Changes in Moisture Flux over the Tibetan Plateau during 1979–2011: Insights from a High-Resolution Simulation

Yanhong Gao Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China

Search for other papers by Yanhong Gao in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
L. Ruby Leung Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

Search for other papers by L. Ruby Leung in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Yongxin Zhang Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by Yongxin Zhang in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
Lan Cuo Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environmental Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Search for other papers by Lan Cuo in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

Net precipitation [precipitation minus evapotranspiration (PE)] changes between 1979 and 2011 from a high-resolution regional climate simulation and its reanalysis forcing are analyzed over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and compared to the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) product. The high-resolution simulation better resolves precipitation changes than its coarse-resolution forcing, which contributes dominantly to the improved PE change in the regional simulation compared to the global reanalysis. Hence, the former may provide better insights about the drivers of PE changes. The mechanism behind the PE changes is explored by decomposing the column integrated moisture flux convergence into thermodynamic, dynamic, and transient eddy components. High-resolution climate simulation improves the spatial pattern of PE changes over the best available global reanalysis. High-resolution climate simulation also facilitates new and substantial findings regarding the role of thermodynamics and transient eddies in PE changes reflected in observed changes in major river basins fed by runoff from the TP. The analysis reveals the contrasting convergence/divergence changes between the northwestern and southeastern TP and feedback through latent heat release as an important mechanism leading to the mean PE changes in the TP.

Corresponding author address: Yanhong Gao, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 320 Donggang West Rd., Lanzhou 730000, China. E-mail: gaoyh@lzb.ac.cn

Abstract

Net precipitation [precipitation minus evapotranspiration (PE)] changes between 1979 and 2011 from a high-resolution regional climate simulation and its reanalysis forcing are analyzed over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and compared to the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) product. The high-resolution simulation better resolves precipitation changes than its coarse-resolution forcing, which contributes dominantly to the improved PE change in the regional simulation compared to the global reanalysis. Hence, the former may provide better insights about the drivers of PE changes. The mechanism behind the PE changes is explored by decomposing the column integrated moisture flux convergence into thermodynamic, dynamic, and transient eddy components. High-resolution climate simulation improves the spatial pattern of PE changes over the best available global reanalysis. High-resolution climate simulation also facilitates new and substantial findings regarding the role of thermodynamics and transient eddies in PE changes reflected in observed changes in major river basins fed by runoff from the TP. The analysis reveals the contrasting convergence/divergence changes between the northwestern and southeastern TP and feedback through latent heat release as an important mechanism leading to the mean PE changes in the TP.

Corresponding author address: Yanhong Gao, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 320 Donggang West Rd., Lanzhou 730000, China. E-mail: gaoyh@lzb.ac.cn
Save
  • Chen, F., and J. Dudhia, 2001: Coupling an advanced land surface–hydrology model with the Penn State–NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: Model implementation and sensitivity. Mon. Wea. Rev.,129, 569–585, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0569:CAALSH>2.0.CO;2.

  • Collins, W. D., and Coauthors, 2004: Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 3.0). NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-464+STR, 226 pp.

  • Cuo, L., Y. Zhang, Y. Gao, Z. Hao, and L. Cairang, 2013: The impacts of climate change and land cover/use transition on the hydrology in the upper Yellow River basin, China. J. Hydrol., 502, 3752, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.08.003.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dee, D. P., and S. Uppala, 2009: Variational bias correction of satellite radiance data in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 18301841, doi:10.1002/qj.493.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dee, D. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553597, doi:10.1002/qj.828.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Déqué, M., and Coauthors, 2005: Global high resolution versus limited area model climate change projections over Europe: Quantifying confidence level from PRUDENCE results. Climate Dyn., 25, 653670, doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0052-1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dong, L., W. Wang, J. Kong, H. Shi, Z. Guo, and L. Mai, 2005: Supervision of ecoenvironmental change based on RS methods and causal analysis in Maduo County in upriver regions of the Yellow River (in Chinese). Bull. Soil Water Conserv., 25 (4), 6872.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Duffy, P. B., and Coauthors, 2006: Simulations of present and future climates in the western United States with four nested regional climate models. J. Climate, 19, 873895, doi:10.1175/JCLI3669.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gao, X., Y. Shi, D. Zhang, J. Wu, F. Giorgi, Z. Ji, and Y. Wang, 2012: Uncertainties in monsoon precipitation projections over China: Results from two high-resolution RCM simulations. Climate Res., 52, 213–226, doi:10.3354/cr01084.

