• Chiodi, A. M., , and D. E. Harrison, 2008: Characterizing the interannual variability of the equatorial Pacific: An OLR perspective. NOAA Tech. Memo. OAR PMEL-140, NTIS: PB2008-112890, 30 pp. [Available online at www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/PDF/chio3204/chio3204.pdf.]

  • Chiodi, A. M., , and D. E. Harrison, 2010: Characterizing warm-ENSO variability in the equatorial Pacific: An OLR perspective. J. Climate, 23, 24282439, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3030.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chiodi, A. M., , and D. E. Harrison, 2013: El Niño impacts on seasonal U.S. atmospheric circulation, temperature and precipitation anomalies: The OLR-event perspective. J. Climate, 26, 822837, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00097.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chiodi, A. M., , and D. E. Harrison, 2015a: Global seasonal precipitation anomalies robustly associated with El Niño and La Niña events—An OLR perspective. J. Climate, 28, 61336159, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00387.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chiodi, A. M., , and D. E. Harrison, 2015b: Equatorial Pacific easterly wind surges and the onset of La Niña events. J. Climate, 28, 776792, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00227.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dee, D. P., and et al. , 2011: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553597, doi:10.1002/qj.828.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fan, Y., , and H. van den Dool, 2008: A global monthly land surface air temperature analysis for 1948–present. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D01103, doi:10.1029/2007JD008470.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Halpert, M. S., , and C. F. Ropelewski, 1992: Surface temperature patterns associated with the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 5, 577593, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005<0577:STPAWT>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Harrison, D. E., , and A. M. Chiodi, 2015: Multi-decadal variability and trends in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific fisheries implications. Deep-Sea Res. II, 113, 921, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.12.020.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hoerling, M. P., , and A. Kumar, 2002: Atmospheric response patterns associated with tropical forcing. J. Climate, 15, 21842203, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2184:ARPAWT>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hoerling, M. P., , A. Kumar, , and M. Zhong, 1997: El Niño, La Niña, and the nonlinearity of their teleconnections. J. Climate, 10, 17691786, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1769:ENOLNA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Horel, J. D., , and J. M. Wallace, 1981: Planetary-scale atmospheric phenomena associated with the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 813829, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0813:PSAPAW>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kalnay, E., and et al. , 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437470, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Larkin, N. K., , and D. E. Harrison, 2002: ENSO warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) event life cycles: Ocean surface anomaly patterns, their symmetries, asymmetries, and implications. J. Climate, 15, 11181140, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1118:EWENOA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lee, H.-T., 2014: Climate Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document (C-ATBD): Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)—Daily. CDRP-ATBD-0526 Rev 1, NCDC Climate Data Record Program, National Climatic Data Center. [Available online at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.olrcdr.interp.html.]

  • L’Heureux, M., , M. Tippett, , and A. Barnston, 2015: Characterizing ENSO coupled variability and its impact on North American seasonal precipitation and temperature. J. Climate, 28, 42314245, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00508.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liebmann, B., , and C. A. Smith, 1996: Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 12751277.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Livezey, R. E., , and W. Y. Chen, 1983: Statistical field significance and its determination by Monte Carlo techniques. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 4659, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<0046:SFSAID>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Peng, P., , and A. Kumar, 2005: A large ensemble analysis of the influence of tropical SSTs on seasonal atmospheric variability. J. Climate, 18, 10681085, doi:10.1175/JCLI-3314.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 14 14 0
PDF Downloads 12 12 0

Comments on “Characterizing ENSO Coupled Variability and Its Impact on North American Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature”

View More View Less
  • 1 NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, and Joint Institute for the Study of the Ocean and Atmosphere, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
  • | 2 Joint Institute for the Study of the Ocean and Atmosphere, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
© Get Permissions
Restricted access

Abstract

El Niño and La Niña seasonal weather anomaly associations provide a useful basis for winter forecasting over the North American regions where they are sufficiently strong in amplitude and consistent in character from one event to another. When the associations during La Niña are different than El Niño, however, the obvious quasi-linear-statistical approach to modeling them has serious shortcomings. The linear approach of L’Heureux et al. is critiqued here based on observed land surface temperature and tropospheric circulation associations over North America. The La Niña associations are quite different in pattern from their El Niño counterparts. The El Niño associations dominate the statistics. This causes the linear approach to produce results that are inconsistent with the observed La Niña–averaged associations. Further, nearly all the useful North American associations have been contributed by the subset of El Niño and La Niña years that are identifiable by an outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) El Niño index and a distinct OLR La Niña index. The remaining “non-OLR events” exhibit winter weather anomalies with large event-to-event variability and contribute very little statistical utility to the composites. The result is that the linear analysis framework is sufficiently unable to fit the observations as to question its utility for studying La Niña and El Niño seasonal temperature and atmospheric circulation relationships. An OLR-event based approach that treats La Niña and El Niño separately is significantly more consistent with, and offers an improved statistical model for, the observed relationships.

Corresponding author e-mail: Andrew M. Chiodi, andy.chiodi@noaa.gov

The original article that was the subject of this comment/reply can be found at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00508.1.

Abstract

El Niño and La Niña seasonal weather anomaly associations provide a useful basis for winter forecasting over the North American regions where they are sufficiently strong in amplitude and consistent in character from one event to another. When the associations during La Niña are different than El Niño, however, the obvious quasi-linear-statistical approach to modeling them has serious shortcomings. The linear approach of L’Heureux et al. is critiqued here based on observed land surface temperature and tropospheric circulation associations over North America. The La Niña associations are quite different in pattern from their El Niño counterparts. The El Niño associations dominate the statistics. This causes the linear approach to produce results that are inconsistent with the observed La Niña–averaged associations. Further, nearly all the useful North American associations have been contributed by the subset of El Niño and La Niña years that are identifiable by an outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) El Niño index and a distinct OLR La Niña index. The remaining “non-OLR events” exhibit winter weather anomalies with large event-to-event variability and contribute very little statistical utility to the composites. The result is that the linear analysis framework is sufficiently unable to fit the observations as to question its utility for studying La Niña and El Niño seasonal temperature and atmospheric circulation relationships. An OLR-event based approach that treats La Niña and El Niño separately is significantly more consistent with, and offers an improved statistical model for, the observed relationships.

Corresponding author e-mail: Andrew M. Chiodi, andy.chiodi@noaa.gov

The original article that was the subject of this comment/reply can be found at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00508.1.

Save