• Alexander, L. V., and Coauthors, 2006: Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D05109, doi:10.1029/2005JD006290.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Alexander, L. V., N. Tapper, X. Zhang, H. J. Fowler, C. Tebaldi, and A. Lynch, 2009: Climate extremes: Progress and future directions. Int. J. Climatol., 29, 317319, doi:10.1002/joc.1861.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brown, P. J., R. S. Bradley, and F. T. Keimig, 2010: Changes in extreme climate indices for the northeastern United States, 1870–2005. J. Climate, 23, 65556572, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3363.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Buell, C. E., 1975: The topography of empirical orthogonal functions. Proc. Fourth Conf. on Probability and Statistics in Atmospheric Sciences, Tallahassee, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 188–193.

  • Changnon, S. A., R. A. Pielke, D. Changnon, R. T. Sylves, and R. Pulwarty, 2000: Human factors explain the increased losses from weather and climate extremes. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 437442, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0437:HFETIL>2.3.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Coleman, J. M., 1988: Climatic warming and increased summer aridity in Florida, U.S.A. Climatic Change, 12, 165178, doi:10.1007/BF00138937.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • DeGaetano, A. T., and R. J. Allen, 2002: Trends in twentieth-century temperature extremes across the United States. J. Climate, 15, 31883205, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3188:TITCTE>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Diem, J. E., 2013: Influences of the Bermuda high and atmospheric moistening on changes in summer rainfall in the Atlanta, Georgia region, USA. Int. J. Climatol., 33, 160172, doi:10.1002/joc.3421.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dodge, Y., 1985: Analysis of Experiments with Missing Data. Wiley, 449 pp.

  • Donat, M. G., L. V. Alexander, H. Yang, I. Durre, R. Vose, and J. Caesar, 2013: Global land-based datasets for monitoring climatic extremes. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 9971006, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00109.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • dos Santos, C. A. C., C. M. U. Neale, T. V. R. Rao, and B. B. da Silva, 2011: Trends in indices for extremes in daily temperature and precipitation over Utah, USA. Int. J. Climatol., 31, 18131822, doi:10.1002/joc.2205.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Easterling, D. R., J. L. Evans, P. Ya. Groisman, T. R. Karl, K. E. Kunkel, and P. Ambenje, 2000: Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: A brief review. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 417425, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0417:OVATIE>2.3.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Faiers, G. E., and B. D. Keim, 2008: Three-hour and twenty-four-hour rainstorm rations across the southern United States. J. Hydrol. Eng., 13,101104, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2008)13:2(101).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Faiers, G. E., B. D. Keim, and K. K. Hirschboeck, 1994: A synoptic evaluation of frequencies and intensities of extreme three- and 24-hour rainfall in Louisiana. Prof. Geogr., 46, 156163, doi:10.1111/j.0033-0124.1994.00156.x.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Frich, P., L. V. Alexander, P. Della-Marta, B. Gleason, M. Haylock, A. K. Tank, and T. C. Peterson, 2002: Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Res., 19, 193212, doi:10.3354/cr019193.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gall, M., K. A. Borden, C. T. Emrich, and S. L. Cutter, 2011: The unsustainable trend of natural hazard losses in the United States. Sustainability, 3, 21572181, doi:10.3390/su3112157.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Green, M. C., R. G. Flocchini, and L. O. Myrup, 1993: Use of temporal principal component analysis to determine seasonal periods. J. Appl. Meteor., 32, 986995, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1993)032<0986:UOTPCA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Griffiths, M. L., and R. S. Bradley, 2007: Variations of twentieth-century temperature and precipitation extreme indicators in the Northeast United States. J. Climate, 20, 54015417, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1594.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Groisman, P. Ya., R. W. Knight, T. R. Karl, D. R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J. H. Lawrimore, 2004: Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations. J. Hydrometeor., 5, 6485, doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2004)005<0064:CCOTHC>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hamilton, L. C., 1992: Regression with Graphics. Duxbury, 363 pp.

  • Henderson, K. G., and P. J. Robinson, 1994: Relationships between the Pacific/North American teleconnection patterns and precipitation events in the southeastern USA. Int. J. Climatol., 14, 307323, doi:10.1002/joc.3370140305.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Henderson, K. G., and A. J. Vega, 1996: Regional precipitation variability in the southern United States. Phys. Geography, 17, 93112.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Henderson, K. G., and R. A. Muller, 1997: Extreme temperature days in the south-central United States. Climate Res., 8, 151162, doi:10.3354/cr008151.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Insaf, T. Z., S. Lin, and S. C. Sheridan, 2012: Climate trends in indices for temperature and precipitation across New York State, 1948–2008. Air Qual. Atmos. Health,6, 247–257, doi:10.1007/s11869-011-0168-x.

