Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Attribution of the Recent Winter Sea Ice Decline over the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic Ocean

Doo-Sun R. Park Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, and Research Institute of Basic Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea

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Sukyoung Lee Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, and School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea

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Steven B. Feldstein Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania

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Print Publication:
15 May 2015
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0042.1
Page(s):
4027–4033
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Abstract

Wintertime Arctic sea ice extent has been declining since the late twentieth century, particularly over the Atlantic sector that encompasses the Barents–Kara Seas and Baffin Bay. This sea ice decline is attributable to various Arctic environmental changes, such as enhanced downward infrared (IR) radiation, preseason sea ice reduction, enhanced inflow of warm Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean, and sea ice export. However, their relative contributions are uncertain. Utilizing ERA-Interim and satellite-based data, it is shown here that a positive trend of downward IR radiation accounts for nearly half of the sea ice concentration (SIC) decline during the 1979–2011 winter over the Atlantic sector. Furthermore, the study shows that the Arctic downward IR radiation increase is driven by horizontal atmospheric water flux and warm air advection into the Arctic, not by evaporation from the Arctic Ocean. These findings suggest that most of the winter SIC trends can be attributed to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulations.

Supplemental information related to this paper is available at the Journals Online website: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0042.s1.

Corresponding author address: Sukyoung Lee, Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, 524 Walker Building, University Park, PA 16802-5013. E-mail: sxl31@psu.edu

Abstract

Wintertime Arctic sea ice extent has been declining since the late twentieth century, particularly over the Atlantic sector that encompasses the Barents–Kara Seas and Baffin Bay. This sea ice decline is attributable to various Arctic environmental changes, such as enhanced downward infrared (IR) radiation, preseason sea ice reduction, enhanced inflow of warm Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean, and sea ice export. However, their relative contributions are uncertain. Utilizing ERA-Interim and satellite-based data, it is shown here that a positive trend of downward IR radiation accounts for nearly half of the sea ice concentration (SIC) decline during the 1979–2011 winter over the Atlantic sector. Furthermore, the study shows that the Arctic downward IR radiation increase is driven by horizontal atmospheric water flux and warm air advection into the Arctic, not by evaporation from the Arctic Ocean. These findings suggest that most of the winter SIC trends can be attributed to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulations.

Supplemental information related to this paper is available at the Journals Online website: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0042.s1.

Corresponding author address: Sukyoung Lee, Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, 524 Walker Building, University Park, PA 16802-5013. E-mail: sxl31@psu.edu

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