    • Search Google Scholar
  • Gao, Y., and Coauthors, 2008: Enhancement of land surface information and its impact on atmospheric modeling in the Heihe River Basin, northwest China. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D20S90, doi:10.1029/2008JD010359.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gao, Y., Y. Xue, W. Peng, H. Kang, and D. Waliser, 2011: Assessment of dynamic downscaling of China regional summer climate using regional climate model. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 28, 10771098, doi:10.1007/s00376-010-0039-7.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gao, Y., L. R. Leung, E. P. Salathé, Jr., F. Dominguez, B. Nijssen, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2012: Moisture flux convergence in regional and global climate models: Implications for droughts in the southwestern United States under climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09711, doi:10.1029/2012GL051560.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gao, Y., L. Cuo, and Y. Zhang, 2014: Changes in moisture flux over the Tibetan Plateau during 1979–2011 and possible mechanisms. J. Climate,27, 1876–1893, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00321.1.

  • Gao, Y., J. Xu, and D. Chen, 2015: Evaluation of WRF mesoscale climate simulations over the Tibetan Plateau. J. Climate, 28, 2823–2841, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00300.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Giorgi, F., G. T. Bates, and S. J. Nieman, 1992: Simulation of the arid climate of the southern Great Basin using a regional climate model. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 73, 18071822, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1992)073<1807:SOTACO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Grell, G. A., 1993: Prognostic evaluation of assumptions used by cumulus parameterizations. Mon. Wea. Rev.,121, 764–787, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<0764:PEOAUB>2.0.CO;2.

  • Hong, S.-Y., and H.-L. Pan, 1996: Nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion in a medium-range forecast model. Mon. Wea. Rev.,124, 2322–2339, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<2322:NBLVDI>2.0.CO;2.

  • Huffman, G. J., R. F. Adler, E. F. Stocker, D. T. Bolvin, and E. J. Nelkin, 2003: Analysis of TRMM 3-hourly multi-satellite precipitation estimates computed in both real and post-real time. Preprints, 12th Conf. on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P4.11. [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/54906.pdf.]

  • Ikeda, K., and Coauthors, 2010: Simulation of seasonal snowfall over Colorado. Atmos. Res., 97, 462477, doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.04.010.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jiang, Y., and J. Xia, 2007: The hydrological characteristics of runoff and its response to climate changes in Tarim. Resources Science, 29 (3), 4552.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jiménez, P. A., and J. Dudhia, 2012: Improving the representation of resolved and unresolved topographic effects on surface wind in the WRF Model. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 51, 300–316, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-11-084.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kang, S., Y. Xu, Q. You, W.-A. Flügel, N. Pepin, and T. Yao, 2010: Review of climate and cryospheric change in the Tibetan Plateau. Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 015101, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/015101.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kim, J., T. K. Kim, R. W. Arritt, and N. L. Miller, 2002: Impacts of increased atmospheric CO2 on the hydroclimate of the western United States. J. Climate, 15, 19261942, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1926:IOIACO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Krause, P., S. Biskop, J. Helmschrot, W.-A. Flügel, S. Kang, and T. Gao, 2010: Hydrological system analysis and modelling of the Nam Co basin in Tibet. Adv. Geosci., 27, 29–36, doi:10.5194/adgeo-27-29-2010.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Laprise, R., D. Caya, M. Giguere, G. Bergeron, H. Côté, J. P. Blanchet, G. J. Boer, and N. A. McFarlane, 1998: Climate and climate change in western Canada as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model. Atmos.–Ocean, 36, 119167, doi:10.1080/07055900.1998.9649609.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Leith, C. E., 1973: The standard error of time-average estimates of climatic means. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 10661069, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1973)012<1066:TSEOTA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Leung, L. R., Y. Qian, and X. Bian, 2003a: Hydroclimate of the western United States based on observations and regional climate simulation of 1981–2000. Part I: Seasonal statistics. J. Climate, 16, 18921911, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<1892:HOTWUS>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Leung, L. R., Y. Qian, J. Han, and J. O. Roads, 2003b: Intercomparison of global reanalyses and regional simulations of cold season water budgets in the western United States. J. Hydrometeor., 4, 10671087, doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1067:IOGRAR>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Li, D., and C. Liu, 2004: Study on land-cover change of the source regions of the Yellow River Basin in the past 10 years. J. Beijing Norm. Univ., 40, 269275.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Li, R., S. Lu, B. Han, and Y. Gao, 2012: Preliminary comparison and analyses of air temperature at 2m height between three reanalysis data-sets and observation in the east of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (in Chinese). Plateau Meteor., 31, 14881502.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mearns, L. O., W. Gutowski, R. Jones, R. Leung, S. McGinnis, A. Nunes, and Y. Qian, 2009: A regional climate change program for North America. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 90, 311, doi:10.1029/2009EO360002.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Meng, X., and Coauthors, 2009: Numerical simulations of the atmospheric and land conditions over the Jinta oasis in northwestern China with satellite-derived land surface parameters. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D06114, doi:10.1029/2008JD010360.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Moore, G. W. K., 2012: Surface pressure record of Tibetan Plateau warming since the 1870s. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 19992008, doi:10.1002/qj.1948.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nikulin, G., and Coauthors, 2012: Precipitation climatology in an ensemble of CORDEX-Africa regional climate simulations. J. Climate, 25, 60576078, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00375.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Plummer, D., D. Caya, A. Frigon, H. Côté, M. Giguère, D. Paquin, S. Biner, R. Harvey, and R. de Elia, 2006: Climate and climate change over North America as simulated by the Canadian RCM. J. Climate, 19, 3112–3132, doi:10.1175/JCLI3769.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rasmussen, R., and Coauthors, 2011: High-resolution coupled climate runoff simulations of seasonal snowfall over Colorado: A process study of current and warmer climate. J. Climate, 24, 3015–3048, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3985.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rodell, M., and Coauthors, 2004: The Global Land Data Assimilation System. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 381394, doi:10.1175/BAMS-85-3-381.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Seager, R., N. Naik, and G. A. Vecchi, 2010: Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J. Climate, 23, 46514668, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3655.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Simmons, A., S. Uppala, D. Dee, and S. Kobayashi, 2006: ERA-Interim: New ECMWF reanalysis products from 1989 onwards. ECMWF Newsletter, No. 110, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, 25–35.

