Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Impacts of ENSO on Philippine Tropical Cyclone Activity

Irenea L. Corporal-Lodangco School of Meteorology, and Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma

Search for other papers by Irenea L. Corporal-Lodangco in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Lance M. Leslie School of Meteorology, and Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma

Search for other papers by Lance M. Leslie in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
, and
Peter J. Lamb Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma

Search for other papers by Peter J. Lamb in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
01 Mar 2016
Collections:
Peter J. Lamb Special Collection: Climate Variability and Its Impacts
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00723.1
Page(s):
1877–1897
Restricted access

Abstract

This study investigates the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contribution to Philippine tropical cyclone (TC) variability, for a range of quarterly TC metrics. Philippine TC activity is found to depend on both ENSO quarter and phase. TC counts during El Niño phases differ significantly from neutral phases in all quarters, whereas neutral and La Niña phases differ only in January–March and July–September. Differences in landfalls between neutral and El Niño phases are significant in January–March and October–December and in January–March for neutral and La Niña phases. El Niño and La Niña landfalls are significantly different in April–June and October–December. Philippine neutral and El Niño TC genesis cover broader longitude–latitude ranges with similar long tracks, originating farther east in the western North Pacific. In El Niño phases, the mean eastward displacement of genesis locations and more recurving TCs reduce Philippine TC frequencies. Proximity of La Niña TC genesis to the Philippines and straight-moving tracks in April–June and October–December increase TC frequencies and landfalls. Neutral and El Niño accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) values are above average, except in April–June of El Niño phases. Above-average quarterly ACE in neutral years is due to increased TC frequencies, days, and intensities, whereas above-average El Niño ACE in July–September is due to increased TC days and intensities. Below-average La Niña ACE results from fewer TCs and shorter life cycles. Longer TC durations produce slightly above-average TC days in July–September El Niño phases. Fewer TCs than neutral years, as well as shorter TC durations, imply less TC days in La Niña phases. However, above-average TC days occur in October–December as a result of higher TC frequencies.

Corresponding author address: Irenea L. Corporal-Lodangco, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Norman, OK 73072. E-mail: ireneacl@ou.edu

This article is included in the In Honor of Peter J. Lamb special collection.

Abstract

This study investigates the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contribution to Philippine tropical cyclone (TC) variability, for a range of quarterly TC metrics. Philippine TC activity is found to depend on both ENSO quarter and phase. TC counts during El Niño phases differ significantly from neutral phases in all quarters, whereas neutral and La Niña phases differ only in January–March and July–September. Differences in landfalls between neutral and El Niño phases are significant in January–March and October–December and in January–March for neutral and La Niña phases. El Niño and La Niña landfalls are significantly different in April–June and October–December. Philippine neutral and El Niño TC genesis cover broader longitude–latitude ranges with similar long tracks, originating farther east in the western North Pacific. In El Niño phases, the mean eastward displacement of genesis locations and more recurving TCs reduce Philippine TC frequencies. Proximity of La Niña TC genesis to the Philippines and straight-moving tracks in April–June and October–December increase TC frequencies and landfalls. Neutral and El Niño accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) values are above average, except in April–June of El Niño phases. Above-average quarterly ACE in neutral years is due to increased TC frequencies, days, and intensities, whereas above-average El Niño ACE in July–September is due to increased TC days and intensities. Below-average La Niña ACE results from fewer TCs and shorter life cycles. Longer TC durations produce slightly above-average TC days in July–September El Niño phases. Fewer TCs than neutral years, as well as shorter TC durations, imply less TC days in La Niña phases. However, above-average TC days occur in October–December as a result of higher TC frequencies.

Corresponding author address: Irenea L. Corporal-Lodangco, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Norman, OK 73072. E-mail: ireneacl@ou.edu

This article is included in the In Honor of Peter J. Lamb special collection.

