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Does the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Get Its Predictability from the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation?

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  • 1 Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia
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Abstract

This paper investigates the predictive relation between the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation across different climate models. Three overturning patterns that are significantly coupled to the AMO on interannual time scales across all climate models are identified using a statistical optimization technique. Including these structures in an autoregressive model extends AMO predictability by 2–9 years, relative to an autoregressive model without these structures.

Corresponding author address: Laurie Trenary, Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, 280 Research Hall, Mail Stop 6C5, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA 22030. E-mail: ltrenary@cola.iges.org

Abstract

This paper investigates the predictive relation between the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation across different climate models. Three overturning patterns that are significantly coupled to the AMO on interannual time scales across all climate models are identified using a statistical optimization technique. Including these structures in an autoregressive model extends AMO predictability by 2–9 years, relative to an autoregressive model without these structures.

Corresponding author address: Laurie Trenary, Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, 280 Research Hall, Mail Stop 6C5, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA 22030. E-mail: ltrenary@cola.iges.org
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