• Alexander, M. A., , U. S. Bhatt, , J. E. Walsh, , M. S. Timlin, , J. S. Miller, , and J. D. Scott, 2004: The atmospheric response to realistic Arctic sea ice anomalies in an AGCM during winter. J. Climate, 17, 890905, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0890:TARTRA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ambrizzi, T., , and B. J. Hoskins, 1997: Stationary Rossby wave propagation in a baroclinic atmosphere. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 919928, doi:10.1002/qj.49712354007.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ambrizzi, T., , B. J. Hoskins, , and H. H. Hsu, 1995: Rossby wave propagation and teleconnection patterns in the austral winter. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 36613672, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1995)052<3661:RWPATP>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Arzel, O., , T. Fichefet, , and H. Goosse, 2006: Sea ice evolution over the 20th and 21st centuries as simulated by current AOGCMs. Ocean Modell., 12, 401415, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2005.08.002.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Branstator, G., 1983: Horizontal energy propagation in a barotropic atmosphere with meridional and zonal structure. J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 16891708, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1983)040<1689:HEPIAB>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cavalieri, D. J., , and C. L. Parkinson, 2012: Arctic sea ice variability and trends, 1979–2010. Cryosphere, 6, 881889, doi:10.5194/tc-6-881-2012.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chen, M., , P. Xie, , J. E. Janowiak, , and P. A. Arkin, 2002: Global land precipitation: A 50-yr monthly analysis based on gauge observations. J. Hydrometeor., 3, 249266, doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2002)003<0249:GLPAYM>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chi, Y., , J. He, , and Z. Wu, 2005: Features analysis of the different precipitation periods in the pre-flood season in South China (in Chinese). J. Nanjing Inst. Meteor., 28, 163171.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Compo, G. P., , J. S. Whitaker, , and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 2006: Feasibility of a 100-year reanalysis using only surface pressure data. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 175190, doi:10.1175/BAMS-87-2-175.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Compo, G. P., and et al. , 2011: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 128, doi:10.1002/qj.776.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Deser, C., , G. Magnusdottir, , R. Saravanan, , and A. Phillips, 2004: The effects of North Atlantic SST and sea ice anomalies on the winter circulation in CCM3. Part II: Direct and indirect components of the response. J. Climate, 17, 877889, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0877:TEONAS>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Deser, C., , R. Tomas, , M. Alexander, , and D. Lawrence, 2010: The seasonal atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in the late twenty-first century. J. Climate, 23, 333351, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3053.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Feng, J., , and J. P. Li, 2011: Influence of El Niño Modoki on spring rainfall over south China. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D13102, doi:10.1029/2010JD015160.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ghatak, D., , A. Frei, , G. Gong, , J. Stroeve, , and D. Robinson, 2010: On the emergence of an Arctic amplification signal in terrestrial Arctic snow extent. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D24105, doi:10.1029/2010JD014007.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Graversen, R. G., , T. Mauritsen, , S. Drijfhout, , M. Tjernstrom, , and S. Martensson, 2011: Warm winds from the Pacific caused extensive Arctic sea-ice melt in summer 2007. Climate Dyn., 36, 21032112, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0809-z.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hall, N. M. J., 2000: A simple GCM based on dry dynamics and constant forcing. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 15571572, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2000)057<1557:ASGBOD>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • He, J., , Z. Wu, , Z. Jiang, , and G. Han, 2007: “Climate effect” of the northeast cold vortex and its influences on meiyu. Chin. Sci. Bull., 52, 671679, doi:10.1007/s11434-007-0053-z.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • He, J., , P. Zhao, , C. Zhu, , R. Zhang, , X. Tang, , L. Chen, , and X. Zhou, 2008: Discussion of some problems as to the East Asian subtropical monsoon. Acta Meteor. Sin., 22, 419434.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Holland, M. M., , C. M. Bitz, , and B. Tremblay, 2006: Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L23503, doi:10.1029/2006GL028024.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Holland, M. M., , M. C. Serreze, , and J. Stroeve, 2010: The sea ice mass budget of the Arctic and its future change as simulated by coupled climate models. Climate Dyn., 34, 185200, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0493-4.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Honda, M., , J. Inoue, , and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hoskins, B. J., , and A. J. Simmons, 1975: A multi-layer spectral model and the semi-implicit method. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 101, 637655, doi:10.1002/qj.49710142918.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hoskins, B. J., , and D. J. Karoly, 1981: The steady linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing. J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 11791196, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1981)038<1179:TSLROA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hoskins, B. J., , and T. Ambrizzi, 1993: Rossby wave propagation on a realistic longitudinally varying flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 16611671, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1993)050<1661:RWPOAR>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jin, R., , W. Li, , B. Zhang, , and C. Yan, 2012: A study of the relationship between East Asia subtropical westerly jet and abnormal meiyu in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River (in Chinese). Chin. J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 722732.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Karoly, D. J., 1983: Rossby wave propagation in a barotropic atmosphere. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 7, 111125, doi:10.1016/0377-0265(83)90013-1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kug, J. S., , J. H. Jeong, , Y. S. Jang, , B. M. Kim, , C. K. Folland, , S. K. Min, , and S. W. Son, 2015: Two distinct influences of Arctic warming on cold winters over North America and East Asia. Nat. Geosci., 8, 759762, doi:10.1038/ngeo2517.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kumar, A., and et al. , 2010: Contribution of sea ice loss to Arctic amplification. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L21701, doi:10.1029/2010GL045022.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Li, J. P., , and Z. Wu, 2012: Importance of autumn Arctic sea ice to northern winter snowfall. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, E1898, doi:10.1073/pnas.1205075109.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Li, J. P., , Z. Wu, , Z. Jiang, , and J. He, 2010: Can global warming strengthen the East Asian summer monsoon? J. Climate, 23, 66966705, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3434.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Li, J. P., and et al. , 2013: Progress in air–land–sea interactions in Asia and their role in global and Asian climate change. Chin. J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 518538.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Li, L., , and T. R. Nathan, 1997: Effects of low-frequency tropical forcing on intraseasonal tropical–extratropical interactions. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 332346, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1997)054<0332:EOLFTF>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Li, Y. J., , and J. P. Li, 2012: Propagation of planetary waves in the horizontal non-uniform basic flow (in Chinese). Chin. J. Geophys., 55, 361371.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Li, Y. J., , J. P. Li, , F.-F. Jin, , and S. Zhao, 2015: Interhemispheric propagation of stationary Rossby waves in the horizontally nonuniform background flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 32333256, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-14-0239.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lighthill, J., 1978: Waves in Fluids. Cambridge University Press, 504 pp.

