The Impact of Regional Arctic Sea Ice Loss on Atmospheric Circulation and the NAO

Rasmus A. Pedersen Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, and Climate and Arctic Research, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark

Search for other papers by Rasmus A. Pedersen in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Ivana Cvijanovic Atmospheric, Earth, and Energy Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California

Search for other papers by Ivana Cvijanovic in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Peter L. Langen Climate and Arctic Research, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark

Search for other papers by Peter L. Langen in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
Bo M. Vinther Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark

Search for other papers by Bo M. Vinther in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

Reduction of the Arctic sea ice cover can affect the atmospheric circulation and thus impact the climate beyond the Arctic. The atmospheric response may, however, vary with the geographical location of sea ice loss. The atmospheric sensitivity to the location of sea ice loss is studied using a general circulation model in a configuration that allows combination of a prescribed sea ice cover and an active mixed layer ocean. This hybrid setup makes it possible to simulate the isolated impact of sea ice loss and provides a more complete response compared to experiments with fixed sea surface temperatures. Three investigated sea ice scenarios with ice loss in different regions all exhibit substantial near-surface warming, which peaks over the area of ice loss. The maximum warming is found during winter, delayed compared to the maximum sea ice reduction. The wintertime response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation shows a nonuniform sensitivity to the location of sea ice reduction. While all three scenarios exhibit decreased zonal winds related to high-latitude geopotential height increases, the magnitudes and locations of the anomalies vary between the simulations. Investigation of the North Atlantic Oscillation reveals a high sensitivity to the location of the ice loss. The northern center of action exhibits clear shifts in response to the different sea ice reductions. Sea ice loss in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic cause westward and eastward shifts, respectively.

Denotes Open Access content.

Corresponding author address: Rasmus A. Pedersen, Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, DK-2100, Copenhagen, Denmark. E-mail: anker@nbi.ku.dk

Abstract

Reduction of the Arctic sea ice cover can affect the atmospheric circulation and thus impact the climate beyond the Arctic. The atmospheric response may, however, vary with the geographical location of sea ice loss. The atmospheric sensitivity to the location of sea ice loss is studied using a general circulation model in a configuration that allows combination of a prescribed sea ice cover and an active mixed layer ocean. This hybrid setup makes it possible to simulate the isolated impact of sea ice loss and provides a more complete response compared to experiments with fixed sea surface temperatures. Three investigated sea ice scenarios with ice loss in different regions all exhibit substantial near-surface warming, which peaks over the area of ice loss. The maximum warming is found during winter, delayed compared to the maximum sea ice reduction. The wintertime response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation shows a nonuniform sensitivity to the location of sea ice reduction. While all three scenarios exhibit decreased zonal winds related to high-latitude geopotential height increases, the magnitudes and locations of the anomalies vary between the simulations. Investigation of the North Atlantic Oscillation reveals a high sensitivity to the location of the ice loss. The northern center of action exhibits clear shifts in response to the different sea ice reductions. Sea ice loss in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic cause westward and eastward shifts, respectively.

Denotes Open Access content.