Save
Cover Journal of Climate
Journal of Climate

  • Barnston, A. G., M. Chelliah, and S. B. Goldenberg, 1997: Documentation of a highly ENSO-related SST region in the equatorial Pacific. Atmos.–Ocean, 35, 367–383, doi:10.1080/07055900.1997.9649597.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bell, G. D., and Coauthors, 2000: Climate assessment for 1999. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81 (6), S1–S50, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2000)81[s1:CAF]2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bjerknes, J., 1969: Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 97, 163–172, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1969)097<0163:ATFTEP>2.3.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Briegel, L. M., and W. M. Frank, 1997: Large-scale influences on tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1397–1413, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<1397:LSIOTC>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Camargo, S. J., and A. H. Sobel, 2005: Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO. J. Climate, 18, 2996–3006, doi:10.1175/JCLI3457.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Camargo, S. J., K. A. Emanuel, and A. H. Sobel, 2007a: Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis. J. Climate, 20, 4819–4834, doi:10.1175/JCLI4282.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Camargo, S. J., A. W. Robertson, S. J. Gaffney, P. Smyth, and M. Ghil, 2007b: Cluster analysis of typhoon tracks. Part I: General properties. J. Climate, 20, 3635–3653, doi:10.1175/JCLI4188.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chan, J. C. L., 1985: Tropical cyclone activity in the northwest Pacific in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 599–606, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<0599:TCAITN>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chan, J. C. L., 2000: Tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Niño and La Niña events. J. Climate, 13, 2960–2972, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2960:TCAOTW>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chan, J. C. L., and K. S. Liu, 2004: Global warming and western North Pacific typhoon activity from an observational perspective. J. Climate, 17, 4590–4602, doi:10.1175/3240.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chen, T. C., S. P. Weng, N. Yamazaki, and S. Kiehne, 1998: Interannual variation in the tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1080–1090, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<1080:IVITTC>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chen, T. C., S. Y. Wang, M. C. Yen, and W. A. Gallus Jr., 2004: Role of the monsoon gyre in the interannual variation of tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 776–785, doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0776:ROTMGI>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chia, H. H., and C. F. Ropelewski, 2002: The interannual variability in the genesis location of tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific. J. Climate, 15, 2934–2944, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2934:TIVITG>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chu, P.-S., 2004: ENSO and tropical cyclone activity . Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present, and Future, R. J. Murnane and K.-B. Liu, Eds., Columbia University Press, 297–332.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Clark, J. D., and P. S. Chu, 2002: Interannual variation of tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 80, 403–418, doi:10.2151/jmsj.80.403.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Colbert, A. J., B. J. Soden, and B. P. Kirtman, 2015: The impact of natural and anthropogenic climate change on western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks. J. Climate, 28, 1806–1823, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00100.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Corporal-Lodangco, I. L., 2014: Variability of tropical cyclones in the Philippines. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Oklahoma, 175 pp.

  • Dong, K., 1988: El Niño and tropical cyclone frequency in the Australian region and the northwest Pacific. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 36, 219–225.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dong, K., and G. J. Holland, 1994: A global view of the relationship between ENSO and tropical cyclone frequencies. Acta Meteor. Sin., 8, 19–29.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Elsner, J. B., and K. B. Liu, 2003: Examining the ENSO-typhoon hypothesis. Climate Res., 25, 43–54, doi:10.3354/cr025043.

  • Frank, W. M., 1987: Tropical cyclone formation . A Global View of Tropical Cyclones, R. Elsberry, Ed., Office of Naval Research, 53–90.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Fudeyasu, H., S. Iizuka, and T. Matsuura, 2006: Impact of ENSO on landfall characteristics of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific during the summer monsoon season. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L21815, doi:10.1029/2006GL027449.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gray, W. M., 1968: Global view of the origin of tropical disturbance and storms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 96, 669–700, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1968)096<0669:GVOTOO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gray, W. M., 1979: Hurricanes: Their formation, structure and likely role in the tropical circulation . Meteorology over the Tropical Oceans, D. B. Shaw, Ed., Royal Meteorological Society, 155–218.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gray, W. M., 1985: Tropical cyclone global climatology. WMO Tech. Doc. WMO/TD-72, World Meteorological Organization, 145 pp.

  • Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437–471, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kim, J. H., C. H. Ho, H. S. Kim, C. H. Sui, and S. K. Park, 2008: Systematic variation of summertime tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific in relation to the Madden–Julian oscillation. J. Climate, 21, 1171–1191, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1493.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kimberlain, T. B., 1999: The effects of ENSO on North Pacific and North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Preprints, 23rd Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Boston, MA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 250–253.