  • Lin, H., , and Z. Wu, 2011: Contribution of the autumn Tibetan Plateau snow cover to seasonal prediction of North American winter temperature. J. Climate, 24, 28012813, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3889.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lin, H., , and Z. Wu, 2012a: Contribution of Tibetan Plateau snow cover to the extreme winter conditions of 2009/10. Atmos.–Ocean, 50, 8694, doi:10.1080/07055900.2011.649036.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lin, H., , and Z. Wu, 2012b: Indian summer monsoon influence on the climate in the North Atlantic–European region. Climate Dyn., 39, 303311, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1286-8.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • LinHo, L.-H., , X.-L. Huang, , and N.-C. Lau, 2008: Winter-to-spring transition in East Asia: A planetary-scale perspective of the south China spring rain onset. J. Climate, 21, 30813096, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1611.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liu, J., , J. A. Curry, , H. Wang, , M. Song, , and R. M. Horton, 2012: Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 40744079, doi:10.1073/pnas.1114910109.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Magnusdottir, G., , C. Deser, , and R. Saravanan, 2004: The effects of North Atlantic SST and sea ice anomalies on the winter circulation in CCM3. Part I: Main features and storm track characteristics of the response. J. Climate, 17, 857876, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0857:TEONAS>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mori, M., , M. Watanabe, , H. Shiogama, , J. Inoue, , and M. Kimoto, 2014: Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades. Nat. Geosci., 7, 869873, doi:10.1038/ngeo2277.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Overland, J. E., , and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 19, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2009.00421.x.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pan, W., , J. Mao, , and G. Wu, 2013: Characteristics and mechanism of the 10–20-day oscillation of spring rainfall over southern China. J. Climate, 26, 50725087, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00618.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Plumb, R. A., 1985: On the three-dimensional propagation of stationary waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 217229, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1985)042<0217:OTTDPO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Qi, L., , J. He, , Z. Zhang, , and J. Song, 2008: Seasonal cycle of the zonal land-sea thermal contrast and East Asian subtropical monsoon circulation. Chin. Sci. Bull., 53, 131136, doi:10.1007/s11434-007-0518-0.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rayner, N. A., , D. E. Parker, , E. B. Horton, , C. K. Folland, , L. V. Alexander, , D. P. Rowell, , E. C. Kent, , and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Serreze, M. C., , M. M. Holland, , and J. Stroeve, 2007: Perspectives on the Arctic’s shrinking sea-ice cover. Science, 315, 15331536, doi:10.1126/science.1139426.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Simmons, A. J., , J. M. Wallace, , and G. W. Branstator, 1983: Barotropic wave propagation and instability, and atmospheric teleconnection patterns. J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 13631392, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1983)040<1363:BWPAIA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Singarayer, J. S., , J. L. Bamber, , and P. J. Valdes, 2006: Twenty-first-century climate impacts from a declining Arctic sea ice cover. J. Climate, 19, 11091125, doi:10.1175/JCLI3649.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Stroeve, J., , M. M. Holland, , W. Meier, , T. Scambos, , and M. Serreze, 2007: Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L09501, doi:10.1029/2007GL029703.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wan, R., , and G. Wu, 2006: Study on the physical mechanisms of spring persistent precipitation (in Chinese). Sci. China, 36D, 936950.

