Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Mechanisms of Asian Summer Monsoon Changes in Response to Anthropogenic Forcing in CMIP5 Models

Xiaoqiong Li Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York

Search for other papers by Xiaoqiong Li in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Mingfang Ting Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York

Search for other papers by Mingfang Ting in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Cuihua Li Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York

Search for other papers by Cuihua Li in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
, and
Naomi Henderson Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York

Search for other papers by Naomi Henderson in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
15 May 2015
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00559.1
Page(s):
4107–4125
Restricted access

Abstract

Changes of the Asian summer monsoon in response to anthropogenic forcing are examined using observations and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel, multirealization ensemble. In the twentieth century, CMIP5 models indicate a predominantly drying Asian monsoon, while in the twenty-first century under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, monsoon rainfall enhances across the entire Asian domain. The thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms causing the changes are evaluated using specific humidity and winds, as well as the moisture budget. The drying trend in the CMIP5 historical simulations and the wetting trend in the RCP8.5 projections can be explained by the relative importance of dynamic and thermodynamic contributions to the total mean moisture convergence. While the thermodynamic mechanism dominates in the future, the historical rainfall changes are dominated by the changes in circulation. The relative contributions of aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the historical monsoon change are further examined using CMIP5 single-forcing simulations. Rainfall reduces under aerosol forcing and increases under GHG forcing. Aerosol forcing dominates over the greenhouse effect during the historical period, leading to the general drying trend in the all-forcing simulations. While the thermodynamic change of mean moisture convergence in the all-forcing case is dominated by the GHG forcing, the dynamic change of mean moisture convergence in the all-forcing case is dominated by the aerosol forcing.

Corresponding author address: Xiaoqiong Li, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, 61 Route 9W, Palisades, NY 10964. E-mail: xqli@ldeo.columbia.edu

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Contribution Number 7881.

Abstract

Changes of the Asian summer monsoon in response to anthropogenic forcing are examined using observations and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel, multirealization ensemble. In the twentieth century, CMIP5 models indicate a predominantly drying Asian monsoon, while in the twenty-first century under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, monsoon rainfall enhances across the entire Asian domain. The thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms causing the changes are evaluated using specific humidity and winds, as well as the moisture budget. The drying trend in the CMIP5 historical simulations and the wetting trend in the RCP8.5 projections can be explained by the relative importance of dynamic and thermodynamic contributions to the total mean moisture convergence. While the thermodynamic mechanism dominates in the future, the historical rainfall changes are dominated by the changes in circulation. The relative contributions of aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the historical monsoon change are further examined using CMIP5 single-forcing simulations. Rainfall reduces under aerosol forcing and increases under GHG forcing. Aerosol forcing dominates over the greenhouse effect during the historical period, leading to the general drying trend in the all-forcing simulations. While the thermodynamic change of mean moisture convergence in the all-forcing case is dominated by the GHG forcing, the dynamic change of mean moisture convergence in the all-forcing case is dominated by the aerosol forcing.

Corresponding author address: Xiaoqiong Li, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, 61 Route 9W, Palisades, NY 10964. E-mail: xqli@ldeo.columbia.edu

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Contribution Number 7881.

Save
Cover Journal of Climate
Journal of Climate

  • Allen, M. R., and L. A. Smith, 1997: Optimal filtering in singular spectrum analysis. Phys. Lett., 234, 419–428, doi:10.1016/S0375-9601(97)00559-8.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Annamalai, H., J. Hafner, K. P. Soorai, and P. Pillai, 2013: Global warming shifts the monsoon circulation, drying South Asia. J. Climate, 26, 2701–2718, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00208.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bollasina, M. A., Y. Ming, and V. Ramaswamy, 2011: Anthropogenic aerosols and the weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Science, 334, 502–505, doi:10.1126/science.1204994.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chadwick, R., I. Boutle, and G. Martin, 2013: Spatial patterns of precipitation change in CMIP5: Why the rich do not get richer in the tropics. J. Climate, 26, 3803–3822, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00543.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chang, P., R. Saravanan, L. Ji, and G. C. Hegerl, 2000: The effect of local sea surface temperatures on atmospheric circulation over the tropical Atlantic sector. J. Climate, 13, 2195–2216, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2195:TEOLSS>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chou, C., J. D. Neelin, C.-A. Chen, and J.-Y. Tu, 2009: Evaluating the “rich-get-richer” mechanism in tropical precipitation change under global warming. J. Climate, 22, 1982–2005, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2471.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Christensen, J., and Coauthors, 2014: Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 1217–1308.

