lzb.ac.cn

Abstract

Changes in moisture as represented by PE (precipitation − evapotranspiration) and the possible causes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during 1979–2011 are examined based on the Global Land Data Assimilation Systems (GLDAS) ensemble mean runoff and reanalyses. It is found that the TP is getting wetter as a whole but with large spatial variations. The climatologically humid southeastern TP is getting drier while the vast arid and semiarid northwestern TP is getting wetter. The Clausius–Clapeyron relation cannot be used to explain the changes in PE over the TP.

Through decomposing the changes in PE into three major components—dynamic, thermodynamic, and transient eddy components—it is noted that the dynamic component plays a key role in the changes of PE over the TP. The thermodynamic component contributes positively over the southern and central TP whereas the transient eddy component tends to reinforce (offset) the dynamic component over the southern and parts of the northern TP (central TP).

Seasonally, the dynamic component contributes substantially to changes in PE during the wet season, with small contributions from the thermodynamic and transient eddy components. Further analyses reveal the poleward shift of the East Asian westerly jet stream by 0.7° and poleward moisture transport as well as the intensification of the summer monsoon circulation due to global warming, which are shown to be responsible for the general wetting trend over the TP. It is further demonstrated that changes in local circulations that occur due to the differential heating of the TP and its surroundings are responsible for the spatially varying changes in moisture over the TP.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Yanhong Gao, 320 Donggang West Rd., Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China. E-mail: gaoyh@lzb.ac.cn
Save
  • Bao, X., and F. Zhang, 2013: Evaluation of NCEP–CFSR, NCEP–NCAR, ERA-Interim, and ERA-40 reanalysis datasets against independent sounding observations over the Tibetan Plateau. J. Climate, 26, 206214.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bian, D., Z. Yang, L. Li, D. Chu, G. Zhuo, C. Bianba, Y. Zhaxi, and Y. Dong, 2006: The response of lake area change to climate variations in the North Tibetan Plateau during the last 30 years (in Chinese). Acta Geogr. Sin., 61, 510518.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chou, C., and C.-W. Lan, 2012: Changes in the annual range of precipitation under global warming. J. Climate, 25, 222235.

  • Chou, C., J. D. Neelin, C.-A. Chen, and J.-Y. Tu, 2009: Evaluating the “rich-get-richer” mechanism in tropical precipitation change under global warming. J. Climate, 22, 19822005.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chou, C., J. C. H. Chiang, C.-W. Lan, C.-H. Chung, Y.-C. Liao, and C.-J. Lee, 2013: Increase in the range between wet and dry season precipitation. Nat. Geosci., 6, 263267, doi:10.1038/ngeo1744.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Conroy, J. L., and J. T. Overpeck, 2011: Regionalization of present-day precipitation in the greater monsoon region of Asia. J. Climate, 24, 40734095.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cuo, L., Y. Zhang, Q. Wang, L. Zhang, B. Zhou, Z. Hao, and F. Su, 2013: Climate change on the northern Tibetan Plateau during 1957–2009: Spatial patterns and possible mechanisms. J. Climate,26, 85–109.

  • Dee, D. P., and S. Uppala, 2009: Variational bias correction of satellite radiance data in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 18301841.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dee, D. P., and et al., 2011: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553597, doi:10.1002/qj.828.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Derber, J. C., D. F. Parrish, and S. J. Lord, 1991: The new global operational analysis system at the National Meteorological Center. Wea. Forecasting, 6, 538547.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Duan, A., and G. Wu, 2008: Weakening trend in the atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades. Part I: Observations. J. Climate, 21, 31493164.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Duan, A., and G. Wu, 2009: Weakening trend in the atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades. Part II: Connection with climate warming. J. Climate, 22, 41974212.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fu, Q., C. M. Johanson, J. M. Wallace, and T. Reichler, 2006: Enhanced mid-latitude tropospheric warming in satellite measurements. Science, 312, 1179.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gao, Y., J. Vano, C. Zhu, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2011: Evaluating climate change over the Colorado River basin using regional climate models. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D13104, doi:10.1029/2010JD015278.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gao, Y., L. R. Leung, E. P. Salathé Jr., F. Dominguez, B. Nijssen, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2012: Moisture flux convergence in regional and global climate models: Implications for droughts in the southwestern United States under climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09711, doi:10.1029/2012GL051560.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ge, S., X. Tang, and H. Lu, 2008: Climatic characteristics of rainfall and rainy days during the last 35 years over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Acta Geogr. Sin., 63, 924930.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Guo, Q., Y. Yang, and X. Lu, 2011: Analysis of variation character of annual runoff in the Heihe River basin from 1957 to 2008 (in Chinese). J. Water Res. Water Eng., 22, 7781.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Held, M. I., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate,19, 5686–5699.

