Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Anthropogenic and Natural Contributions to the Lengthening of the Summer Season in the Northern Hemisphere

Bo-Joung Park Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, Gyeongbuk, South Korea

Search for other papers by Bo-Joung Park in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Yeon-Hee Kim Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, Gyeongbuk, South Korea

Search for other papers by Yeon-Hee Kim in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Seung-Ki Min Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, Gyeongbuk, South Korea

Search for other papers by Seung-Ki Min in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
, and
Eun-Pa Lim Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Search for other papers by Eun-Pa Lim in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
01 Sep 2018
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0643.1
Page(s):
6803–6819
Restricted access

Abstract

Observed long-term variations in summer season timing and length in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continents and their subregions were analyzed using temperature-based indices. The climatological mean showed coastal–inland contrast; summer starts and ends earlier inland than in coastal areas because of differences in heat capacity. Observations for the past 60 years (1953–2012) show lengthening of the summer season with earlier summer onset and delayed summer withdrawal across the NH. The summer onset advance contributed more to the observed increase in summer season length in many regions than the delay of summer withdrawal. To understand anthropogenic and natural contributions to the observed change, summer season trends from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel simulations forced with the observed external forcings [anthropogenic plus natural forcing (ALL), natural forcing only (NAT), and greenhouse gas forcing only (GHG)] were analyzed. ALL and GHG simulations were found to reproduce the overall observed global and regional lengthening trends, but NAT had negligible trends, which implies that increased greenhouse gases were the main cause of the observed changes. However, ALL runs tend to underestimate the observed trend of summer onset and overestimate that of withdrawal, the causes of which remain to be determined. Possible contributions of multidecadal variabilities, such as Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, to the observed regional trends in summer season length were also assessed. The results suggest that multidecadal variability can explain a moderate portion (about ±10%) of the observed trends in summer season length, mainly over the high latitudes.

© 2018 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Seung-Ki Min, skmin@postech.ac.kr

Abstract

Observed long-term variations in summer season timing and length in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continents and their subregions were analyzed using temperature-based indices. The climatological mean showed coastal–inland contrast; summer starts and ends earlier inland than in coastal areas because of differences in heat capacity. Observations for the past 60 years (1953–2012) show lengthening of the summer season with earlier summer onset and delayed summer withdrawal across the NH. The summer onset advance contributed more to the observed increase in summer season length in many regions than the delay of summer withdrawal. To understand anthropogenic and natural contributions to the observed change, summer season trends from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel simulations forced with the observed external forcings [anthropogenic plus natural forcing (ALL), natural forcing only (NAT), and greenhouse gas forcing only (GHG)] were analyzed. ALL and GHG simulations were found to reproduce the overall observed global and regional lengthening trends, but NAT had negligible trends, which implies that increased greenhouse gases were the main cause of the observed changes. However, ALL runs tend to underestimate the observed trend of summer onset and overestimate that of withdrawal, the causes of which remain to be determined. Possible contributions of multidecadal variabilities, such as Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, to the observed regional trends in summer season length were also assessed. The results suggest that multidecadal variability can explain a moderate portion (about ±10%) of the observed trends in summer season length, mainly over the high latitudes.

© 2018 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Seung-Ki Min, skmin@postech.ac.kr
Save
Cover Journal of Climate
Journal of Climate

