Asymmetric Modulation of El Niño and La Niña and the Linkage to Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability

Yuko M. Okumura Institute for Geophysics, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas

Search for other papers by Yuko M. Okumura in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Tianyi Sun Institute for Geophysics, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas

Search for other papers by Tianyi Sun in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
Xian Wu Institute for Geophysics, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas

Search for other papers by Xian Wu in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a 1300-yr preindustrial control simulation of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), exhibits distinct modulation in association with tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV). The frequency and duration of El Niño events modulate with changes in the interbasin sea surface temperature (SST) gradient related to the leading mode of TPDV, which resembles the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). La Niña shows similar changes with the IPO but is also controlled by changes in El Niño that often precedes La Niña, and these effects tend to cancel each other. The amplitude of ENSO, on the other hand, is closely related to the second leading mode of TPDV that affects the zonal and meridional contrast of tropical Pacific climate. Significant changes in the pattern and seasonal evolution related to this TPDV mode are found mainly for El Niño because of the nonlinear relation between the atmospheric deep convection and SSTs. The resultant changes in the amplitude of El Niño, in turn, affect the amplitude and duration of the following La Niña, as well as the asymmetry in their patterns and duration. The decadal ENSO modulation associated with both TPDV modes is not symmetrical between El Niño and La Niña and thus is not likely to occur solely as a result of random variability. The patterns of TPDV in CCSM4 have resemblance to those simulated by its atmospheric component coupled to a slab ocean model, suggesting that TPDV induced by stochastic atmospheric variability interacts with the ENSO dynamics.

© 2017 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Dr. Yuko M. Okumura, yukoo@ig.utexas.edu

Abstract

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a 1300-yr preindustrial control simulation of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), exhibits distinct modulation in association with tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV). The frequency and duration of El Niño events modulate with changes in the interbasin sea surface temperature (SST) gradient related to the leading mode of TPDV, which resembles the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). La Niña shows similar changes with the IPO but is also controlled by changes in El Niño that often precedes La Niña, and these effects tend to cancel each other. The amplitude of ENSO, on the other hand, is closely related to the second leading mode of TPDV that affects the zonal and meridional contrast of tropical Pacific climate. Significant changes in the pattern and seasonal evolution related to this TPDV mode are found mainly for El Niño because of the nonlinear relation between the atmospheric deep convection and SSTs. The resultant changes in the amplitude of El Niño, in turn, affect the amplitude and duration of the following La Niña, as well as the asymmetry in their patterns and duration. The decadal ENSO modulation associated with both TPDV modes is not symmetrical between El Niño and La Niña and thus is not likely to occur solely as a result of random variability. The patterns of TPDV in CCSM4 have resemblance to those simulated by its atmospheric component coupled to a slab ocean model, suggesting that TPDV induced by stochastic atmospheric variability interacts with the ENSO dynamics.

© 2017 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Dr. Yuko M. Okumura, yukoo@ig.utexas.edu
Save
  • Alexander, M. A., I. Blade, M. Newman, J. R. Lanzante, N.-C. Lau, and J. D. Scott, 2002: The atmospheric bridge: The influence of ENSO teleconnections on air–sea interaction over the global oceans. J. Climate, 15, 22052231, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2205:TABTIO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Alexander, M. A., D. J. Vimont, P. Chang, and J. D. Scott, 2010: The impact of extratropical atmospheric variability on ENSO: Testing the seasonal footprinting mechanism using coupled model experiments. J. Climate, 23, 28852901, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3205.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • An, S.-I., 2004: Interdecadal changes in the El Niño–La Niña asymmetry. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L23210, doi:10.1029/2004GL021699.

  • An, S.-I., and J. Choi, 2015: Why the twenty-first century tropical Pacific trend pattern cannot significantly influence ENSO amplitude? Climate Dyn., 44, 133146, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2233-2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Anderson, B. T., 2003: Tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures and preceding sea level pressure anomalies in the subtropical North Pacific. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4732, doi:10.1029/2003JD003805.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bailey, D., C. Hannay, M. Holland, and R. Neale, 2009: Slab ocean model forcing. NCAR Tech. Note, 2 pp. [Available online at http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/cesm1.2/data8/doc/SOM.pdf.]

  • Barnett, T., D. Pierce, M. Latif, D. Dommenget, and R. Saravanan, 1999: Interdecadal interactions between tropics and midlatitudes in the Pacific Basin. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 615618, doi:10.1029/1999GL900042.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Burgers, G., and D. B. Stephenson, 1999: The “normality” of El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 10271030, doi:10.1029/1999GL900161.