  • Josse, J., and F. Husson, 2012: Selecting the number of components in PCA using cross-validation approximations. Comput. Stat. Data Anal., 56, 18691879, doi:10.1016/j.csda.2011.11.012.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Karhunen, J., 2011: Robust PCA methods for complete and missing data. Aalto University School of Science Department of Information and Computer Science Rep., 34 pp. [Available online at http://research.ics.aalto.fi/publications/bibdb2012/public_pdfs/NNW_RobustPCA.pdf.]

  • Katz, R. W., M. B. Parlange, and C. Tebaldi, 2003: Stochastic modeling of the effects of large-scale circulation on daily weather in the southeastern U.S. Climatic Change, 60, 189216, doi:10.1023/A:1026054330406.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Keim, B. D., 1996: Spatial, synoptic, and seasonal patterns of heavy rainfall in the southeastern United States. Phys. Geogr., 17, 313328.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Keim, B. D., 1997: Preliminary analysis of the temporal patterns of heavy rainfall across the southeastern United States. Prof. Geogr., 49, 94104, doi:10.1111/0033-0124.00060.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Keim, B. D., 1999: Precipitation annual maxima as a measure of change in extreme rainfall magnitudes in the southeastern United States over the past century. Southeast. Geogr., 39, 235245, doi:10.1353/sgo.1999.0003.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Keim, B. D., G. E. Faiers, R. A. Muller, J. M. Grymes III, and R. V. Rohli, 1995: Long-term trends of precipitation and runoff in Louisiana, USA. Int. J. Climatol., 15, 531541, doi:10.1002/joc.3370150505.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Keim, B. D., R. A. Muller, and G. W. Stone, 2007: Spatiotemporal patterns and return periods of tropical storm and hurricane strikes from Texas to Maine. J. Climate, 20, 34983509, doi:10.1175/JCLI4187.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Klein Tank, A. M. G., F. W. Zwiers, and X. Zhang, 2009: Guidelines on analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation. WMO Climate Data and Monitoring Rep. WCDMP-72, 55 pp.

  • Knight, D. B., and R. E. Davis, 2009: Contribution of tropical cyclones to extreme rainfall events in the southeastern United States. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D23102, doi:10.1029/2009JD012511.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kunkel, K. E., 2003: North American trends in extreme precipitation. Nat. Hazards, 29, 291305, doi:10.1023/A:1023694115864.

  • Kunkel, K. E., and Coauthors, 2013: Regional Climate trends and scenarios for the U.S. National Climate Assessment: Part 2. Climate of the southeast U.S. NOAA Tech. Rep. NESDIS 142-2, 103 pp.

  • Li, W., L. Li, M. Ting, and Y. Liu, 2012: Intensification of Northern Hemisphere subtropical highs in a warming climate. Nat. Geosci., 5, 830–834, doi:10.1038/ngeo1590.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lu, Q. Q., R. Lund, and L. Seymour, 2005: An update of U.S. temperature trends. J. Climate, 18, 49064915, doi:10.1175/JCLI3557.1.

  • Lund, R., L. Seymour, and K. Kafadar, 2001: Temperature trends in the United States. Environmetrics, 12, 673690, doi:10.1002/env.468.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Malmstadt, J., K. Scheitlin, and J. Elsner, 2009: Florida hurricanes and damage costs. Southeast. Geogr., 49, 108131, doi:10.1353/sgo.0.0045.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Melillo, J. M., T. T. C. Richmond, and G. W. Yohe, Eds., 2014: Climate change impacts in the United States. Third National Climate Assessment, 841 pp.

  • Menne, M. J., I. Durre, R. S. Vose, B. E. Gleason, and T. G. Houston, 2012: An overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily database. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 29, 897910, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-11-00103.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Menne, M. J., C. N. Williams Jr., and R. S. Vose, cited 2013: United States Historical Climatology Network daily temperature, precipitation, and snow data. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center Dataset. [Available online at http://cdiac.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/ushcn/ushcn.html.]

  • Moberg, A., and P. D. Jones, 2005: Trends in indices for extremes in daily temperature and precipitation in central and western Europe, 1901-99. Int. J. Climatol., 25, 11491171, doi:10.1002/joc.1163.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • NOAA, cited 2013: Billion dollar weather/climate disasters. [Available online at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/.]

  • Nogueira, R. C., B. D. Keim, D. P. Brown, and K. D. Robbins, 2013: Variability of rainfall from tropical cyclones in the eastern USA and its association to the AMO and ENSO. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 112, 273283, doi:10.1007/s00704-012-0722-y.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • NWS, cited 2012a: National Weather Service southern region headquarters. [Available online at http://www.srh.noaa.gov.]

