Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Weakening of the Tropical Atmospheric Circulation Response to Local Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies under Global Warming

Ping Huang Center for Monsoon System Research, and LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Search for other papers by Ping Huang in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Dong Chen Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, China

Search for other papers by Dong Chen in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
, and
Jun Ying State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Hangzhou, China

Search for other papers by Jun Ying in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
15 Oct 2017
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0171.1
Page(s):
8149–8158
Restricted access

Abstract

In the tropics, the atmospheric circulation response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is a crucial part of the tropical air–sea interaction—the primary process of tropical climate. How it will change under global warming is of great importance to tropical climate change. Here, it is shown that the atmospheric vertical circulation response to local SST anomalies will likely be weakened under global warming using 28 selected models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The weakening of the circulation response to SST anomalies is closely tied to the increased atmospheric stability under global warming, which increases at the same rate as the circulation response decreases—around 8% for 1 K of tropical-mean SST warming. The spatial pattern of background warming can modify—especially in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific—the spatial distribution of the changes in the circulation response. The atmospheric response to SST anomalies may increase where the local background warming is pronouncedly greater than the tropical mean. The general weakening of the atmospheric circulation response to SST anomalies leads to a decreased circulation response to the structured variability of tropical SST anomalies, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean dipole. The decreased circulation response will offset some of the enhancement of the tropical rainfall response to these SST modes as a result of global-warming-induced moisture increase and also implies a decreased amplitude of the tropical air–sea interaction modes.

Supplemental information related to this paper is available at the Journals Online website: https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0171.s1.

© 2017 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Dr. Ping Huang, huangping@mail.iap.ac.cn

Abstract

In the tropics, the atmospheric circulation response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is a crucial part of the tropical air–sea interaction—the primary process of tropical climate. How it will change under global warming is of great importance to tropical climate change. Here, it is shown that the atmospheric vertical circulation response to local SST anomalies will likely be weakened under global warming using 28 selected models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The weakening of the circulation response to SST anomalies is closely tied to the increased atmospheric stability under global warming, which increases at the same rate as the circulation response decreases—around 8% for 1 K of tropical-mean SST warming. The spatial pattern of background warming can modify—especially in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific—the spatial distribution of the changes in the circulation response. The atmospheric response to SST anomalies may increase where the local background warming is pronouncedly greater than the tropical mean. The general weakening of the atmospheric circulation response to SST anomalies leads to a decreased circulation response to the structured variability of tropical SST anomalies, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean dipole. The decreased circulation response will offset some of the enhancement of the tropical rainfall response to these SST modes as a result of global-warming-induced moisture increase and also implies a decreased amplitude of the tropical air–sea interaction modes.

Supplemental information related to this paper is available at the Journals Online website: https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0171.s1.

© 2017 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Dr. Ping Huang, huangping@mail.iap.ac.cn

Supplementary Materials

    • Supplemental Materials (PDF 7.12 MB)
Save
Cover Journal of Climate
Journal of Climate

  • Byrne, M. P., and T. Schneider, 2016: Narrowing of the ITCZ in a warming climate: Physical mechanisms. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 11 350–11 357, doi:10.1002/2016GL070396.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cai, W., X.-T. Zheng, E. Weller, M. Collins, T. Cowan, M. Lengaigne, W. Yu, and T. Yamagata, 2013: Projected response of the Indian Ocean dipole to greenhouse warming. Nat. Geosci., 6, 999–1007, doi:10.1038/ngeo2009.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cai, W., A. Santoso, G. Wang, E. Weller, L. Wu, K. Ashok,Y. Masumoto, and T. Yamagata, 2014a: Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean dipole events due to greenhouse warming. Nature, 510, 254–258, doi:10.1038/nature13327.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cai, W., and Coauthors, 2014b: Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming. Nat. Climate Change, 4, 111–116, doi:10.1038/nclimate2100.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cai, W., and Coauthors, 2015: ENSO and greenhouse warming. Nat. Climate Change, 5, 849–859, doi:10.1038/nclimate2743.

  • Chiang, J. C. H., and A. R. Friedman, 2012: Extratropical cooling, interhemispheric thermal gradients, and tropical climate change. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 40, 383–412, doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-042711-105545.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chou, C., T.-C. Wu, and P.-H. Tan, 2013: Changes in gross moist stability in the tropics under global warming. Climate Dyn., 41, 2481–2496, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1703-2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Christensen, J. H., and Coauthors, 2013: Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 1217–1308.

  • Collins, M., and Coauthors, 2010: The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific ocean and El Niño. Nat. Geosci., 3, 391–397, doi:10.1038/ngeo868.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Deser, C., M. A. Alexander, S.-P. Xie, and A. S. Phillips, 2010: Sea surface temperature variability: Patterns and mechanisms. Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 2, 115–143, doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-120408-151453.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Emanuel, K., 2007: Quasi-equilibrium dynamics of the tropical atmosphere. The Global Circulation of the Atmosphere, T. Schneider and A. H. Sobel, Eds., Princeton University Press, 186–218.