  • Burgman, R. J., P. S. Schopf, and B. P. Kirtman, 2008: Decadal modulation of ENSO in a hybrid coupled model. J. Climate, 21, 54825500, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI1933.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cai, W., and Coauthors, 2014: Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming. Nat. Climate Change, 4, 111116, doi:10.1038/nclimate2100.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cai, W., and Coauthors, 2015: ENSO and greenhouse warming. Nat. Climate Change, 5, 849859, doi:10.1038/nclimate2743.

  • Chang, P., and Coauthors, 2006: Climate fluctuations of tropical coupled systems—The role of ocean dynamics. J. Climate, 19, 51225174, doi:10.1175/JCLI3903.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chang, P., L. Zhang, R. Saravanan, D. J. Vimont, J. C. H. Chiang, L. Ji, H. Seidel, and M. K. Tippett, 2007: Pacific meridional mode and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L16608, doi:10.1029/2007GL030302.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chikamoto, Y., A. Timmermann, and J. J. Luo, 2015: Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability. Nat. Commun., 6, 6869, doi:10.1038/ncomms7869.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Choi, J., S.-I. An, B. Dewitte, and W. W. Hsieh, 2009: Interactive feedback between the tropical Pacific decadal oscillation and ENSO in a coupled general circulation model. J. Climate, 22, 65976611, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2782.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Choi, J., S.-I. An, and S.-W. Yeh, 2012: Decadal amplitude modulation of two types of ENSO and its relationship with the mean state. Climate Dyn., 38, 26312644, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1186-y.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Choi, J., S.-I. An, S.-W. Yeh, and J.-Y. Yu, 2013: ENSO-like and ENSO-induced tropical Pacific decadal variability in CGCMs. J. Climate, 26, 14851501, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00118.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chung, C. T. Y., and S. B. Power, 2014: Precipitation response to La Niña and global warming in the Indo-Pacific. Climate Dyn., 43, 32933307, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2105-9.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chung, C. T. Y., S. B. Power, J. M. Arblaster, H. A. Rashid, and G. L. Roff, 2014: Nonlinear precipitation response to El Niño and global warming in the Indo-Pacific. Climate Dyn., 42, 18371856, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1892-8.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Clement, A., P. DiNezio, and C. Deser, 2011: Rethinking the ocean’s role in the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 24, 40564072, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3973.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cobb, K. M., C. D. Charles, H. Cheng, and R. L. Edwards, 2003: El Niño/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium. Nature, 424, 271276, doi:10.1038/nature01779.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Collins, M., and Coauthors, 2010: The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño. Nat. Geosci., 3, 391397, doi:10.1038/ngeo868.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Danabasoglu, G., S. G. Yeager, Y.-O. Kwon, J. J. Tribbia, A. S. Phillips, and J. W. Hurrell, 2012: Variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in CCSM4. J. Climate, 25, 51535172, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00463.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • D’Arrigo, R., E. R. Cook, R. J. Wilson, R. Allan, and M. E. Mann, 2005: On the variability of ENSO over the past six centuries. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L03711, doi:10.1029/2004GL022055.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, and J. W. Hurrell, 2004: Pacific interdecadal climate variability: Linkages between the tropics and North Pacific during boreal winter since 1900. J. Climate, 17, 31093124, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3109:PICVLB>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Deser, C., M. A. Alexander, S.-P. Xie, and A. S. Phillips, 2010a: Sea surface temperature variability: Patterns and mechanisms. Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 2, 115143, doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-120408-151453.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, and M. A. Alexander, 2010b: Twentieth century tropical sea surface temperature trends revisited. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L10701, doi:10.1029/2010GL043321.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Deser, C., and Coauthors, 2012: ENSO and Pacific decadal variability in the Community Climate System Model version 4. J. Climate, 25, 26222651, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00301.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • DiNezio, P. N., and C. Deser, 2014: Nonlinear controls on the persistence of La Niña. J. Climate, 27, 73357355, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00033.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • DiNezio, P. N., B. P. Kirtman, A. C. Clement, S.-K. Lee, G. A. Vecchi, and A. Wittenberg, 2012: Mean climate controls on the simulated response of ENSO to increasing greenhouse gases. J. Climate, 25, 73997420, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00494.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • DiNezio, P. N., C. Deser, Y. Okumura, and A. Karspeck, 2017: Mechanisms controlling the predictability of 2-year La Niña. Climate Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3575-3, in press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ding, H., N. S. Keenlyside, and M. Latif, 2012: Impact of the equatorial Atlantic on the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Climate Dyn., 38, 19651972, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1097-y.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dommenget, D., 2010: A slab ocean El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20701, doi:10.1029/2010GL044888.