  • NWS, 2012b: National Weather Service instruction 10-1307. Operations and Services Surface Observation Program (Land) NDPD 10-13, 54 pp. [Available online at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01013007curr.pdf.]

  • Pan, Z., R. W. Arritt, E. S. Takle, W. J. Gutowski Jr., C. J. Anderson, and M. Segal, 2004: Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming climate introduces a “warming hole.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L17109, doi:10.1029/2004GL020528.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Peterson, T. C., P. A. Stott, and S. Herring, 2012: Explaining extreme events of 2011 from a climate perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 10411067, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00021.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pielke, R. A., J. Gratz, C. Landsea, D. Collins, M. Saunders, and R. Musulin, 2008: Normalized hurricane damage in the United States, 1900-2005. Nat. Hazards Rev., 9, 2942, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2008)9:1(29).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Richman, M., 1986: Rotation of principal components. J. Climatol., 6, 293335, doi:10.1002/joc.3370060305.

  • Rogers, J. C., 2013: The 20th century cooling trend over the southeastern United States. Climate Dyn., 40, 341352, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1437-6.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller, Eds., 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, 996 pp.

  • Stocker, T. F., and Coauthors, Eds., 2014: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, 1535 pp.

  • Vega, A. J., and K. G. Henderson, 1996: On the use of eigenvector techniques in climatological analysis. Pa. Geogr., 34, 5073.

  • White, D., M. Richman, and B. Yarnal, 1991: Climate regionalization and rotation of principal components. Int. J. Climatol., 11, 125, doi:10.1002/joc.3370110102.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, X., and F. Yang, 2004: RClimDex (1.0) user manual. Environment Canada, 23 pp. [Available online at http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/RClimDex/RClimDexUserManual.doc.]

  • Zhang, X., G. Hegerl, F. W. Zwiers, and J. Kenyon, 2005: Avoiding inhomogeneity in percentile-based indices of temperature extremes. J. Climate, 18, 16411651, doi:10.1175/JCLI3366.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 23 23 23
PDF Downloads 12 12 12

Trends in Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes for the Southeastern United States: 1948–2012

View More View Less
  • 1 Department of Geography and Anthropology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Restricted access

Abstract

Spatial and temporal trends in temperature and precipitation extremes were investigated for the period 1948–2012 across the southeastern United States using 27 previously defined indices. Results show that regionwide warming in extreme minimum temperatures and cooling in extreme maximum temperatures occurred. The disproportionate changes in extreme daytime and nighttime temperatures are narrowing diurnal temperature ranges for most locations. The intensity and magnitude of extreme precipitation events increased overall, except for more easterly locations, particularly in South Carolina. These indices further show that warming in minimum temperatures has been pronounced most in summer and least in winter. Fall has become significantly wetter, while spring and summer have become drier, on average. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to characterize a “geography of extremes” based on temperature and precipitation extreme indices. The PCA based on temperature indices revealed two coherent western and eastern subregions that share common modes of variability in extremes. Precipitation indices resulted in a greater number of smaller, spatially coherent groups exhibiting similar modes of variability. This classification regime illustrates important variations in extremes that exist on subregional scales. These findings have relevance for established climate research institutes, local governments, resource managers, and community planners interested in the variability of extreme events throughout the region.

Current affiliation: Coastal Sustainability Studio, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

Corresponding author address: Emily Powell, Coastal Sustainability Studio, 212 Design Building, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803. E-mail: epowel8@lsu.edu

Abstract

Spatial and temporal trends in temperature and precipitation extremes were investigated for the period 1948–2012 across the southeastern United States using 27 previously defined indices. Results show that regionwide warming in extreme minimum temperatures and cooling in extreme maximum temperatures occurred. The disproportionate changes in extreme daytime and nighttime temperatures are narrowing diurnal temperature ranges for most locations. The intensity and magnitude of extreme precipitation events increased overall, except for more easterly locations, particularly in South Carolina. These indices further show that warming in minimum temperatures has been pronounced most in summer and least in winter. Fall has become significantly wetter, while spring and summer have become drier, on average. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to characterize a “geography of extremes” based on temperature and precipitation extreme indices. The PCA based on temperature indices revealed two coherent western and eastern subregions that share common modes of variability in extremes. Precipitation indices resulted in a greater number of smaller, spatially coherent groups exhibiting similar modes of variability. This classification regime illustrates important variations in extremes that exist on subregional scales. These findings have relevance for established climate research institutes, local governments, resource managers, and community planners interested in the variability of extreme events throughout the region.

Current affiliation: Coastal Sustainability Studio, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

Corresponding author address: Emily Powell, Coastal Sustainability Studio, 212 Design Building, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803. E-mail: epowel8@lsu.edu
Save