  • Wan, R., , and G. Wu, 2008: Temporal and spatial distribution of the spring persistent rains over southeastern China (in Chinese). Acta Meteor. Sin., 66, 310319.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, B., , Z. Wu, , J. P. Li, , J. Liu, , C.-P. Chang, , Y. Ding, , and G. Wu, 2008: How to measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon. J. Climate, 21, 44494462, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2183.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, B., , F. Huang, , Z. Wu, , J. Yang, , X. Fu, , and K. Kikuchi, 2009: Multi-scale climate variability of the South China Sea monsoon: A review. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 47, 1537, doi:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2008.09.004.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, B., , Z. Wu, , J. Liu, , C.-P. Chang, , J. P. Li, , and T.-J. Zhou, 2010: Another look at climate variations of the East Asian winter monsoon: Northern and southern temperature modes. J. Climate, 23, 14951512, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3243.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, M., , and J. E. Overland, 2009: A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years? Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07502, doi:10.1029/2009GL037820.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, Z., , C. Chang, , B. Wang, , and F.-F. Jin, 2005: Teleconnections from tropics to northern extratropics through a southerly conveyor. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 40574070, doi:10.1175/JAS3600.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Webster, P. J., , and J. R. Holton, 1982: Cross-equatorial response to middle-latitude forcing in a zonally varying basic state. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 722733, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1982)039<0722:CERTML>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Webster, P. J., , and S. Yang, 1992: Monsoon and ENSO: Selectively interactive systems. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 118, 877926, doi:10.1002/qj.49711850705.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Whitaker, J. S., , G. P. Compo, , X. Wei, , and T. M. Hamill, 2004: Reanalysis without radiosondes using ensemble data assimilation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 11901200, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1190:RWRUED>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Whitham, G., 1960: A note on group velocity. J. Fluid Mech., 9, 347352, doi:10.1017/S0022112060001158.

  • Wu, B., , and J. Wang, 2002a: Possible impacts of winter Arctic Oscillation on Siberian high, the East Asian winter monsoon and sea-ice extent. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 19, 297320, doi:10.1007/s00376-002-0024-x.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, B., , and J. Wang, 2002b: Winter Arctic Oscillation, Siberian high and East Asian winter monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1897, doi:10.1029/2002GL015373.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, Z., , and J. P. Li, 2008: Prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon interannual variations with the grid-point atmospheric model of IAP LASG (GAMIL). Adv. Atmos. Sci., 25, 387394, doi:10.1007/s00376-008-0387-8.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, Z., , B. Wang, , J. P. Li, , and F.-F. Jin, 2009: An empirical seasonal prediction model of the East Asian summer monsoon using ENSO and NAO. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D18120, doi:10.1029/2009JD011733.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, Z., , J. P. Li, , Z. Jiang, , and J. He, 2011: Predictable climate dynamics of abnormal East Asian winter monsoon: Once-in-a-century snowstorms in 2007/2008 winter. Climate Dyn., 37, 16611669, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0938-4.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, Z., , Z. Jiang, , J. P. Li, , S. Zhong, , and L. Wang, 2012: Possible association of the western Tibetan Plateau snow cover with the decadal to interdecadal variations of northern China heatwave frequency. Climate Dyn., 39, 23932402, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1439-4.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, Z., , J. Dou, , and H. Lin, 2015: Potential influence of the November–December Southern Hemisphere annular mode on the East Asian winter precipitation: A new mechanism. Climate Dyn., 44, 12151226, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2241-2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yang, F. L., , and K. M. Lau, 2004: Trend and variability of China precipitation in spring and summer. Int. J. Climatol., 24, 16251644, doi:10.1002/joc.1094.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yang, L., , and Q. Zhang, 2007: Anomalous perturbation kinetic energy of Rossby wave along East Asian westerly jet and its association with summer rainfall in China (in Chinese). Chin. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 586595.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yang, S., , and P. J. Webster, 1990: The effect of summer tropical heating on the location and intensity of the extratropical westerly jet streams. J. Geophys. Res., 95, 18 70518 721, doi:10.1029/JD095iD11p18705.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, X., , A. Sorteberg, , J. Zhang, , R. Gerdes, , and J. C. Comiso, 2008: Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22701, doi:10.1029/2008GL035607.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, X., , C. Lu, , and Z. Guan, 2012: Weakened cyclones, intensified anticyclones and recent extreme cold winter weather events in Eurasia. Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 044044, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044044.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhao, P., , R. Zhang, , J. Liu, , X. Zhou, , and J. He, 2007: Onset of southwesterly wind over eastern China and associated atmospheric circulation and rainfall. Climate Dyn., 28, 797811, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0212-y.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhao, P., , P. Jiang, , X. Zhou, , and C. Zhu, 2009: Modelling impacts of East Asian ocean-land thermal contrast on spring southerly winds and rainfall in eastern China. Chin. Sci. Bull., 54, 47334741.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhao, S., , J. P. Li, , and Y. J. Li, 2015: Dynamics of an interhemispheric teleconnection across the critical latitude through a southerly duct during boreal winter. J. Climate, 28, 74377456, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00425.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhu, X., , Z. Wu, , and J. He, 2008: Anomalous meiyu onset averaged over the Yangtze River valley. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 94, 8195, doi:10.1007/s00704-007-0347-8.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhu, Z., , T. Li, , and J. He, 2014: Out-of-phase relationship between boreal spring and summer decadal rainfall changes in southern China. J. Climate, 27, 10831099, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00180.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 91 91 14
PDF Downloads 86 86 20