Corresponding author address: Rasmus A. Pedersen, Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, DK-2100, Copenhagen, Denmark. E-mail: anker@nbi.ku.dk
Save
  • Bader, J., M. D. S. Mesquita, K. I. Hodges, N. Keenlyside, S. Østerhus, and M. Miles, 2011: A review on Northern Hemisphere sea-ice, storminess and the North Atlantic Oscillation: Observations and projected changes. Atmos. Res., 101, 809834, doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.04.007.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Barnes, E. A., 2013: Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 47344739, doi:10.1002/grl.50880.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Barton, N. P., S. A. Klein, and J. S. Boyle, 2014: On the contribution of longwave radiation to global climate model biases in Arctic lower tropospheric stability. J. Climate, 27, 72507269, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00126.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Blüthgen, J., R. Gerdes, and M. Werner, 2012: Atmospheric response to the extreme Arctic sea ice conditions in 2007. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L02707, doi:10.1029/2011GL050486.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Boé, J., A. Hall, and X. Qu, 2009: Current GCMs’ unrealistic negative feedback in the Arctic. J. Climate, 22, 46824695, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2885.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Caldeira, K., and I. Cvijanovic, 2014: Estimating the contribution of sea ice response to climate sensitivity in a climate model. J. Climate, 27, 85978607, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00042.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chiang, J. C. H., and C. M. Bitz, 2005: Influence of high latitude ice cover on the marine intertropical convergence zone. Climate Dyn., 25, 477496, doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0040-5.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cohen, J., J. Jones, J. C. Furtado, and E. Tziperman, 2013: Warm Arctic, cold continents: A common pattern related to Arctic sea ice melt, snow advance, and extreme winter weather. Oceanography, 26, 150160, doi:10.5670/oceanog.2013.70.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cvijanovic, I., and J. C. H. Chiang, 2013: Global energy budget changes to high latitude North Atlantic cooling and the tropical ITCZ response. Climate Dyn., 40, 14351452, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1482-1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cvijanovic, I., and K. Caldeira, 2015: Atmospheric impacts of sea ice decline in CO2 induced global warming. Climate Dyn., 44, 11731186, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2489-1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Danabasoglu, G., and P. R. Gent, 2009: Equilibrium climate sensitivity: Is it accurate to use a slab ocean model? J. Climate, 22, 24942499, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2596.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Deser, C., 2000: On the teleconnectivity of the “Arctic Oscillation.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 779782, doi:10.1029/1999GL010945.

  • Deser, C., G. Magnusdottir, R. Saravanan, and A. Phillips, 2004: The effects of North Atlantic SST and sea ice anomalies on the winter circulation in CCM3. Part II: Direct and indirect components of the response. J. Climate, 17, 877889, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0877:TEONAS>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Deser, C., R. Tomas, M. A. Alexander, and D. Lawrence, 2010: The seasonal atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in the late twenty-first century. J. Climate, 23, 333351, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3053.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dong, B., R. T. Sutton, and T. Woollings, 2011: Changes of interannual NAO variability in response to greenhouse gases forcing. Climate Dyn., 37, 16211641, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0936-6.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Efron, B., and G. Gong, 1983: A leisurely look at the bootstrap, the jackknife, and cross-validation. Amer. Stat., 37, 3648.

  • Francis, J. A., and S. J. Vavrus, 2012: Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L06801, doi:10.1029/2012GL051000.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gent, P. R., and Coauthors, 2011: The Community Climate System Model version 4. J. Climate, 24, 49734991, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Greeves, C. Z., V. D. Pope, R. A. Stratton, and G. M. Martin, 2007: Representation of Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks in climate models. Climate Dyn., 28, 683702, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0205-x.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hilmer, M., and T. Jung, 2000: Evidence for a recent change in the link between the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic sea ice export. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 989992, doi:10.1029/1999GL010944.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hu, Z. Z., and Z. Wu, 2004: The intensification and shift of the annual North Atlantic Oscillation in a global warming scenario simulation. Tellus, 56A, 112124, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2004.00050.x.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hurrell, J. W., 1995: Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional temperatures and precipitation. Science, 269, 676679, doi:10.1126/science.269.5224.676.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hurrell, J. W., and C. Deser, 2010: North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Mar. Syst., 79, 231244, doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.11.002.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hurrell, J. W., J. J. Hack, B. A. Boville, D. L. Williamson, and J. T. Kiehl, 1998: The dynamical simulation of the NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3). J. Climate, 11, 12071236, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<1207:TDSOTN>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hurrell, J. W., Y. Kushnir, G. Ottersen, and M. Visbeck, 2003: An overview of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact, Geophys. Monogr., Vol. 134, Amer. Geophys. Union, 1–35.