  • Dommenget, D., and M. Latif, 2008: Generation of hyper climate modes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L02706, doi:10.1029/2007GL031087.

  • Dommenget, D., T. Bayr, and C. Frauen, 2013: Analysis of the non-linearity in the pattern and time evolution of El Niño Southern Oscillation. Climate Dyn., 40, 28252847, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1475-0.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dong, B., R. T. Sutton, and A. A. Scaife, 2006: Multidecadal modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variance by Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L08705, doi:10.1029/2006GL025766.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Emile-Geay, J., K. M. Cobb, M. E. Mann, and A. T. Wittenberg, 2013: Estimating central equatorial Pacific SST variability over the past millennium. Part II: Reconstructions and implications. J. Climate, 26, 23292352, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00511.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fang, Y., J. C. Chiang, and P. Chang, 2008: Variation of mean sea surface temperature and modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation variance during the past 150 years. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L14709, doi:10.1029/2008GL033761.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fedorov, A. V., and S. G. Philander, 2000: Is El Niño changing? Science, 288, 19972002, doi:10.1126/science.288.5473.1997.

  • Fedorov, A. V., and S. G. Philander, 2001: A stability analysis of tropical ocean–atmosphere interactions: Bridging measurements and theory for El Niño. J. Climate, 14, 30863101, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<3086:ASAOTO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Flügel, M., and P. Chang, 1999: Stochastically induced climate shift of El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 24732476, doi:10.1029/1999GL900550.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Flügel, M., P. Chang, and C. Penland, 2004: The role of stochastic forcing in modulating ENSO predictability. J. Climate, 17, 31253140, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3125:TROSFI>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Frankignoul, C., and K. Hasselmann, 1977: Stochastic climate models. Part II. Application to sea-surface temperature variability and thermocline variability. Tellus, 29, 289305, doi:10.3402/tellusa.v29i4.11362.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Galanti, E., E. Tziperman, M. Harrison, A. Rosati, R. Giering, and Z. Sirkes, 2002: The equatorial thermocline outcropping—A seasonal control on the tropical Pacific Ocean–atmosphere instability strength. J. Climate, 15, 27212739, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2721:TETOAS>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Garreaud, R. D., and D. S. Battisti, 1999: Interannual (ENSO) and interdecadal (ENSO-like) variability in the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation. J. Climate, 12, 21132123, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2113:IEAIEL>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gent, P. R., and Coauthors, 2011: The Community Climate System Model version 4. J. Climate, 24, 49734991, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1.

  • Gu, D., and S. G. H. Philander, 1995: Secular changes of annual and interannual variability in the tropics during the past century. J. Climate, 8, 864876, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<0864:SCOAAI>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gu, D., and S. G. H. Philander, 1997: Interdecadal climate fluctuations that depend on exchanges between the tropics and the extratropics. Science, 275, 805807, doi:10.1126/science.275.5301.805.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Guilyardi, E., 2006: El Niño–mean state–seasonal cycle interactions in a multi-model ensemble. Climate Dyn., 26, 329348, doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0084-6.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hao, Z., J. D. Neelin, and F.-F. Jin, 1993: Nonlinear tropical air–sea interaction in the fast-wave limit. J. Climate, 6, 15231544, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<1523:NTAIIT>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hazeleger, W., M. Visbeck, M. Cane, A. Karspeck, and N. Naik, 2001: Decadal upper ocean temperature variability in the tropical and subtropical Pacific. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 89718988, doi:10.1029/2000JC000536.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hoerling, M. P., A. Kumar, and M. Zhong, 1997: El Niño, La Niña, and the nonlinearity of their teleconnections. J. Climate, 10, 17691786, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1769:ENOLNA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jansen, M. F., D. Dommenget, and N. Keenlyside, 2009: Tropical atmosphere–ocean interactions in a conceptual framework. J. Climate, 22, 550567, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2243.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jin, F.-F., and J. D. Neelin, 1993: Modes of interannual tropical ocean–atmosphere interaction—A unified view. Part I: Numerical results. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 34773503, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1993)050<3477:MOITOI>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jin, F.-F., S.-I. An, A. Timmermann, and J. Zhao, 2003: Strong El Niño events and nonlinear dynamical heating. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1120, doi:10.1029/2002GL016356.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kang, I.-S., and J.-S. Kug, 2002: El Niño and La Niña sea surface temperature anomalies: Asymmetry characteristics associated with their wind stress anomalies. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4372, doi:10.1029/2001JD000393.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kang, I.-S., H.-H. No, and F. Kucharski, 2014: ENSO amplitude modulation associated with the mean SST changes in the tropical central Pacific induced by Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. J. Climate, 27, 79117920, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00018.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Karspeck, A., and M. A. Cane, 2002: Tropical Pacific 1976–77 climate shift in a linear, wind-driven model. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 32, 23502360, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(2002)032<2350:TPCSIA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kay, J. E., and Coauthors, 2015: The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 13331349, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kessler, W. S., 2002: Is ENSO a cycle or a series of events? Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 2125, doi:10.1029/2002GL015924.