  • Graham, N., and T. P. Barnett, 1987: Observations of sea surface temperature and convection over tropical oceans. Science, 238, 657–659, doi:10.1126/science.238.4827.657.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate, 19, 5686–5699, doi:10.1175/JCLI3990.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Huang, B., and Coauthors, 2015: Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 4 (ERSST.V4). Part I: Upgrades and intercomparisons. J. Climate, 28, 911–930, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00006.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Huang, P., and S.-P. Xie, 2015: Mechanisms of change in ENSO-induced tropical Pacific rainfall variability in a warming climate. Nat. Geosci., 8, 922–926, doi:10.1038/ngeo2571.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Huang, P., and J. Ying, 2015: A multimodel ensemble pattern regression method to correct the tropical Pacific SST change patterns under global warming. J. Climate, 28, 4706–4723, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00833.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Huang, P., and D. Chen, 2017: Enlarged asymmetry of tropical Pacific rainfall anomalies induced by El Niño and La Niña under global warming. J. Climate, 30, 1327–1343, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0427.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Johnson, N. C., and S.-P. Xie, 2010: Changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection. Nat. Geosci., 3, 842–845, doi:10.1038/ngeo1008.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437–471, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kleeman, R., 1991: A simple model of the atmospheric response to ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 3–19, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1991)048<0003:ASMOTA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lu, J., G. Chen, and D. M. W. Frierson, 2008: Response of the zonal mean atmospheric circulation to El Niño versus global warming. J. Climate, 21, 5835–5851, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2200.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Ma, J., S.-P. Xie, and Y. Kosaka, 2012: Mechanisms for tropical tropospheric circulation change in response to global warming. J. Climate, 25, 2979–2994, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00048.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Ma, J., R. Chadwick, K.-H. Seo, C. Dong, G. Huang, G. R. Foltz, and J. H. Jiang, 2017: Responses of the tropical atmospheric circulation to climate change and connection to the hydrological cycle. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., in press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Neelin, J., D. Battisti, A. Hirst, F. Jin, Y. Wakata, T. Yamagata, and S. Zebiak, 1998: ENSO theory. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14 261–14 290, doi:10.1029/97JC03424.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • O’Gorman, P. A., and C. J. Muller, 2010: How closely do changes in surface and column water vapor follow Clausius–Clapeyron scaling in climate change simulations? Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 025207, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025207.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Philander, S. G., 1990: El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation. Academic Press, 293 pp.

  • Philip, S., and G. Van Oldenborgh, 2006: Shifts in ENSO coupling processes under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L11704, doi:10.1029/2006GL026196.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Power, S., F. Delage, C. Chung, G. Kociuba, and K. Keay, 2013: Robust twenty-first-century projections of El Niño and related precipitation variability. Nature, 502, 541–545, doi:10.1038/nature12580.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Raymond, D. J., and M. J. Herman, 2011: Convective quasi-equilibrium reconsidered. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 3, M08003, doi:10.1029/2011ms000079.

  • Saji, N., B. Goswami, P. Vinayachandran, and T. Yamagata, 1999: A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature, 401, 360–363.

  • Schneider, T., P. A. O’Gorman, and X. J. Levine, 2010: Water vapor and the dynamics of climate changes. Rev. Geophys., 48, RG3001, doi:10.1029/2009RG000302.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485–498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Vecchi, G. A., and B. J. Soden, 2007: Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation. J. Climate, 20, 4316–4340, doi:10.1175/JCLI4258.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Vecchi, G. A., B. J. Soden, A. T. Wittenberg, I. M. Held, A. Leetmaa, and M. J. Harrison, 2006: Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature, 441, 73–76, doi:10.1038/nature04744.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Wang, B., and T. Li, 1993: A simple tropical atmosphere model of relevance to short-term climate variations. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 260–284, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1993)050<0260:ASTAMO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Webster, P. J., A. M. Moore, J. P. Loschnigg, and R. R. Leben, 1999: Coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997–98. Nature, 401, 356–360, doi:10.1038/43848.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Wu, R., and B. P. Kirtman, 2005: Roles of Indian and Pacific Ocean air–sea coupling in tropical atmospheric variability. Climate Dyn., 25, 155–170, doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0003-x.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Wu, R., B. P. Kirtman, and K. Pegion, 2006: Local air–sea relationship in observations and model simulations. J. Climate, 19, 4914–4932, doi:10.1175/JCLI3904.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Xie, S.-P., C. Deser, G. A. Vecchi, J. Ma, H. Teng, and A. T. Wittenberg, 2010: Global warming pattern formation: Sea surface temperature and rainfall. J. Climate, 23, 966–986, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3329.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Zheng, X.-T., S.-P. Xie, G. A. Vecchi, Q. Liu, and J. Hafner, 2010: Indian Ocean dipole response to global warming: Analysis of ocean–atmospheric feedbacks in a coupled model. J. Climate, 23, 1240–1253, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3326.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 690 155 9
PDF Downloads 577 94 8