  • Hurrell, J. W., and Coauthors, 2015: The climate data guide: Hurrell North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index (PC-based). Accessed 25 March 2015. [Available online at https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/hurrell-north-atlantic-oscillation-nao-index-pc-based.]

  • Jaiser, R., K. Dethloff, D. Handorf, A. Rinke, and J. Cohen, 2012: Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation. Tellus, 64A, 11595, doi:10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.11595.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jung, T., M. Hilmer, E. Ruprecht, S. Kleppek, S. K. Gulev, and O. Zolina, 2003: Characteristics of the recent eastward shift of interannual NAO variability. J. Climate, 16, 33713382, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3371:COTRES>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kay, J. E., M. M. Holland, C. M. Bitz, E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, A. Gettelman, A. Conley, and D. A. Bailey, 2012: The influence of local feedbacks and northward heat transport on the equilibrium Arctic climate response to increased greenhouse gas forcing. J. Climate, 25, 54335450, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00622.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kutzbach, J. E., 1970: Large-scale features of monthly mean Northern Hemisphere anomaly maps of sea-level pressure. Mon. Wea. Rev., 98, 708716, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1970)098<0708:LSFOMM>2.3.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kvamstø, N. G., P. Skeie, and D. B. Stephenson, 2004: Impact of Labrador sea-ice extent on the North Atlantic Oscillation. Int. J. Climatol., 24, 603612, doi:10.1002/joc.1015.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lawrence, D. M., and Coauthors, 2011: Parameterization improvements and functional and structural advances in version 4 of the Community Land Model. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 3, M03001, doi:10.1029/2011MS000045.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Li, C., and D. S. Battisti, 2008: Reduced Atlantic storminess during last glacial maximum: Evidence from a coupled climate model. J. Climate, 21, 35613579, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI2166.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Magnusdottir, G., C. Deser, and R. Saravanan, 2004: The effects of North Atlantic SST and sea ice anomalies on the winter circulation in CCM3. Part I: Main features and storm track characteristics of the response. J. Climate, 17, 857876, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0857:TEONAS>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Meier, W., F. Fetterer, M. Savoie, S. Mallory, R. Duerr, and J. C. Stroeve, 2013: NOAA/NSIDC climate data record of passive microwave sea ice concentration, version 2. National Snow and Ice Data Center, accessed 8 July 2015, doi:10.7265/N55M63M1.

  • Neale, R. B., and Coauthors, 2010: Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 4.0). NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-485+STR, 212 pp. [Available online at http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/ccsm4.0/cam/docs/description/cam4_desc.pdf.]

  • Neale, R. B., J. Richter, S. Park, P. H. Lauritzen, S. J. Vavrus, P. J. Rasch, and M. Zhang, 2013: The mean climate of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) in forced SST and fully coupled experiments. J. Climate, 26, 51505168, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00236.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Outten, S. D., and I. Esau, 2012: A link between Arctic sea ice and recent cooling trends over Eurasia. Climatic Change, 110, 10691075, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0334-z.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Peings, Y., and G. Magnusdottir, 2014: Response of the wintertime Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation to current and projected Arctic sea ice decline: A numerical study with CAM5. J. Climate, 27, 244264, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00272.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Peixóto, J. P., and A. H. Oort, 1984: Physics of climate. Rev. Mod. Phys., 56, 365, doi:10.1103/RevModPhys.56.365.

