Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Projection of Summer Precipitation over the Southeastern United States in the Superparameterized CCSM4

Xiaojie Zhu Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia

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Cristiana Stan Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, and Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia

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Print Publication:
15 Oct 2015
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00765.1
Page(s):
8052–8066
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Abstract

Projections of the hydrological cycle over the southeastern United States are compared between CCSM4 and the superparameterized model (SP-CCSM4). Under the extreme forcing of the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) climate change scenario, in Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Kentucky, SP-CCSM4 projects a decrease in summer precipitation, whereas the conventionally parameterized CCSM4 projects an increase in summer rainfall. The projected reduction in summer precipitation in SP-CCSM4 is due to the remote influence from the northwest intrusion of the North Atlantic subtropical high, as well as the local decrease of soil moisture content. Both models show that summer precipitation over the southern United States is characterized by a positive feedback with soil moisture. However, in CCSM4 rainfall increases with increasing soil moisture and in SP-CCSM4 rainfall decreases with decreasing soil moisture.

The different representation of cloud processes in the two models yields different responses of precipitation to the latent heat flux changes over the southeastern United States. Moreover, multivariate EOF analyses in the two models suggest that the local land–atmosphere interactions have a stronger influence on the projected changes of precipitation over the southeastern United States than does the North Atlantic subtropical high.

Corresponding author address: Xiaojie Zhu, Department of Statistics, Heroy Building, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, TX 75275. E-mail: xzhu@cola.iges.org; stan@cola.iges.org

Abstract

Projections of the hydrological cycle over the southeastern United States are compared between CCSM4 and the superparameterized model (SP-CCSM4). Under the extreme forcing of the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) climate change scenario, in Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Kentucky, SP-CCSM4 projects a decrease in summer precipitation, whereas the conventionally parameterized CCSM4 projects an increase in summer rainfall. The projected reduction in summer precipitation in SP-CCSM4 is due to the remote influence from the northwest intrusion of the North Atlantic subtropical high, as well as the local decrease of soil moisture content. Both models show that summer precipitation over the southern United States is characterized by a positive feedback with soil moisture. However, in CCSM4 rainfall increases with increasing soil moisture and in SP-CCSM4 rainfall decreases with decreasing soil moisture.

The different representation of cloud processes in the two models yields different responses of precipitation to the latent heat flux changes over the southeastern United States. Moreover, multivariate EOF analyses in the two models suggest that the local land–atmosphere interactions have a stronger influence on the projected changes of precipitation over the southeastern United States than does the North Atlantic subtropical high.

Corresponding author address: Xiaojie Zhu, Department of Statistics, Heroy Building, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, TX 75275. E-mail: xzhu@cola.iges.org; stan@cola.iges.org
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