  • Compo, G. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis project. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 1–28, doi:10.1002/qj.776.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cook, E. R., K. J. Anchukaitis, B. M. Buckley, R. D. D’ Arrigo, G. C. Jacoby, and W. E. Wright, 2010: Asian monsoon failure and megadrought during the last millennium. Science, 328, 486–489, doi:10.1126/science.1185188.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Endo, H., and A. Kitoh, 2014: Thermodynamic and dynamic effects on regional monsoon rainfall changes in a warmer climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1704–1711, doi:10.1002/2013GL059158.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Ganguly, D., P. J. Rasch, H. Wang, and J.-H. Yoon, 2012a: Climate response of the South Asian monsoon system to anthropogenic aerosols. J. Geophys. Res.,117, D13209, doi:10.1029/2012JD017508.

  • Ganguly, D., P. J. Rasch, H. Wang, and J.-H. Yoon, 2012b: Fast and slow responses of the South Asian monsoon system to anthropogenic aerosols. Geophys. Res. Lett.,39, L18804, doi:10.1029/2012GL053043.

  • Harris, I., P. Jones, T. Osborn, and D. Lister, 2014: Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations—The CRU TS3.10 dataset. Int. J. Climatol., 34, 623–642, doi:10.1002/joc.3711.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate, 19, 5686–5699, doi:10.1175/JCLI3990.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hong, J., and J. Kim, 2011: Impact of the Asian monsoon climate on ecosystem carbon and water exchanges: A wavelet analysis and its ecosystem modeling implications. Global Change Biol., 17, 1900–1916, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02337.x.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kitoh, A., H. Endo, K. Krishna Kumar, I. F. A. Cavalcanti, P. Goswami, and T. Zhou, 2013: Monsoons in a changing world: A regional perspective in a global context. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 3053–3065, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50258.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Krishna Kumar, K., K. Rupa Kumar, R. G. Ashrit, N. R. Deshpande, and J. W. Hansen, 2004: Climate impacts on Indian agriculture. Int. J. Climatol., 24, 1375–1393, doi:10.1002/joc.1081.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Krishna Kumar, K., B. Rajagopalan, M. Hoerling, G. Bates, and M. Cane, 2006: Unraveling the mystery of Indian monsoon failure during El Niño. Science, 314, 115–119, doi:10.1126/science.1131152.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lau, K.-M., M.-K. Kim, and K.-M. Kim, 2006: Asian summer monsoon anomalies induced by aerosol direct forcing: The role of the Tibetan Plateau. Climate Dyn., 26 (7–8), 855–864, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0114-z.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lau, N.-C., and M. J. Nath, 2006: ENSO modulation of the interannual and intraseasonal variability of the East Asian monsoon—A model study. J. Climate, 19, 4508–4530, doi:10.1175/JCLI3878.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lee, J.-Y., and B. Wang, 2014: Future change of global monsoon in the CMIP5. Climate Dyn., 42 (1–2), 101–119, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1564-0.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lei, Y., B. Hoskins, and J. Slingo, 2011: Exploring the interplay between natural decadal variability and anthropogenic climate change in summer rainfall over China. Part I: Observational evidence. J. Climate, 24, 4584–4599, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3794.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lin, H., and Z. Wu, 2012: Indian summer monsoon influence on the climate in the North Atlantic–European region. Climate Dyn., 39 (1–2), 303–311, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1286-8.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Liu, X., and M. Yanai, 2001: Relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and the tropospheric temperature over the Eurasian continent. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 909–937, doi:10.1002/qj.49712757311.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mirza, M. M. Q., 2011: Climate change, flooding in South Asia and implications. Reg. Environ. Change, 11, 95–107, doi:10.1007/s10113-010-0184-7.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mishra, V., B. V. Smoliak, D. P. Lettenmaier, and J. M. Wallace, 2012: A prominent pattern of year-to-year variability in Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 7213–7217, doi:10.1073/pnas.1119150109.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • O’Gorman, P. A., R. P. Allan, M. P. Byrne, and M. Previdi, 2012: Energetic constraints on precipitation under climate change. Surv. Geophys., 33 (3–4), 585–608, doi:10.1007/s10712-011-9159-6.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Piao, S., and Coauthors, 2010: The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature, 467, 43–51, doi:10.1038/nature09364.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Ramanathan, V., and Coauthors, 2005: Atmospheric brown clouds: Impacts on South Asian climate and hydrological cycle. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 102, 5326–5333, doi:10.1073/pnas.0500656102.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rodwell, M. J., and B. J. Hoskins, 1996: Monsoons and the dynamics of deserts. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 1385–1404, doi:10.1002/qj.49712253408.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Schneider, U., A. Becker, P. Finger, A. Meyer-Christoffer, B. Rudolf, and M. Ziese, 2011: GPCC full data reanalysis version 6.0 at 0.5°: Monthly land-surface precipitation from rain-gauges built on GTS-based and historic data, doi:10.5676/DWD_GPCC/FD_M_V6_050.