  • Kiem, A. S., S. W. Franks, and G. Kuczera, 2003: Multi-decadal variability of flood risk. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1035, doi:10.1029/2002GL015992.

  • Larkin, N. K., and D. E. Harrison, 2002: ENSO warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) event life cycles: Ocean surface anomaly patterns, their symmetries, asymmetries, and implications. J. Climate, 15, 11181140, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1118:EWENOA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Latif, M., and T. P. Barnett, 1995: Interactions of the tropical oceans. J. Climate, 8, 952964, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<0952:IOTTO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Li, J., S.-P. Xie, E. R. Cook, G. Huang, R. D’Arrigo, F. Liu, J. Ma, and X.-T. Zheng, 2011: Interdecadal modulation of El Niño amplitude during the past millennium. Nat. Climate Change, 1, 114118, doi:10.1038/nclimate1086.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liu, Z., 2012: Dynamics of interdecadal climate variability: A historical perspective. J. Climate, 25, 19631995, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3980.1.

  • Mantua, N. J., S. R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis, 1997: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 10691079, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McGregor, S., A. Timmermann, and O. Timm, 2010: A unified proxy for ENSO and PDO variability since 1650. Climate Past, 6, 117, doi:10.5194/cp-6-1-2010.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McGregor, S., N. Ramesh, P. Spence, M. H. England, M. J. McPhaden, and A. Santoso, 2013a: Meridional movement of wind anomalies during ENSO events and their role in event termination. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 749754, doi:10.1002/grl.50136.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McGregor, S., A. Timmermann, M. H. England, O. E. Timm, and A. T. Wittenberg, 2013b: Inferred changes in El Niño–Southern Oscillation variance over the past six centuries. Climate Past, 9, 22692284, doi:10.5194/cp-9-2269-2013.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McGregor, S., A. Timmermann, M. F. Stuecker, M. H. England, M. Merrifield, F.-F. Jin, and Y. Chikamoto, 2014: Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming. Nat. Climate Change, 4, 888892, doi:10.1038/nclimate2330.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McPhaden, M. J., and X. Zhang, 2009: Asymmetry in zonal phase propagation of ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L13703, doi:10.1029/2009GL038774.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Meinen, C. S., and M. J. McPhaden, 2000: Observations of warm water volume changes in the equatorial Pacific and their relationship to El Niño and La Niña. J. Climate, 13, 35513559, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3551:OOWWVC>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mo, K. C., 2000: Relationships between low-frequency variability in the Southern Hemisphere and sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 13, 35993610, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3599:RBLFVI>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Neale, R. B., J. H. Richter, and M. Jochum, 2008: The impact of convection on ENSO: From a delayed oscillator to a series of events. J. Climate, 21, 59045924, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2244.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Neelin, J. D., D. S. Battisti, A. C. Hirst, F.-F. Jin, Y. Wakata, T. Yamagata, and S. E. Zebiak, 1998: ENSO theory. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14 26114 290, doi:10.1029/97JC03424.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Newman, M., and Coauthors, 2016: The Pacific decadal oscillation, revisited. J. Climate, 29, 43994427, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0508.1.

