Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

An Assessment of Multimodel Simulations for the Variability of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones and Its Association with ENSO

Rongqing Han National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

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Hui Wang NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, Maryland

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Zeng-Zhen Hu NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, Maryland

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Arun Kumar NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, Maryland

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Weijing Li National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

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Lindsey N. Long NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, Maryland
Innovim, Greenbelt, Maryland

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Jae-Kyung E. Schemm NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, Maryland

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Peitao Peng NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, Maryland

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Wanqiu Wang NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, Maryland

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Dong Si National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

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Xiaolong Jia National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

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Ming Zhao NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey

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Gabriel A. Vecchi NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey

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Timothy E. LaRow Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida

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Young-Kwon Lim Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, I. M. Systems Group, Greenbelt, Maryland

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Siegfried D. Schubert Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland

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Suzana J. Camargo Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York

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Naomi Henderson Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York

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Jeffrey A. Jonas Center for Climate System Research, Columbia University, New York, New York
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York

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Kevin J. E. Walsh School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia

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Print Publication:
15 Sep 2016
Collections:
U.S. CLIVAR - Hurricanes and Climate
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0720.1
Page(s):
6401–6423
Restricted access

Abstract

An assessment of simulations of the interannual variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and its association with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as a subsequent diagnosis for possible causes of model biases generated from simulated large-scale climate conditions, are documented in the paper. The model experiments are carried out by the Hurricane Work Group under the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Research Program (CLIVAR) using five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members forced by the observed sea surface temperature and spanning the 28-yr period from 1982 to 2009. The results show GISS and GFDL model ensemble means best simulate the interannual variability of TCs, and the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) follows. Also, the MME has the closest climate mean annual number of WNP TCs and the smallest root-mean-square error to the observation.

Most GCMs can simulate the interannual variability of WNP TCs well, with stronger TC activities during two types of El Niño—namely, eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño—and weaker activity during La Niña. However, none of the models capture the differences in TC activity between EP and CP El Niño as are shown in observations. The inability of models to distinguish the differences in TC activities between the two types of El Niño events may be due to the bias of the models in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Niño.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Hui Wang, NOAA/Climate Prediction Center, 5830 University Research Court, NCWCP, College Park, MD 20740. E-mail: hui.wang@noaa.gov

This article is included in the US CLIVAR Hurricanes and Climate special collection.

Abstract

An assessment of simulations of the interannual variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and its association with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as a subsequent diagnosis for possible causes of model biases generated from simulated large-scale climate conditions, are documented in the paper. The model experiments are carried out by the Hurricane Work Group under the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Research Program (CLIVAR) using five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members forced by the observed sea surface temperature and spanning the 28-yr period from 1982 to 2009. The results show GISS and GFDL model ensemble means best simulate the interannual variability of TCs, and the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) follows. Also, the MME has the closest climate mean annual number of WNP TCs and the smallest root-mean-square error to the observation.

Most GCMs can simulate the interannual variability of WNP TCs well, with stronger TC activities during two types of El Niño—namely, eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño—and weaker activity during La Niña. However, none of the models capture the differences in TC activity between EP and CP El Niño as are shown in observations. The inability of models to distinguish the differences in TC activities between the two types of El Niño events may be due to the bias of the models in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Niño.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Hui Wang, NOAA/Climate Prediction Center, 5830 University Research Court, NCWCP, College Park, MD 20740. E-mail: hui.wang@noaa.gov

This article is included in the US CLIVAR Hurricanes and Climate special collection.

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