  • Allen, M. R., and P. A. Stott, 2003: Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting, part I: Theory. Climate Dyn., 21, 477–491, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0313-9.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Barriopedro, D., E. M. Fisher, J. Luterbacher, R. M. Trigo, and R. García-Herrera, 2011: The hot summer of 2010: Redrawing the temperature record map of Europe. Science, 332, 220–224, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1201224.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bell, J. L., L. C. Sloan, and M. A. Snyder, 2004: Regional changes in extreme climatic events: A future climatic scenario. J. Climate, 17, 81–87, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0081:RCIECE>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bertram, D. F., D. L. Mackas, and S. M. McKinnell, 2001: The seasonal cycle revisited: Interannual variation and ecosystem consequences. Prog. Oceanogr., 49, 283–307, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0079-6611(01)00027-1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Caesar, J., L. Alexanderm, and R. Vose, 2006: Large-scale changes in observed daily maximum and minimum temperatures: Creation and analysis of a new gridded data set. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D05101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006280.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cayan, D. R., S. A. Kammerdiener, M. D. Dettinger, J. M. Caprio, and D. H. Peterson, 2001: Changes in the onset of spring in the western United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 399–415, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<0399:CITOOS>2.3.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Christidis, N., D. J. Karoly, and J. Caesar, 2007: Human contribution to the lengthening of the growing season during 1950–99. J. Climate, 20, 5441–5454, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1568.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cornes, R., P. Jones, and C. Qian, 2017: Twentieth-century trends in the annual cycle of temperature across the Northern Hemisphere. J. Climate, 30, 5755–5773, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0315.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dwyer, J. G., M. Biasutti, and A. H. Sobel, 2012: Projected changes in the seasonal cycle of surface temperature. J. Climate, 25, 6359–6374, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00741.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gao, L. H., Z. W. Yan, and X. W. Quan, 2015: Observed and SST-forced multidecadal variability in global land surface air temperature. Climate Dyn., 44, 359–369, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2121-9.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Groisman, P. Ya., T. P. Karl, and R. W. Knight, 1994: Observed impact of snow cover on the heat balance and the rise of continental spring temperature. Science, 263, 198–200, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.263.5144.198.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hamed, K. H., and A. Ramachandra Rao, 1998: A modified Mann–Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. J. Hydrol., 204, 182–196, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00125-X.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Henley, B. J., J. Gergis, D. J. Karoly, S. Power, J. Kennedy, and C. K. Folland, 2015: A tripole index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Climate Dyn., 45, 3077–3090, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2525-1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Katz, R. W., and B. G. Brown, 1992: Extreme events in a changing climate: Variability is more important than averages. Climatic Change, 21, 289–302, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139728.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Klein Tank, A. M. G., and G. P. Können, 2003: Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe, 1946–99. J. Climate, 16, 3665–3680, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3665:TIIODT>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Leibensperger, E. M., and Coauthors, 2012: Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols—Part 2: Climate response. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 3349–3362, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-3349-2012.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Manabe, S., M. J. Spelman, and R. J. Stouffer, 1992: Transient responses of a coupled ocean–atmosphere model to gradual changes of atmospheric CO2. Part II: Seasonal response. J. Climate, 5, 105–126, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005<0105:TROACO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mann, M. E., and J. Park, 1996: Greenhouse warming and changes in the seasonal cycle of temperature: Model versus observations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 1111–1114, https://doi.org/10.1029/96GL01066.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mantua, N. J., S. R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis, 1997: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 1069–1079, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Meehl, G. A., J. M. Arblaster, and G. Branstator, 2012: Mechanisms contributing to the warming hole and the consequent U.S. east–west differential of heat extremes. J. Climate, 25, 6394–6408, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00655.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Menzel, A., and P. Fabian, 1999: Growing season extended in Europe. Nature, 397, 659, https://doi.org/10.1038/17709.

  • Paik, S., S.-K. Min, Y.-H. Kim, B.-M. Kim, H. Shiogama, and J. Heo, 2017: Attributing causes of 2015 record minimum sea-ice extent in the Sea of Okhotsk. J. Climate, 30, 4693–4703, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0587.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Pan, Z., R. W. Arritt, E. S. Takle, W. J. Gutowski Jr., C. J. Anderson, and M. Segal, 2004: Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming climate introduces a “warming hole.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L17109, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020528.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Parmesan, C., 2006: Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst., 37, 637–669, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Peña-Ortiz, C., D. Barriopedro, and R. Garcia-Herrera, 2015: Multidecadal variability of the summer length in Europe. J. Climate, 28, 5375–5388, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00429.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Portmann, R. W., S. Solomon, and G. C. Hegerl, 2009: Spatial and seasonal patterns in climate change, temperatures, and precipitation across the United States. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 7324–7329, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0808533106.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Qian, C., and X. Zhang, 2015: Human influences on changes in the temperature seasonality in mid- to high-latitude land areas. J. Climate, 28, 5908–5921, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00821.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Qian, C., C. B. Fu, Z. Wu, and Z. W. Yan, 2011: The role of changes in the annual cycle in earlier onset of climatic spring in northern China. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 28, 284–296, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-010-9221-1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Qian, C., Z. W. Yan, and C. B. Fu, 2012: Climatic changes in the twenty-four solar terms during 1960–2008. Chin. Sci. Bull., 57, 276–286, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-011-4724-4.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Schwartz, M. D., R. Ahas, and A. Aasa, 2006: Onset of spring starting earlier across the Northern Hemisphere. Global Change Biol., 12, 343–351, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01097.x.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Song, Y., H. W. Linderholm, D. Chen, and A. Walther, 2010: Trends of the thermal growing season in China, 1951–2007. Int. J. Climatol., 30, 33–43, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1868.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Stine, A. R., P. Huybers, and I. Y. Fung, 2009: Changes in the phase of the annual cycle of surface temperature. Nature, 457, 435–440, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07675.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Stine, A. R., and P. Huybers, 2012: Changes in the seasonal cycle of temperature and atmospheric circulation. J. Climate, 25, 7362–7380, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00470.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Taylor, K. E., 2001: Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 7183–7192, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900719.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Trenberth, K. E., 1983: What are the seasons? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 64, 1276–1277, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1983)064<1276:WATS>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Trenberth, K. E., and D. J. Shea, 2006: Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L12704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026894.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Vecchi, G. A., T. L. Delworth, and B. Booth, 2017: Climate science: Origins of Atlantic decadal swings. Nature, 548, 284–285, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature23538.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Wallace, C. J., and T. J. Osborn, 2002: Recent and future modulation of the annual cycle. Climate Res., 22, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr022001.

  • Walther, R., and Coauthors, 2002: Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature, 416, 389–395, https://doi.org/10.1038/416389a.

  • Wu, Z. H., N. E. Huang, J. M. Wallace, B. V. Smoliak, and X. Y. Chen, 2011: On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature. Climate Dyn., 37, 759–773, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1128-8.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 1738 569 58
PDF Downloads 937 315 32