  • Nitta, T., and S. Yamada, 1989: Recent warming of tropical sea surface temperature and its relationship to the Northern Hemisphere circulation. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 67, 375383, doi:10.2151/jmsj1965.67.3_375.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ogata, T., S.-P. Xie, A. Wittenberg, and D.-Z. Sun, 2013: Interdecadal amplitude modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and its impact on tropical Pacific decadal variability. J. Climate, 26, 72807297, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00415.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ohba, M., and H. Ueda, 2009: Role of nonlinear atmospheric response to SST on the asymmetric transition process of ENSO. J. Climate, 22, 177192, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2334.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ohba, M., and M. Watanabe, 2012: Role of the Indo-Pacific interbasin coupling in predicting asymmetric ENSO transition and duration. J. Climate, 25, 33213335, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00409.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Okumura, Y. M., 2013: Origins of tropical Pacific decadal variability: Role of stochastic atmospheric forcing from the South Pacific. J. Climate, 26, 97919796, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00448.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Okumura, Y. M., and C. Deser, 2010: Asymmetry in the duration of El Niño and La Niña. J. Climate, 23, 58265843, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3592.1.

  • Okumura, Y. M., M. Ohba, C. Deser, and H. Ueda, 2011: A proposed mechanism for the asymmetric duration of El Niño and La Niña. J. Climate, 24, 38223829, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3999.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pierce, D., T. Barnett, and M. Latif, 2000: Connections between the Pacific Ocean tropics and midlatitudes on decadal timescales. J. Climate, 13, 11731194, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1173:CBTPOT>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Power, S., T. Casey, C. Folland, A. Colman, and V. Mehta, 1999: Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Climate Dyn., 15, 319324, doi:10.1007/s003820050284.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Power, S., M. Haylock, R. Colman, and X. Wang, 2006: The predictability of interdecadal changes in ENSO activity and ENSO teleconnections. J. Climate, 19, 47554771, doi:10.1175/JCLI3868.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rodgers, K. B., P. Friederichs, and M. Latif, 2004: Tropical Pacific decadal variability and its relation to decadal modulations of ENSO. J. Climate, 17, 37613774, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3761:TPDVAI>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rogers, J. C., 1981: The North Pacific Oscillation. J. Climatol., 1, 3952, doi:10.1002/joc.3370010106.

  • Schneider, N., A. Miller, M. Alexander, C. Deser, and M. Latif, 1999a: Subduction of decadal North Pacific temperature anomalies: Observations and dynamics. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 29, 10561070, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1999)029<1056:SODNPT>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schneider, N., S. Venzke, A. Miller, D. Pierce, T. Barnett, C. Deser, and M. Latif, 1999b: Pacific thermocline bridge revisited. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 13291332, doi:10.1029/1999GL900222.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schopf, P. S., and R. J. Burgman, 2006: A simple mechanism for ENSO residuals and asymmetry. J. Climate, 19, 31673179, doi:10.1175/JCLI3765.1.

  • Schott, F. A., S.-P. Xie, and J. P. McCreary, 2009: Indian Ocean circulation and climate variability. Rev. Geophys., 47, RG1002, doi:10.1029/2007RG000245.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sun, D.-Z., and T. Zhang, 2006: A regulatory effect of ENSO on the time-mean thermal stratification of the equatorial upper ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L07710, doi:10.1029/2005GL025384.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sun, F., and J.-Y. Yu, 2009: A 10–15-yr modulation cycle of ENSO intensity. J. Climate, 22, 17181735, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2285.1.

  • Takahashi, K., and B. Dewitte, 2016: Strong and moderate nonlinear El Niño regimes. Climate Dyn., 46, 16271645, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2665-3.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Thompson, C. J., and D. S. Battisti, 2001: A linear stochastic dynamical model of ENSO. Part II: Analysis. J. Climate, 14, 445466, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0445:ALSDMO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Timmermann, A., 2003: Decadal ENSO amplitude modulations: A nonlinear paradigm. Global Planet. Change, 37, 135156, doi:10.1016/S0921-8181(02)00194-7.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Timmermann, A., and Coauthors, 2007: The influence of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ENSO. J. Climate, 20, 48994919, doi:10.1175/JCLI4283.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tokinaga, H., S.-P. Xie, C. Deser, Y. Kosaka, and Y. M. Okumura, 2012: Slowdown of the Walker circulation driven by tropical Indo-Pacific warming. Nature, 491, 439443, doi:10.1038/nature11576.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Trenberth, K. E., and D. J. Shea, 1987: On the evolution of the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 30783096, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<3078:OTEOTS>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Trenberth, K. E., and J. W. Hurrell, 1994: Decadal atmosphere–ocean variations in the Pacific. Climate Dyn., 9, 303319, doi:10.1007/BF00204745.