  • Skamarock, W. C., J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, D. M. Barker, W. Wang, and J. G. Powers, 2005: A description of the Advanced Research WRF, version 2. NCAR Tech. Note 468+STR, 88 pp. [Available online at http://wrf-model.org/wrfadmin/docs/arw_v2.pdf.]

  • Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. Averyt, M. M. B. Tignor, and H. L. Miller Jr., 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, 996 pp.

  • Turk, F. J., G. Rohaly, J. D. Hawkins, E. A. Smith, A. Grose, F. S. Marzano, A. Mugnai, and V. Levizzani, 2000: Analysis and assimilation of rainfall from blended SSM/I, TRMM, and geostationary satellite data. Preprints, 10th Conf. on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 66–69.

  • Wang, A., and X. Zeng, 2012: Evaluation of multi-reanalysis products with in situ observations over the Tibetan Plateau. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D05102, doi:10.1029/2011JD016553.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, J., and J. Meng, 2008: Characteristics and tendencies of annual runoff variations in the Heihe River Basin during the past 60 years. Sci. Geogr. Sin., 28, 8388.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, G., A. Duan, X. Zhang, Y. Liu, Y. Ma, and K. Yang, 2013: Extreme weather and climate changes and its environmental effects over the Tibetan Plateau. Chin. J. Nat., 35 (3), 167–171.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, S., Y. Yin, D. Zheng, and Q. Yang, 2007: Climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau during 1971–2000. J. Geogr. Sci.,17, 141–151, doi:10.1007/s11442-007-0141-7.

  • Xu, J., and Y. Gao, 2014: Validation of summer surface air temperature and precipitation simulation over Heihe River Basin. Plateau Meteor., 33, 937946, doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00149.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Xu, Z. X., T. L. Gong, and J. Y. Li, 2008: Decadal trend of climate in the Tibetan Plateau—Regional temperature and precipitation. Hydrol. Processes, 22, 30563065, doi:10.1002/hyp.6892.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yang, K., B. Ye, D. Zhou, B. Wu, T. Foken, J. Qin, and Z. Zhou, 2011: Response of hydrological cycle to recent climate changes in the Tibetan Plateau. Climatic Change, 109, 517–534, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0099-4.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yin, Y., S. Wu, D. Zhao, D. Zheng, and T. Pan, 2012: Impact of climate change on actual evapotranspiration on the Tibetan Plateau during 1981–2010 (in Chinese). Acta Geogr. Sin., 67, 14711481.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • You, Q., S. Kang, E. Aguilar, and Y. Yan, 2008: Changes in daily climate extremes in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2005. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D07101, doi:10.1029/2007JD009389.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, Y., V. Dulière, P. Mote, and E. P. Salathé, 2009: Evaluation of WRF and HadRM mesoscale climate simulations over the United States Pacific Northwest. J. Climate, 22, 55115526, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2875.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 550 200 32
PDF Downloads 392 132 20