  • Kistler, R., and Coauthors, 2001: The NCEP–NCAR 50–Year Reanalysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 247–267, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<0247:TNNYRM>2.3.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kubota, H., and J. C. L. Chan, 2009: Interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone landfall in the Philippines from 1902 to 2005. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L12802, doi:10.1029/2009GL038108.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lander, M. A., 1993: Comments on “A GCM simulation of the relationship between tropical storm formation and ENSO.” Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 2137–2143, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<2137:COGSOT>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lander, M. A., 1994: An exploratory analysis of the relationship between tropical storm formation in the western North Pacific and ENSO. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 636–651, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<0636:AEAOTR>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lander, M. A., 1996: Specific tropical cyclone tracks and unusual tropical cyclone motions associated with a reverse-oriented monsoon trough in the western North Pacific. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 170–186, doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1996)011<0170:STCTTA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lighthill, J., and Coauthors, 1994: Global climate change and tropical cyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75, 2147–2157.

  • Lowry, R., 1999: Concept and application of inferential statistics. [Available online at http://vassarstats.net/textbook/.]

  • Lyon, B., and S. J. Camargo, 2009: The seasonally varying influence of ENSO on rainfall and tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines. Climate Dyn., 32, 125–141, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0380-z.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • McBride, J. L., 1996: Tropical cyclone formation. Global perspectives on tropical cyclones, WMO Tech. Doc. 693, 63–105.

  • Pudov, V. D., and S. A. Petrichenko, 1998: Relationship between the evolution of tropical cyclones in the northwestern Pacific and El Niño. Oceanology, 38, 447–452.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Pudov, V. D., and S. A. Petrichenko, 2001: 1997–1998 El Niño and tropical cyclone genesis in the northwestern Pacific. Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys., 37, 576–583.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rasmusson, E. M., and T. H. Carpenter, 1982: Variation in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 354–384, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<0354:VITSST>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Sadler, J. C., 1967: On the origin of tropical vortex. Proc. Working Panel on Tropical Dynamic Meteorology, Norfolk, VA, Naval Weather Research Facility, 39–75.

  • Saunders, M. A., R. E. Chandler, C. J. Merchant, and F. P. Roberts, 2000: Atlantic hurricanes and NW Pacific typhoons: ENSO spatial impacts on occurrence and landfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 1147–1150, doi:10.1029/1999GL010948.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Smith, T. M., and R. W. Reynolds, 2003: Extended reconstruction of global sea surface temperature based on COADS data (1854–1997). J. Climate, 16, 1495–1510, doi:10.1175/1520-0442-16.10.1495.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Torrence, C., and G. P. Compo, 1998: A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 61–78, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0061:APGTWA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Vincent, D. G., and J. M. Schrage, 1995: Thermodynamic and Moisture Variables. Vol. 2. Climatology of the TOGA-COARE and Adjacent Regions (1985–1990), Purdue University, 123 pp.

  • Wang, B., and J. C. L. Chan, 2002: How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific. J. Climate, 15, 1643–1658, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1643:HSEEAT>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Wu, G., and N. C. Lau, 1992: A GCM simulation of the relationship between tropical storm formation and ENSO. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 958–977, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1992)120<0958:AGSOTR>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Wu, L., and B. Wang, 2004: Assessing impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone tracks. J. Climate, 17, 1686–1698, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1686:AIOGWO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Wu, M. C., W. L. Chang, and W. M. Leung, 2004: Impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation events on tropical cyclone landfalling activity in the western North Pacific. J. Climate, 17, 1419–1428, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1419:IOENOE>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Yonekura, E., and T. M. Hall, 2011: A statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks in the western North Pacific with ENSO-dependent cyclogenesis. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol, 50, 1725–1739, doi:10.1175/2011JAMC2617.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Zhao, H., L. Wu, and R. Wang, 2014: Decadal variations of intense tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific during 1948–2010. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 31, 57–65, doi:10.1007/s00376-013-3011-5.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 3211 1131 85
PDF Downloads 2443 825 54