Editorial Type:
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Article Type:
Research Article

Investigating Possible Arctic–Midlatitude Teleconnections in a Linear Framework

Raymond Sellevold Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway

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Stefan Sobolowski Uni Research Climate, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway

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Camille Li Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway

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Print Publication:
15 Oct 2016
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0902.1
Page(s):
7329–7343
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Abstract

There is an ongoing debate over whether accelerated Arctic warming [Arctic amplification (AA)] is altering the large-scale circulation responsible for the anomalous weather experienced by midlatitude regions in recent years. Among the proposed mechanisms is the idea that local processes associated with sea ice loss heat the lower troposphere at high latitudes, thus weakening the equator-to-pole temperature gradient and driving changes in quasi-stationary waves, the midlatitude jets, and storm tracks. It is further hypothesized that these circulation changes are conducive to persistent weather patterns. Because of the short observational record and large atmospheric internal variability, it is difficult to identify robust relationships and infer causality. Here, a simplified, linear, steady-state model is used to investigate the direct response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation to thermal forcing in the Arctic. The results suggest that there is a weak midlatitude circulation response to an idealized, but representative, Arctic heating perturbation. Further, the stationary wave responses are shown to be well within the bounds of internal variability. A midlatitude response is excited if the idealized heating penetrates up to the tropopause. Such deep, persistent heating is not observed on average during the AA period but does suggest a pathway for Arctic–midlatitude linkages under specific conditions. This study adds to the growing body of work suggesting that warming in the lower troposphere associated with Arctic amplification is not currently a direct driver of anomalous midlatitude circulation changes.

Corresponding author address: Stefan Sobolowski, Uni Research Climate, Damsgårdgaten 112, 5008, Bergen, Norway. E-mail: stefan.sobolowski@uni.no

Abstract

There is an ongoing debate over whether accelerated Arctic warming [Arctic amplification (AA)] is altering the large-scale circulation responsible for the anomalous weather experienced by midlatitude regions in recent years. Among the proposed mechanisms is the idea that local processes associated with sea ice loss heat the lower troposphere at high latitudes, thus weakening the equator-to-pole temperature gradient and driving changes in quasi-stationary waves, the midlatitude jets, and storm tracks. It is further hypothesized that these circulation changes are conducive to persistent weather patterns. Because of the short observational record and large atmospheric internal variability, it is difficult to identify robust relationships and infer causality. Here, a simplified, linear, steady-state model is used to investigate the direct response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation to thermal forcing in the Arctic. The results suggest that there is a weak midlatitude circulation response to an idealized, but representative, Arctic heating perturbation. Further, the stationary wave responses are shown to be well within the bounds of internal variability. A midlatitude response is excited if the idealized heating penetrates up to the tropopause. Such deep, persistent heating is not observed on average during the AA period but does suggest a pathway for Arctic–midlatitude linkages under specific conditions. This study adds to the growing body of work suggesting that warming in the lower troposphere associated with Arctic amplification is not currently a direct driver of anomalous midlatitude circulation changes.

Corresponding author address: Stefan Sobolowski, Uni Research Climate, Damsgårdgaten 112, 5008, Bergen, Norway. E-mail: stefan.sobolowski@uni.no
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