Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

The Effects of Climate Change on Seasonal Snowpack and the Hydrology of the Northeastern and Upper Midwest United States

Eleonora M. C. Demaria Northeast Climate Science Center, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts

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Joshua K. Roundy Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas

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Sungwook Wi Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts

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Richard N. Palmer Northeast Climate Science Center, and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts

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Print Publication:
15 Sep 2016
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0632.1
Page(s):
6527–6541
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Abstract

The potential effects of climate change on the snowpack of the northeastern and upper Midwest United States are assessed using statistically downscaled climate projections from an ensemble of 10 climate models and a macroscale hydrological model. Climate simulations for the region indicate warmer-than-normal temperatures and wetter conditions for the snow season (November–April) during the twenty-first century. However, despite projected increases in seasonal precipitation, statistically significant negative trends in snow water equivalent (SWE) are found for the region. Snow cover is likely to migrate northward in the future as a result of warmer-than-present air temperatures, with higher loss rates in northern latitudes and at high elevation. Decreases in future (2041–95) snow cover in early spring will likely affect the timing of maximum spring peak streamflow, with earlier peaks predicted in more than 80% of the 124 basins studied.

Current affiliation: Southwest Watershed Research Center, USDA-ARS, Tucson, Arizona.

Corresponding author address: Eleonora M.C. Demaria, Northeast Climate Science Center, 42C Marston Hall, Natural Resources Road, Amherst, MA, 01003-9293. E-mail: eleonora.demaria@ars.usda.gov

Abstract

The potential effects of climate change on the snowpack of the northeastern and upper Midwest United States are assessed using statistically downscaled climate projections from an ensemble of 10 climate models and a macroscale hydrological model. Climate simulations for the region indicate warmer-than-normal temperatures and wetter conditions for the snow season (November–April) during the twenty-first century. However, despite projected increases in seasonal precipitation, statistically significant negative trends in snow water equivalent (SWE) are found for the region. Snow cover is likely to migrate northward in the future as a result of warmer-than-present air temperatures, with higher loss rates in northern latitudes and at high elevation. Decreases in future (2041–95) snow cover in early spring will likely affect the timing of maximum spring peak streamflow, with earlier peaks predicted in more than 80% of the 124 basins studied.

Current affiliation: Southwest Watershed Research Center, USDA-ARS, Tucson, Arizona.

Corresponding author address: Eleonora M.C. Demaria, Northeast Climate Science Center, 42C Marston Hall, Natural Resources Road, Amherst, MA, 01003-9293. E-mail: eleonora.demaria@ars.usda.gov
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