Editorial Type:
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Article Type:
Research Article

Seasonal–Interannual Variation and Prediction of Wet and Dry Season Rainfall over the Maritime Continent: Roles of ENSO and Monsoon Circulation

Tuantuan Zhang Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China

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Song Yang Department of Atmospheric Sciences, and Institute of Earth Climate and Environment System, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China

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Xingwen Jiang Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu, Sichuan, China

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Ping Zhao State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

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Print Publication:
15 May 2016
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0222.1
Page(s):
3675–3695
Restricted access

Abstract

The authors analyze the seasonal–interannual variations of rainfall over the Maritime Continent (MC) and their relationships with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and large-scale monsoon circulation. They also investigate the predictability of MC rainfall using the hindcast of the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2).

The seasonal evolution of MC rainfall is characterized by a wet season from December to March and a dry season from July to October. The increased (decreased) rainfall in the wet season is related to the peak-decaying phase of La Niña (El Niño), whereas the increased (decreased) rainfall in the dry season is related to the developing phase of La Niña (El Niño), with an apparent spatial incoherency of the SST–rainfall relationship in the wet season. For extremely wet cases of the wet season, local warm SST also contributes to the above-normal rainfall over the MC except for the western area of the MC due to the effect of the strong East Asian winter monsoon.

The CFSv2 shows high skill in predicting the main features of MC rainfall variations and their relationships with ENSO and anomalies of the large-scale monsoon circulation, especially for strong ENSO years. It predicts the rainfall and its related circulation patterns skillfully in advance by several months, especially for the dry season. The relatively lower skill of predicting MC rainfall for the wet season is partly due to the low prediction skill of rainfall over Sumatra, Malay, and Borneo (SMB), as well as the unrealistically predicted relationship between SMB rainfall and ENSO.

Denotes Open Access content.

Corresponding author address: Prof. Song Yang, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, 135 West Xingang Road, Guangzhou 510275, China. E-mail: yangsong3@mail.sysu.edu.cn

Abstract

The authors analyze the seasonal–interannual variations of rainfall over the Maritime Continent (MC) and their relationships with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and large-scale monsoon circulation. They also investigate the predictability of MC rainfall using the hindcast of the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2).

The seasonal evolution of MC rainfall is characterized by a wet season from December to March and a dry season from July to October. The increased (decreased) rainfall in the wet season is related to the peak-decaying phase of La Niña (El Niño), whereas the increased (decreased) rainfall in the dry season is related to the developing phase of La Niña (El Niño), with an apparent spatial incoherency of the SST–rainfall relationship in the wet season. For extremely wet cases of the wet season, local warm SST also contributes to the above-normal rainfall over the MC except for the western area of the MC due to the effect of the strong East Asian winter monsoon.

The CFSv2 shows high skill in predicting the main features of MC rainfall variations and their relationships with ENSO and anomalies of the large-scale monsoon circulation, especially for strong ENSO years. It predicts the rainfall and its related circulation patterns skillfully in advance by several months, especially for the dry season. The relatively lower skill of predicting MC rainfall for the wet season is partly due to the low prediction skill of rainfall over Sumatra, Malay, and Borneo (SMB), as well as the unrealistically predicted relationship between SMB rainfall and ENSO.

Denotes Open Access content.

Corresponding author address: Prof. Song Yang, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, 135 West Xingang Road, Guangzhou 510275, China. E-mail: yangsong3@mail.sysu.edu.cn
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