Strong Modulation of the Pacific Meridional Mode on the Occurrence of Intense Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Si Gao Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

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Langfeng Zhu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

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Wei Zhang IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa

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Zhifan Chen Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

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Abstract

This study finds a significant positive correlation between the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) index and the frequency of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the peak TC season (June–November). The PMM influences the occurrence of intense TCs mainly by modulating large-scale dynamical conditions over the main development region. During the positive PMM phase, anomalous off-equatorial heating in the eastern Pacific induces anomalous low-level westerlies (and cyclonic flow) and upper-level easterlies (and anticyclonic flow) over a large portion of the main development region through a Matsuno–Gill-type Rossby wave response. The resulting weaker vertical wind shear and larger low-level relative vorticity favor the genesis of intense TCs over the southeastern part of the WNP and their subsequent intensification over the main development region. The PMM index would therefore be a valuable predictor for the frequency of intense TCs over the WNP.

© 2018 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Wei Zhang, wei-zhang-3@uiowa.edu

Abstract

This study finds a significant positive correlation between the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) index and the frequency of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the peak TC season (June–November). The PMM influences the occurrence of intense TCs mainly by modulating large-scale dynamical conditions over the main development region. During the positive PMM phase, anomalous off-equatorial heating in the eastern Pacific induces anomalous low-level westerlies (and cyclonic flow) and upper-level easterlies (and anticyclonic flow) over a large portion of the main development region through a Matsuno–Gill-type Rossby wave response. The resulting weaker vertical wind shear and larger low-level relative vorticity favor the genesis of intense TCs over the southeastern part of the WNP and their subsequent intensification over the main development region. The PMM index would therefore be a valuable predictor for the frequency of intense TCs over the WNP.

© 2018 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Wei Zhang, wei-zhang-3@uiowa.edu
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