  • Holton, J. R., 1992: An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology. Academic Press, 511 pp.

  • Huffman, G. J., R. F. Adler, E. F. Stocker, D. T. Bolvin, and E. J. Nelkin, 2003: Analysis of TRMM 3-hourly multi-satellite precipitation estimates computed in both real and post-real time. Preprints, 12th Conf. on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P4.11. [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/54906.pdf.]

  • Idso, S., 1981: A set of equations for full spectrum and 8- and 14-μm and 10.5- to 12.5-µm thermal radiation from cloudless skies. Water Resour. Res., 17, 295304.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kalnay, E., and et al., 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437471.

  • Kanamitsu, M., W. Ebisuzaki, J. Woollen, S. Yang, J. J. Hnilo, M. Fiorino, and G. L. Potter, 2002: NCEP–DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 16311643.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kang, S. C., Y. Xu, Q. You, W.-A. Flügel, N. Pepin, and T. Yao, 2010: Review of climate and cryospheric change in the Tibetan Plateau. Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 015101, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/015101.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kang, S. M., and J. Lu, 2012: Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming: Winter versus summer. J. Climate, 25, 83878393.

  • Kassomenos, P. A., and G. R. McGregor, 2006: The interannual variability and trend of precipitable water over southern Greece. J. Hydrometeor., 7, 271284.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Krause, P., S. Biskop, J. Helmschrot, W.-A. Flügel, S. Kang, and T. Gao, 2010: Hydrological system analysis and modelling of the Nam Co basin in Tibet. Adv. Geosci., 27, 2936, doi:10.5194/adgeo-27-29-2010.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Li, R., S. Lu, B. Han, and Y. Gao, 2012: Preliminary comparison and analyses of air temperature at 2-m height between three reanalysis datasets and observation in the east of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (in Chinese). Plateau Meteor., 31, 14881502.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liu, X., and B. Chen, 2000: Climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades. Int. J. Climatol., 20, 17291742.

  • Lorenz, D. J., and E. T. DeWeaver, 2007: The response of the extratropical hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate, 20, 34703484.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lu, J., G. A. Vecchi, and T. Reichler, 2007: Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06805, doi:10.1029/2006GL028443.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Manabe, S., and A. J. Broccoli, 1990: Mountains and arid climate of middle latitudes. Science, 247, 192195.

  • Moore, G. W. K., 2012: Surface pressure record of Tibetan Plateau warming since the 1870s. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 19992008.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pan, B., and J. Li, 1996: Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: A driver and amplifier of the global climatic change. J. Lanzhou Univ., 32, 108115.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rodell, M., and et al., 2004: The Global Land Data Assimilation System. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 381394.

  • Schiemann, R., D. Lüthi, and C. Schär, 2008: Seasonality and interannual variability of the westerly jet in the Tibetan Plateau region. J. Climate, 22, 29402957.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Seager, R., and G. A. Vecchi, 2010: Greenhouse warming and the 21st century hydroclimate of southwestern North America. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 21 27721 282, doi:10.1073/pnas.0910856107.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Seager, R., and N. Naik, 2012: A mechanism-based approach to detecting recent anthropogenic hydroclimate change. J. Climate, 25, 236261.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Seager, R., and et al., 2007: Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America. Science, 316, 11811184, doi:10.1126/science.1139601.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Seager, R., N. Naik, and G. A. Vecchi, 2010: Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J. Climate, 23, 46514668.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shapiro, R., 1987: A simple model for the calculation of the flux of direct and diffuse solar radiation through the atmosphere. Air Force Geophysics Laboratory Tech. Rep. AFGL-TR-87-0200, 40 pp.