  • Seager, R., and N. Henderson, 2013: Diagnostic computation of moisture budgets in the ERA-Interim reanalysis with reference to analysis of CMIP-archived atmospheric model data. J. Climate, 26, 7876–7901, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00018.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Seager, R., N. Naik, and G. A. Vecchi, 2010: Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J. Climate, 23, 4651–4668, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3655.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Seager, R., H. Liu, N. Henderson, I. Simpson, C. Kelley, T. Shaw, Y. Kushnir, and M. Ting, 2014: Causes of increasing aridification of the Mediterranean region in response to rising greenhouse gases. J. Climate, 27, 4655–4676, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00446.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Seo, K. H., J. Ok, J. H. Son, and D. H. Cha, 2013: Assessing future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon using CMIP5 coupled models. J. Climate, 26, 7662–7675, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00694.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Smith, T. M., R. W. Reynolds, T. C. Peterson, and J. Lawrimore, 2008: Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006). J. Climate, 21, 2283–2296, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI2100.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Song, F., T. Zhou, and Y. Qian, 2014: Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to natural and anthropogenic forcings in the 17 latest CMIP5 models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 596–603, doi:10.1002/2013GL058705.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Takahashi, K., 2009: Radiative constraints on the hydrological cycle in an idealized radiative–convective equilibrium model. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 77–91, doi:10.1175/2008JAS2797.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485–498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Ting, M., Y. Kushnir, R. Seager, and C. Li, 2009: Forced and internal twentieth-century SST trends in the North Atlantic. J. Climate, 22, 1469–1481, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2561.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Trenberth, K. E., and C. J. Guillemot, 1995: Evaluation of the global atmospheric moisture budget as seen from analyses. J. Climate, 8, 2255–2272, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<2255:EOTGAM>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Turner, A. G., and H. Annamalai, 2012: Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon. Nat. Climate Change, 2, 587–595, doi:10.1038/nclimate1495.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Ueda, H., A. Iwai, K. Kuwako, and M. E. Hori, 2006: Impact of anthropogenic forcing on the Asian summer monsoon as simulated by eight GCMs. Geophys. Res. Lett.,33, L06703, doi:10.1029/2005GL025336.

  • Vecchi, G. A., and B. J. Soden, 2007: Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation. J. Climate, 20, 4316–4340, doi:10.1175/JCLI4258.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Venzke, S., M. R. Allen, R. T. Sutton, and D. P. Rowell, 1999: The atmospheric response over the North Atlantic to decadal changes in sea surface temperature. J. Climate, 12, 2562–2584, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2562:TAROTN>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Wang, B., R. Wu, and X. Fu, 2000: Pacific–East Asian teleconnection: How does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J. Climate, 13, 1517–1536, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1517:PEATHD>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Wang, B., S.-Y. Yim, J.-Y. Lee, J. Liu, and K.-J. Ha, 2014: Future change of Asian-Australian monsoon under RCP 4.5 anthropogenic warming scenario. Climate Dyn., 42 (1–2), 83–100, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1769-x.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Wu, L., H. Su, and J. H. Jiang, 2013: Regional simulation of aerosol impacts on precipitation during the East Asian summer monsoon. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 6454–6467, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50527.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Xie, S.-P., C. Deser, G. A. Vecchi, J. Ma, H. Teng, and A. T. Wittenberg, 2010: Global warming pattern formation: Sea surface temperature and rainfall. J. Climate, 23, 966–986, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3329.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Xie, S.-P., B. Lu, and B. Xiang, 2013: Similar spatial patterns of climate responses to aerosol and greenhouse gas changes. Nat. Geosci., 6, 828–832, doi:10.1038/ngeo1931.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 1132 415 38
PDF Downloads 924 200 30