Potential Influence of Arctic Sea Ice to the Interannual Variations of East Asian Spring Precipitation

View More View Less
  • 1 Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
  • | 2 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
  • | 3 Data Analytics, CSIRO Digital Productivity Flagship, Leeuwin Centre, Floreat, Western Australia, Australia
© Get Permissions
Restricted access

Abstract

Arctic sea ice (ASI) and its potential climatic impacts have received increasing attention during the past decades, yet the relevant mechanisms are far from being understood, particularly how anomalous ASI affects climate in midlatitudes. The spring precipitation takes up as much as 30% of the annual total and significantly influences agriculture in East Asia. Here, observed evidence and numerical experiment results show that the ASI variability in the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea in the preceding winter is intimately connected with interannual variations of the East Asian spring precipitation (EAP). The former can explain about 14% of the total variance of the latter. The ASI anomalies persist from winter through the ensuing spring and excite downstream teleconnections of a distinct Rossby wave train prevailing over the Eurasian continent. For the reduced ASI, such a wave train pattern is usually associated with an anomalous low pressure center over the Mongolian plateau, which accelerates the East Asian subtropical westerly jet. The intensified subtropical westerly jet, concurrent with lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence, enhances the local convection and consequently favors rich spring precipitation over East Asia. For the excessive ASI, the situation tends to be opposite. Given that seasonal prediction of the EAP remains a challenging issue, the winter ASI variability may provide another potential predictability source besides El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Earth System Modeling Center Publication Number 0089.

Current affiliation: Business Intelligence and Data Analytics, Western Power, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.

Corresponding author address: Prof. Zhiwei Wu, ESMC, Nanjing University of Information Sciences and Technology, 219 Ningliu Rd., Nanjing, Jiangsu 210044, China. E-mail: zhiweiwu@nuist.edu.cn

Abstract

Arctic sea ice (ASI) and its potential climatic impacts have received increasing attention during the past decades, yet the relevant mechanisms are far from being understood, particularly how anomalous ASI affects climate in midlatitudes. The spring precipitation takes up as much as 30% of the annual total and significantly influences agriculture in East Asia. Here, observed evidence and numerical experiment results show that the ASI variability in the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea in the preceding winter is intimately connected with interannual variations of the East Asian spring precipitation (EAP). The former can explain about 14% of the total variance of the latter. The ASI anomalies persist from winter through the ensuing spring and excite downstream teleconnections of a distinct Rossby wave train prevailing over the Eurasian continent. For the reduced ASI, such a wave train pattern is usually associated with an anomalous low pressure center over the Mongolian plateau, which accelerates the East Asian subtropical westerly jet. The intensified subtropical westerly jet, concurrent with lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence, enhances the local convection and consequently favors rich spring precipitation over East Asia. For the excessive ASI, the situation tends to be opposite. Given that seasonal prediction of the EAP remains a challenging issue, the winter ASI variability may provide another potential predictability source besides El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Earth System Modeling Center Publication Number 0089.

Current affiliation: Business Intelligence and Data Analytics, Western Power, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.

Corresponding author address: Prof. Zhiwei Wu, ESMC, Nanjing University of Information Sciences and Technology, 219 Ningliu Rd., Nanjing, Jiangsu 210044, China. E-mail: zhiweiwu@nuist.edu.cn
Save