  • Peterson, K. A., J. Lu, and R. J. Greatbatch, 2003: Evidence of nonlinear dynamics in the eastward shift of the NAO. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1030, doi:10.1029/2002GL015585.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Petoukhov, V., and V. A. Semenov, 2010: A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D21111, doi:10.1029/2009JD013568.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rinke, A., K. Dethloff, W. Dorn, D. Handorf, and J. C. Moore, 2013: Simulated Arctic atmospheric feedbacks associated with late summer sea ice anomalies. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 76987714, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50584.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Screen, J. A., and I. Simmonds, 2010: The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification. Nature, 464, 13341337, doi:10.1038/nature09051.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Screen, J. A., and I. Simmonds, 2013: Exploring links between Arctic amplification and mid-latitude weather. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 959964, doi:10.1002/grl.50174.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Screen, J. A., I. Simmonds, C. Deser, and R. Tomas, 2013: The atmospheric response to three decades of observed Arctic sea ice loss. J. Climate, 26, 12301248, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00063.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Seierstad, I. A., and J. Bader, 2009: Impact of a projected future Arctic sea ice reduction on extratropical storminess and the NAO. Climate Dyn., 33, 937943, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0463-x.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Serreze, M. C., and R. G. Barry, 2011: Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification: A research synthesis. Global Planet. Change, 77, 8596, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.03.004.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Serreze, M. C., A. P. Barrett, J. C. Stroeve, D. N. Kindig, and M. M. Holland, 2009: The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification. Cryosphere, 3, 1119, doi:10.5194/tc-3-11-2009.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Serreze, M. C., A. P. Barrett, and J. J. Cassano, 2011: Circulation and surface controls on the lower tropospheric air temperature field of the Arctic. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D07104, doi:10.1029/2010JD015127.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sewall, J. O., 2005: Precipitation shifts over western North America as a result of declining arctic sea ice cover: The coupled system response. Earth Interact., 9, 123, doi:10.1175/EI171.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Stroeve, J. C., V. M. Kattsov, A. P. Barrett, M. C. Serreze, T. Pavlova, M. M. Holland, and W. N. Meier, 2012a: Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L16502, doi:10.1029/2012GL052676.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Stroeve, J. C., M. C. Serreze, M. M. Holland, J. E. Kay, J. Malanik, and A. P. Barrett, 2012b: The Arctic’s rapidly shrinking sea ice cover: A research synthesis. Climatic Change, 110, 10051027, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0101-1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Strong, C., and G. Magnusdottir, 2011: Dependence of NAO variability on coupling with sea ice. Climate Dyn., 36, 16811689, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0752-z.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tang, Q., X. Zhang, X. Yang, and J. A. Francis, 2013: Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss. Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 014036, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014036.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ulbrich, U., and M. Christoph, 1999: A shift of the NAO and increasing storm track activity over Europe due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. Climate Dyn., 15, 551559, doi:10.1007/s003820050299.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Vaughan, D. G., and Coauthors, 2013: Observations: Cryosphere. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T.F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 317–382. [Available online at https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter04_FINAL.pdf.]

  • Vihma, T., 2014: Effects of Arctic sea ice decline on weather and climate: A review. Surv. Geophys., 35, 11751214, doi:10.1007/s10712-014-9284-0.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • von Storch, H., and F. W. Zwiers, 2001: Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. Cambridge University Press, 494 pp.

  • Wallace, J. M., I. M. Held, D. W. J. Thompson, K. E. Trenberth, and J. E. Walsh, 2014: Global Warming and Winter Weather. Science, 343, 729730, doi:10.1126/science.343.6172.729.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, Y.-H., G. Magnusdottir, H. Stern, X. Tian, and Y. Yu, 2014: Uncertainty estimates of the EOF-derived North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Climate, 27, 12901301, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00230.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wanner, H., S. Brönnimann, C. Casty, D. Gyalistras, J. Luterbacher, C. Schmutz, D. B. Stephenson, and E. Xoplaki, 2001: North Atlantic Oscillation—concepts and studies. Surv. Geophys., 22, 321381, doi:10.1023/A:1014217317898.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yang, S., and J. H. Christensen, 2012: Arctic sea ice reduction and European cold winters in CMIP5 climate change experiments. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20707, doi:10.1029/2012GL053338.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, Y., D. J. Seidel, J.-C. Golaz, C. Deser, and R. A. Tomas, 2011: Climatological characteristics of Arctic and Antarctic surface-based inversions. J. Climate, 24, 51675186, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4004.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 2323 463 51
PDF Downloads 1212 144 10