Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Linear Additive Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice Reduction and La Niña on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate

Zhe Han China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, and Institute of Atmospheric Physics/RCE-TEA, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

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Shuanglin Li China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, and Institute of Atmospheric Physics/RCE-TEA, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

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Jiping Liu Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

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Yongqi Gao Institute of Atmospheric Physics/RCE-TEA, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, and Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center/Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway

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Ping Zhao State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

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Print Publication:
01 Aug 2016
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0416.1
Page(s):
5513–5532
Restricted access

Abstract

Both Arctic sea ice loss and La Niña events can result in cold conditions in midlatitude Eurasia in winter. Since the two forcings sometimes occur simultaneously, determining whether they are independent of each other is undertaken first. The result suggests an overall independence. Considering possible interactions between them, their coordinated impacts on the Northern Hemisphere winter climate are then investigated based on observational data analyses, historical simulation analyses from one coupled model (MPI-ESM-LR) contributing to CMIP5, and atmospheric general circulation model sensitive experiments in ECHAM5. The results show that the impacts of the two forcings are overall linearly accumulated. In comparison with one single forcing, there is intensified cooling response in midlatitude Eurasia along with northern warmer–southern cooler dipolar temperature responses over North America. Despite the additive linearity, additive nonlinearity between the two forcings is identifiable. The nonlinearity causes midlatitude Eurasian cooling weakened by one-tenth to one-fifth as much as their individual impacts in combination. The underlying mechanisms for the weak additive nonlinearity are finally explored by transient adjustment AGCM runs with one single forcing or both the forcings switched on suddenly. The day-to-day evolution of responses suggests that the additive nonlinearity may arise initially from the forced wave dynamics and then be amplified because of the involvement of transient eddy feedbacks.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Shuanglin Li, CCRC/IAP/CAS, P.O. Box 9804, Beijing 100029, China. E-mail: shuanglin.li@mail.iap.ac.cn

Abstract

Both Arctic sea ice loss and La Niña events can result in cold conditions in midlatitude Eurasia in winter. Since the two forcings sometimes occur simultaneously, determining whether they are independent of each other is undertaken first. The result suggests an overall independence. Considering possible interactions between them, their coordinated impacts on the Northern Hemisphere winter climate are then investigated based on observational data analyses, historical simulation analyses from one coupled model (MPI-ESM-LR) contributing to CMIP5, and atmospheric general circulation model sensitive experiments in ECHAM5. The results show that the impacts of the two forcings are overall linearly accumulated. In comparison with one single forcing, there is intensified cooling response in midlatitude Eurasia along with northern warmer–southern cooler dipolar temperature responses over North America. Despite the additive linearity, additive nonlinearity between the two forcings is identifiable. The nonlinearity causes midlatitude Eurasian cooling weakened by one-tenth to one-fifth as much as their individual impacts in combination. The underlying mechanisms for the weak additive nonlinearity are finally explored by transient adjustment AGCM runs with one single forcing or both the forcings switched on suddenly. The day-to-day evolution of responses suggests that the additive nonlinearity may arise initially from the forced wave dynamics and then be amplified because of the involvement of transient eddy feedbacks.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Shuanglin Li, CCRC/IAP/CAS, P.O. Box 9804, Beijing 100029, China. E-mail: shuanglin.li@mail.iap.ac.cn
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