Editorial Type:
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Article Type:
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Extreme Noise–Extreme El Niño: How State-Dependent Noise Forcing Creates El Niño–La Niña Asymmetry

Aaron Levine Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, and NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington

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Fei Fei Jin Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

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Michael J. McPhaden NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington

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Print Publication:
01 Aug 2016
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0091.1
Page(s):
5483–5499
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Abstract

A major open question about El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is what causes ENSO amplitude asymmetry, with strong El Niños generally larger than strong La Niñas. The authors examine a leading hypothesis—that the ENSO state modifies the fetch and/or wind speed of westerly wind bursts (WWBs) that create asymmetric forcing and an asymmetric ENSO response. Further, in El Niño forecasts, the number of WWBs expected increases in the month following a strong WWB when compared with the month preceding it. Using a conceptual model, a relationship is derived between the magnitude of the westerly wind burst state dependence on ENSO and ENSO asymmetry. It is found that this relationship between the magnitude of the state dependence and ENSO asymmetry holds in both the observations and 21 coupled climate models. Finally, it is found that because of state-dependent westerly wind burst forcing, extreme El Niño events tend to be of the eastern Pacific variety.

Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory Contribution Number 4426.

Corresponding author address: Aaron Levine, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle 98115, Washington. E-mail: aaron.levine@noaa.gov

Abstract

A major open question about El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is what causes ENSO amplitude asymmetry, with strong El Niños generally larger than strong La Niñas. The authors examine a leading hypothesis—that the ENSO state modifies the fetch and/or wind speed of westerly wind bursts (WWBs) that create asymmetric forcing and an asymmetric ENSO response. Further, in El Niño forecasts, the number of WWBs expected increases in the month following a strong WWB when compared with the month preceding it. Using a conceptual model, a relationship is derived between the magnitude of the westerly wind burst state dependence on ENSO and ENSO asymmetry. It is found that this relationship between the magnitude of the state dependence and ENSO asymmetry holds in both the observations and 21 coupled climate models. Finally, it is found that because of state-dependent westerly wind burst forcing, extreme El Niño events tend to be of the eastern Pacific variety.

Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory Contribution Number 4426.

Corresponding author address: Aaron Levine, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle 98115, Washington. E-mail: aaron.levine@noaa.gov
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