  • Trenberth, K. E., G. W. Branstator, D. Karoly, A. Kumar, N.-C. Lau, and C. Ropelewski, 1998: Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14 29114 324, doi:10.1029/97JC01444.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Verdon, D. C., and S. W. Franks, 2006: Long-term behavior of ENSO: Interactions with the PDO over the past 400 years inferred from paleoclimate records. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L06712, doi:10.1029/2005GL025052.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Vimont, D. J., 2005: The contribution of the interannual ENSO cycle to the spatial pattern of decadal ENSO-like variability. J. Climate, 18, 20802092, doi:10.1175/JCLI3365.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Vimont, D. J., D. S. Battisti, and A. C. Hirst, 2001: Footprinting: A seasonal connection between the tropics and mid-latitudes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 39233926, doi:10.1029/2001GL013435.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wallace, J. M., E. M. Rasmusson, T. P. Mitchell, V. E. Kousky, E. S. Sarachik, and H. von Storch, 1998: On the structure and evolution of ENSO-related climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Lessons from TOGA. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14 24114 259, doi:10.1029/97JC02905.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, B., and Y. Wang, 1996: Temporal structure of the Southern Oscillation as revealed by waveform and wavelet analysis. J. Climate, 9, 15861598, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<1586:TSOTSO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, B., and S.-I. An, 2002: A mechanism for decadal changes of ENSO behavior: Roles of background wind changes. Climate Dyn., 18, 475486, doi:10.1007/s00382-001-0189-5.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, C., 2006: An overlooked feature of tropical climate: Inter-Pacific-Atlantic variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L12702, doi:10.1029/2006GL026324.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, C., and J. Picaut, 2004: Understanding ENSO physics—A review. Earth’s Climate: The Ocean–Atmosphere Interaction, Geophys. Monogr., Vol. 147, Amer. Geophys. Union, 21–48, doi:10.1029/147GM02.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Wittenberg, A. T., A. Rosati, T. L. Delworth, G. A. Vecchi, and F. Zeng, 2014: ENSO modulation: Is it decadally predictable? J. Climate, 27, 26672681, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00577.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, A., and W. W. Hsieh, 2003: Nonlinear interdecadal changes of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Climate Dyn., 21, 719730, doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0361-1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, B., T. Li, and T. Zhou, 2010: Asymmetry of atmospheric circulation anomalies over the western North Pacific between El Niño and La Niña. J. Climate, 23, 48074822, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3222.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Xie, S.-P., and J. A. Carton, 2004: Tropical Atlantic variability: Patterns, mechanisms, and impacts. Earth Climate: The Ocean–Atmosphere Interaction, Geophys. Monogr., Vol. 147, Amer. Geophys. Union, 121–142, doi:10.1029/147GM07.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Ye, Z., and W. W. Hsieh, 2006: The influence of climate regime shift on ENSO. Climate Dyn., 26, 823833, doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0105-5.

  • Yeh, S.-W., and B. P. Kirtman, 2004: Tropical Pacific decadal variability and ENSO amplitude modulation in a CGCM. J. Geophys. Res., 109, C11009, doi:10.1029/2004JC002442.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yeh, S.-W., and B. P. Kirtman, 2005: Pacific decadal variability and decadal ENSO amplitude modulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L05703, doi:10.1029/2004GL021731.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yeh, S.-W., J.-G. Jhun, I.-S. Kang, and B. P. Kirtman, 2004: The decadal ENSO variability in a hybrid coupled model. J. Climate, 17, 12251238, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1225:TDEVIA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, H., A. Clement, and P. DiNezio, 2014a: The South Pacific meridional mode: A mechanism for ENSO-like variability. J. Climate, 27, 769783, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00082.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, H., C. Deser, A. Clement, and R. Tomas, 2014b: Equatorial signatures of the Pacific meridional modes: Dependence on mean climate state. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 568574, doi:10.1002/2013GL058842.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, R.-H., L. M. Rothstein, and A. J. Busalacchi, 1998: Origin of upper-ocean warming and El Niño change on decadal scales in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Nature, 391, 879883, doi:10.1038/36081.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, Y., J. M. Wallace, and D. S. Battisti, 1997: ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900–93. J. Climate, 10, 10041020, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1004:ELIV>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zheng, X.-T., S.-P. Xie, L.-H. Lv, and Z.-Q. Zhou, 2016: Intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change tied to Pacific Ocean warming pattern. J. Climate, 29, 72657279, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0039.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 1672 812 58
PDF Downloads 811 187 9