  • Shi, Y., Y. Shen, E. Kang, D. Li, Y. Ding, G. Zhang, and R. Hu, 2007: Recent and future climate change in northwest China. Climatic Change, 80, 379393.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Simmons, A., S. Uppala, D. Dee, and S. Kobayashi, 2006: ERA-Interim: New ECMWF reanalysis products from 1989 onwards. ECMWF Newsletter, No. 110, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, 25–35.

  • Sohn, B. J., and S.-C. Park, 2010: Strengthened tropical circulations in past three decades inferred from water vapor transport. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D15112, doi:10.1029/2009JD013713.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. Averyt, M. M. B. Tignor, and H. L. Miller Jr., 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, 996 pp.

  • Tandon, N. F., E. P. Gerber, A. H. Sobel, and L. M. Polvani, 2013: Understanding Hadley cell expansion versus contraction: Insights from simplified models and implications for recent observations. J. Climate, 26, 43044321.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tian, L., T. Yao, K. MacClune, J. W. C. White, A. Schilla, B. Vaughn, R. Vachon, and K. Ichiyanagi, 2007: Stable isotopic variations in west China: A consideration of moisture sources. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D10112, doi:10.1029/2006JD007718.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Trenberth, K. E., and C. J. Guillemot, 1995: Evaluation of the global atmospheric moisture budget as seen from analyses. J. Climate, 8, 22552272.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Turk, F. J., G. Rohaly, J. D. Hawkins, E. A. Smith, A. Grose, F. S. Marzano, A. Mugnai, and V. Levizzani, 2000: Analysis and assimilation of rainfall from blended SSM/I, TRMM, and geostationary satellite data. Preprints, 10th Conf. on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 6669.

  • Uppala, S. M., and et al., 2005: The ERA-40 Re-Analysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 29613012, doi:10.1256/qj.04.176.

  • Wang, A., and X. Zeng, 2012: Evaluation of multi-reanalysis products with in situ observations over the Tibetan Plateau. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D05102, doi:10.1029/2011JD016553.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, B., J. Liu, H. Kime, P. J. Webster, S. Yim, and B. Xiang, 2013: Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon intensified by mega-El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 53475352.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wentz, F. J., L. Ricciardulli, K. Hilburn, and C. Mears, 2007: How much more rain will global warming bring? Science, 317,233235, doi:10.1126/science.1140746.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, S., Y. Yin, D. Zheng, and Q. Yang, 2007: Climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau during 1971–2000. J. Geogr. Sci., 17, 141151, doi:10.1007/s11442-007-0141-7.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, Y., and L. Zhu, 2008: The response of lake-glacier variations to climate change in Nam Co Catchment, central Tibetan Plateau, during 1970–2000. J. Geogr. Sci., 18, 177189, doi:10.1007/s11442-008-0177-3.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yanai, M., C. Li, and Z. Song, 1992: Seasonal heating of the Tibetan Plateau and its effects on the evolution of the Asian summer monsoon. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 70, 319351.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yang, K., B. Ye, D. Zhou, B. Wu, T. Foken, J. Qin, and Z. Zhou, 2011: Response of hydrological cycle to recent climate changes in the Tibetan Plateau. Climatic Change, 109, 517–534, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0099-4.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yao, T. L., and et al., 2012: Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings. Nat. Climate Change, 2, 663667, doi:10.1038/nclimate1580.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yin, J. H., 2005: A consistent polarward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18701, doi:10.1029/2005GL023684.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yin, Y., S. Wu, D. Zhao, D. Zheng, and T. Pan, 2012: Impact of climate change on actual evapotranspiration on the Tibetan Plateau during 1981–2010 (in Chinese). Acta Geogr. Sin., 67, 14711481.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • You, Q., S. Kang, E. Aguilar, and Y. Yan, 2008: Changes in daily climate extremes in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2005. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D07101, doi:10.1029/2007JD009389.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, X., J. He, J. Zhang, I. Polyakov, R. Gerdes, J. Inoue, and P. Wu, 2012: Enhanced polarward moisture transport and amplified northern high-latitude wetting trend. Nat. Climate Change, 3, 4751, doi:10.1038/nclimate1631.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhu, L., M. Xie, and Y. Wu, 2010: Quantitative analysis of land area variations and the influence factors from 1971 to 2004 in the Nam Co basin of the Southern Tibet Plateau. Chin. Sci. Bull.,55, 1294–1303, doi:10.1007/s11434-010-0015-8.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 3102 1154 77
PDF Downloads 1880 336 32